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Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

boydkane.com

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Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right away my mind went to "well, are people more reliable than they used to be?" and I'm not sure they are. Of course LLMs aren't people, but an AGI might behave like a person.

Older people are generally more reliable than younger people.

I'm not sure that's generally true. However, older people have a track record, and a reliable older person is likely to be more reliable than a younger person without such a track record.

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#152

70 years ago we were fascinated by the concept of converting analog to a perfect digital copy. In reality, that goal was a pipe drea!m and the closest we can ever get is a near identical facimile to which data fits... But it's still quite easy to determine digital from true analog with rudimentary means. Human thought is analog. It is based on chemical reactions, time, and unpredictably (effectively) random physical…

This is all true. But digital audio and video media has captured essentially all economic value outside of live performance. So it seems likely that we will find a "good enough" in this domain too.

Interesting point with economic value extraction. The economy sacrificed accuracy and warmth of analog storage for convenience and security of digital storage. With economic incentive I am sure society will sacrifice accuracy and precision for the convenience of AI

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#153
post #140

For a real world example of the challenges of harnessing LLMs, look at Apple. Over a year ago they had a big product launch focused on "Apple Intelligence" that was supposed to make heavy use of LLMs for agentic workflows. But all we've really gotten since then are a couple of minor tools for making emojis, summarizing notifications, and proof reading. And they even had to roll back the notification summaries for a w…

I'm happy they ate shit here because I like my mac not getting co-pilot bullshit forced into it, but apparently Apple had two separate teams competing against each other on this topic. Supposedly a lot of politics got in the way of delivering on a good product combined with the general difficulty of building LLM products.

I do prefer that Apple is opting to have everything run on device so you aren’t being exposed to privacy risks or subscriptions. Even if it means their models won’t be as good as ones running on $30,000 GPUs.

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#155
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a sci-fi thing, think of it along the lines of "What do you mean Skynet has gone rogue? Can't you just turn it off?" (I think something along these lines was actually in the Terminator 3 movie, the one where Skynet goes live for the first time). Agreed though, no relation to the actual post.

This sci-fi thing goes as far back as the 1983 movie WarGames, where they wanted to pull the plug on a rogue computer, but there was a reason you couldn’t do that: McKittrick: General, the machine has locked us out. It's sending random numbers to the silos. Pat Healy: Codes. To launch the missiles. General Beringer: Just unplug the goddamn thing! Jesus Christ! McKittrick: That won't work, General. It would interpret…

In real life it won’t be that the computer prevents you from turning it off. It’ll be that the computer is guarded by cultists who think its god, and unstoppable market forces that require it to keep running.

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#156

For a real world example of the challenges of harnessing LLMs, look at Apple. Over a year ago they had a big product launch focused on "Apple Intelligence" that was supposed to make heavy use of LLMs for agentic workflows. But all we've really gotten since then are a couple of minor tools for making emojis, summarizing notifications, and proof reading. And they even had to roll back the notification summaries for a w…

> I think Apple execs genuinely underestimated how difficult it would be to get LLMs to perform up to Apple's typical standards of polish and control

Not only Apple, this is happening across the industry. Executives' expectations of what AI can deliver are massively inflated by Amodei et al. essentially promising human-level cognition with every release.

The reality is aside from coding assistants and chatbot interfaces (a la chatgpt) we've yet to see AI truly transform polished ecosystems like smartphones and OS' for a reason.

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#157
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm happy they ate shit here because I like my mac not getting co-pilot bullshit forced into it, but apparently Apple had two separate teams competing against each other on this topic. Supposedly a lot of politics got in the way of delivering on a good product combined with the general difficulty of building LLM products.

I do prefer that Apple is opting to have everything run on device so you aren’t being exposed to privacy risks or subscriptions. Even if it means their models won’t be as good as ones running on $30,000 GPUs.

It also means that when the VC money runs dry, it's sustainable to run those models on-device vs. losing money running on those $$$$$ GPUs (or requiring consumers to opt for expensive subscriptions).

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#158
post #4

The most likely danger with AI is concentrated power, not that sentient AI will develop a dislike for us and use us as "batteries" like in the Matrix.

To me, the greatest threat is information pollution. Primary sources will be diluted so heavily in an ocean of generated trash that you might as well not even bother to look through any of it.

It’s already been happening but now it’s accelerated beyond belief. I saw a video about how WW1 reenactment photos end up getting reposted away from their original context and confused with original photos to the point it’s impossible to tell unless you can track it back to the source.

Now most of the photos online are just AI generated.

Re: Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI

#159
post #4

The most likely danger with AI is concentrated power, not that sentient AI will develop a dislike for us and use us as "batteries" like in the Matrix.

I mean, you can't really disprove either being an issue.
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