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US to rewrite its past national climate reports

france24.com

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Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't want to trust the priests, fine. Go do the work yourself. Or take no position at all. Actively rejecting the work of scientists based solely on ideology, that is religion, in the worst sense of the word. They're not heretics. They're just liars.

You could replace the word “scientist” with “priest” in your post and it would be no different. Rejecting or accepting based on ideology is wrong. And given we lack the technical ability to fully understand global warming, there is no objective truth here.

Some objective truths we know:

• We know the effects of CO2 on the transmission of electromagnetic radiation and how this varies by frequency. Same for the other gases in the atmosphere.

• We know how much energy is coming into the system from solar radiation, which we also know accounts for almost all incoming energy. We know the frequency distribution of this energy.

• We can measure the outgoing energy, and see that there is an imbalance with incoming higher than outgoing.

• We can measure incoming and outgoing at the surface, and at various levels in the atmosphere, to track down where that net energy increase is ending up. Infrared is in the frequency range that CO2 blocks.

• We can measure incoming and outgoing energy at various levels in the atmosphere and measure temperature and see that blocking the outgoing infrared heats the atmosphere.

• We can see that this heating effect is a function of CO2 concentration, which he can observe is going up over time, and we can see that the amount of heating increase over time closely matches the amount of heating we would expect from the increasing CO2.

The above just takes lab work (e.g., characterizing how various gases affect radiation transmission), measurements of incoming and outgoing energy flow, spectrum, and temperature of the system as a whole (satellites can do this) and at the surface and at various layers of the atmosphere.

That shows that warming is occurring, and it is almost all due to increasing greenhouse gases.

That doesn't show that humans are responsible for this increasing gases. For that we have:

• Carbon comes in different isotopes. There is an isotope with a half-life of about 5700 years that is created in the upper atmosphere from cosmic rays and then spreads throughout the atmosphere. The other two isotopes common in the atmosphere are stable. By looking at the ratios of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 we can determine that the large increases in atmospheric CO2 come from sources that have little or none of the radioactive carbon.

Living things and dead things that have not been dead for a very long time do have significant amounts of the radioactive isotope because living (this is the basis for carbon dating). That lets us rule out things like wildfires as a significant contribution to the increases CO2.

The major ways to get excess stable carbon isotopes in the atmosphere are volcanoes and digging up and burning fossil fuels. We know that most of the increase comes from fossil fuels rather than volcanoes or other geological activity because:

• We know how much fossil fuels are burned each year and so can calculate how much carbon that will release into the atmosphere and that accounts for almost all of the observed excess stable carbon.

• We can monitor volcanic activity and see that it is not high enough to be a major contributor. Maybe we've missed a lot of volcanoes or other geological sources, but if we have we know that they can't be omitting much because the ones we do know about plus the amount from our known fossil fuel use accounts for almost all of the observed excess.

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#152
post #24

The study questioned whether heat records are truly increasing and whether extreme weather is worsening. I thought we were past that. I thought that it was now about questioning whether it was human caused, or the size of the impact. Apparently we really are going back, and revisiting basic arithmetic.

I believe in global warming, but the quasi religious responses here are hard to read. Conserving the environment and taking steps to reduce our impact on the planet is a good thing. To that end, I’m ok with believing in global warming. I believe some of the narrative is used for selfish ends (green energy companies are looking to make a profit, too) and abused, but on the whole it’s a noble cause. The replies here th…

unfortunately it's really common in humans to find ways to belong, and lots of people find this in politics. there are lies everywhere from everyone, there's a reason politicians have a reputation first and foremost as liars. and to pretend climate change isn't a political topic is burying one's head in the sand - people are going to lie about, which we factually see all the time.

however when you start to identify with a group, you start to reject anything that doesn't reinforce your existing stance and group think. this is a really human trait and goes back to humans needing to be able to feel things like guilt and shame and desiring things like acceptance and validation, because these traits were what allowed us to live as groups and in small societies, when being in these groups vs ostracized was the difference between life and death.

mansplaining aside, i agree. i do wish there was more honest and interesting discourse around many topics, rather than things devolving into "everything this sexual predator says is fake and wrong". which isn't to defend them, but rather to share the exhaustion that discussion that isnt focused around science and data and instead is mostly talking points from our overlords.

