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How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

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Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#151

Post by throwaway290 »

almostgotcaught wrote: post #130
throwaway290 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

here's another trend: every time a person is on this hype bandwagon ask them how much are they invested in nvidia/ms/openai/etc I am not invested in anything except popcorn to watch it burst;)

But see that's exactly my point - I am invested so actually I don't go around "talking my book" but you have zero skin in the game so your opinion matters about as much as Bob down at the bar watching the game on TV.

If you're invested you have interest to say it's good regardless of reality. because if it's bad first you need to sell off to avoid being the bagholder

Yes you can say you're honest and stuff but does it mean anything if you can go broke from honesty.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#152

Post by infecto »

ojosilva wrote: post #111
infecto wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep hearing this but I don’t know of many folks utilizing Chinese models, even those hosted in an agreeable territory.

Yeah, I'm one of them, using Qwen 3 coder on Cerebras as coding agent through CC. What I keep hearing is (very ballpark anecdata)... 50% of people into coding agents are quite concerned about that last mile in difference with frontier models that they "can't afford to lose" - my experience tells me otherwise, the difference is negligible once you have a good setup going and knows how to tune your model + agent. The o…

Which I find all well and good but you are in the minority. For myself I have no interest in learning any of those things, I value my time differently. Which is totally fine and great for both of us. But going back to the point, most folks are not using these Chinese models.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#153

Post by almostgotcaught »

throwaway290 wrote: post #151
almostgotcaught wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But see that's exactly my point - I am invested so actually I don't go around "talking my book" but you have zero skin in the game so your opinion matters about as much as Bob down at the bar watching the game on TV.

If you're invested you have interest to say it's good regardless of reality. because if it's bad first you need to sell off to avoid being the bagholder Yes you can say you're honest and stuff but does it mean anything if you can go broke from honesty.

I have no idea what you're saying - I said I don't talk my book - that means I'm not out here pontificating like Jim Cramer and half of hn.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#154

Post by smsm42 »

almostgotcaught wrote: post #131
lbreakjai wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a dishonest argument. For a short to work, you need to be right about the direction _and_ the timing. Being right too soon amounts to being wrong, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

> market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. This is more mantra - professional shorts exist and they make money. So either you know something (in which case you'd be mum about it and just placing your bets) or you know nothing.

> professional shorts exist

You can't both talk about "professional shorts" and use it as an argument against somebody who is not a financial professional. This argument is invalid because not every person who is skeptical about current AI companies' perspectives is willing or able to become a professional short just to make a point on it. One can have a perfectly valid argument and still not be a professional short based on it.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#155

Post by smsm42 »

almostgotcaught wrote: post #149
Attrecomet wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. What we can do is make sure we're not overextended on the bubble participants, but that's about it. No amount of hype from your side can make it a non-bubble market when OpenAI and other companies make wild and impossible to fulfi…

> Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. "The bubble is both obvious and also completely unpredictable". Makes sense.

Yes, it does. You may know what there would be realignment, but you don't know where or how, and may not possess the professional knowledge and resources required to profit from it directly. The known part is general, the unknown part is specific and time-dependent.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#156

Post by throwaway290 »

almostgotcaught wrote: post #153
throwaway290 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're invested you have interest to say it's good regardless of reality. because if it's bad first you need to sell off to avoid being the bagholder Yes you can say you're honest and stuff but does it mean anything if you can go broke from honesty.

I have no idea what you're saying - I said I don't talk my book - that means I'm not out here pontificating like Jim Cramer and half of hn.

you are taking your book by implying all the naysayers are secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype. let's see how long copium lasts.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#157

Post by almostgotcaught »

smsm42 wrote: post #155
almostgotcaught wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. "The bubble is both obvious and also completely unpredictable". Makes sense.

Yes, it does. You may know what there would be realignment, but you don't know where or how, and may not possess the professional knowledge and resources required to profit from it directly. The known part is general, the unknown part is specific and time-dependent.

Someone else already said: yes all companies go to zero on a timeline that includes the heat death of the universe. Your claim is about as clever as that.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#158

Post by almostgotcaught »

throwaway290 wrote: post #156
almostgotcaught wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea what you're saying - I said I don't talk my book - that means I'm not out here pontificating like Jim Cramer and half of hn.

you are taking your book by implying all the naysayers are secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype. let's see how long copium lasts.

> secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype

that's literally the exact opposite of what i'm saying - literally read my responce to comments up chain.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#159

Post by ludicity »

VirusNewbie wrote: post #137
ludicity wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm much more skeptical about this for two major reasons. Firstly, a huge amount of labour that can be accelerated by LLMs fall into the "bullshit jobs" category, where you can make someone faster at writing emails but the emails themselves don't really contribute much value. The majority of LLM use I see falls into this category. Many people can speed up parts of their job, but you can add as much efficiency as you…

You don't need to remove rolls if it makes everyone 10% better at their job. You think companies like paying for Office 365? That's barely a value add compared to free versions, but every company on the planet forks over money for that.

To clarify, I'm saying adding 10% to a reasonably useless job is still 0%.

And secondly, maybe not an important point, but the paid version of O365 is something even my team has been forced to buy. The free versions paywall very important features. The free Word can't delete section breaks!

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#160

Post by throwaway290 »

almostgotcaught wrote: post #158
throwaway290 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are taking your book by implying all the naysayers are secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype. let's see how long copium lasts.

> secretly shorting the stock instead of having reasons to think it's empty hype that's literally the exact opposite of what i'm saying - literally read my responce to comments up chain.

Interesting

> i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? please let us know.

To me people with short positions likely be bending the truth. To you they are honest. Funny

There's a reason why investing must be declared in many situations. and it is because they are a conflict of interest not proof of honesty

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