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could replace the word “scientist” with “priest” in your post and it would be no different. Rejecting or accepting based on ideology is wrong. And given we lack the technical ability to fully understand global warming, there is no objective truth here.

We don't fully understand cosmology therefore the universe does not exist?

i mean, does it? we can't answer some really important questions about the nature of the universe, and we literally can't even start to model very important areas of physics that we know must have existed. it's hard to think we can honestly answer what exists versus what doesn't when we can't even comprehend or guess at the enormity of what's being asked.

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty pointless nitpick. It's akin to saying that a large meteor strike is not the end of the world because the planet will still be here.

[flagged]

Were you paid to write this gibberish?

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for that, I have edited my (hasty/poorly-worded) comment.

No drama, as first worded it irked my experience in multichannel geophysical processing; every data source has potential biases, tweaks, scaling, shifts and normalizing applied to get them to best fit and reveal a larger picture. eg: https://www.ga.gov.au/bigobj/GA13928.pdf as an example of stitching 40 years of survey data collected with a range of different instruments and procedures. In the climate domain the same…

This is an excellent example too -- all too often science reporting will just put in the headline "Updated historical temperatures make threat of global warming (less|more) serious!" -- and folks latch on to "how can history change?!?!" and immediatly go to conspiracy theories, rather than trying to understand the subtlty of what's actually going on

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#156
post #43
post #24

The study questioned whether heat records are truly increasing and whether extreme weather is worsening. I thought we were past that. I thought that it was now about questioning whether it was human caused, or the size of the impact. Apparently we really are going back, and revisiting basic arithmetic.

I would say we are largely past the second threshold too (that the warming is human caused). The last IPCC report had as the first statement in the summary for policymakers (from WG1 - the physical science group) A.1 It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred. The previous report (from…

OP is talking about people who reject climate change. If you know many, youll likely note most do not deny climate change but instead deny that it is man made, which is an easier delusion to maintain.

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#158
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"If we stopped testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any"

"All new numbers". Honestly I think this stuff goes very under-reported. The world has become so used to anti-intellectualism that simple ignorance in the highest office(s) is now excusable, and criticising it is implicitly cast as political. Which is a state of affairs that can be weaponised. (Lest people think I am sniping at the USA from the UK, I'd observe that we as a nation were bounced into a monumental decisi…

> Honestly I think this stuff goes very under-reported.

It's not under-reported generally, it's that a large portion of the population only watches certain news channels that do not report what's going on. That's why the Epstein case is such a big issue for Trump, because it's been pushed so hard by the news his supporters watch. They don't care about the blatant corruption on a scale never seen because they don't know about it. But Epstein is a foundational MAGA conspiracy.

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you see, carbon emissions can also be reduced by moving production to china and not looking too hard how they do it. Yay for climate champion Europe!

In 2020, China had 253GW of total solar capacity. In 2024, China installed 277GW of additional solar capacity. In June, they were up to 1,100GW of total solar capacity. In 2023, 60% of the global solar installation happened in China. China is so far ahead of the world in green energy it's ridiculous. We can't pretend that it's still 1995 and China still gets most of its energy from coal anymore.

https://www.iea.org/countries/china/energy-mix

Their green energy line _is_ on the increase, but it's effectively flat compared to the growth lines on coal and oil.

Re: US to rewrite its past national climate reports

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't want to trust the priests, fine. Go do the work yourself. Or take no position at all. Actively rejecting the work of scientists based solely on ideology, that is religion, in the worst sense of the word. They're not heretics. They're just liars.

You could replace the word “scientist” with “priest” in your post and it would be no different. Rejecting or accepting based on ideology is wrong. And given we lack the technical ability to fully understand global warming, there is no objective truth here.

> You could replace the word “scientist” with “priest” in your post and it would be no different.

No. Scientist seek to understand and change their beliefs as the facts become clear - the scientific method. Science is self correcting. Some people attack science for self-correcting, but that's literally the point of science.

Priests OTOH do not look to self-correct. Religion is built on myths, and without those myths it will no longer exist. The only ones relying on myths are those still denying climate change.

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