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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#151

Post by JohnKemeny »

nickff wrote: post #108
Spooky23 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. My Honda Accord’s cruise control is totally the same as the defective on arrival robot taxi.

I have heard of at least one case where someone thought that cruise control could operate as an un-supervised 'autopilot' and nearly died; I believe their (almost new) RV went off some sort of cliff.

There's a difference between someone not understanding the functionality of their car, and the CEO openly deceiving the public about the functionality of their car.

If this RV manufacturer's CEO said that the cruise control was FSD, yes then one can understand the user's confusion.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#152

Post by Gud »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

What do you mean, ~desperate attempt~? The robotaxi has literally been the goal from the very beginning.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#153

Post by const_cast »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #46
ceejayoz wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cruise in SF was a bit of a freak accident. The ensuing cover-up attempt wasn't, though.

I think we can agree that people trying to cover-up a horrific accident by lying to regulators is a somewhat different issue though.

The same hubris that powers faulty and half-baked implementations is responsible for lying to regulators.

The problem here is that Musk isn't really a humble man, and he's the face of Tesla. That makes everyone a little on edge. Of course, there's a lot of other people in Tesla who, I'm sure, are fantastic engineers and designers. But still, the feeling of uneasiness ensues.

If companies want to earn the trust of the public, they have to anticipate our questions and concerns and address them. It's a high bar in modern America, which is why so many industries (food, pharmaceuticals, automobiles) are plagued with low-trust.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#154

Post by JohnFen »

cowthulhu wrote: post #81
blindriver wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has lost a lot of their lustre this year. Sales plummeting is incontrovertible. Just based on that alone is devastating. But this robotaxi lack of success will not be treated the same anymore.

Totally possible this time is different... but I'm more making the point that if I'd bet against Tesla each time it looked like they would tank, I'd be very broke. At least historically, Tesla stock has shown a consistent ability to defy reality. No pressure, but if you feel comfortable with it... would you share the specific contracts you bought? I'll be interested to see how it works out.

> Totally possible this time is different

Sure, it's possible. However, all signs are that it is exceedingly unlikely.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#156

Post by tzs »

cherryteastain wrote: post #38
Analemma_ wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also got the free month of FSD about four months ago and tried it out on my Model 3, and was astonished at how bad it was in the greater Seattle area: I had to manually intervene on about 4 out of every 5 drives. I do not understand how I continue to see so many comments online raving about how great FSD is; I have to conclude these are coming from either desperate stock-boosters or people who drive exclusively on…

It's definitely behind Waymo level, but the selling point of Tesla FSD is apparently that it works with 'normal' cameras as opposed to the super expensive Waymo kit so they can afford to put it in an upper mid range car. I've seen it action only in my friend's Tesla in SF, and he also had to manually intervene, but to be fair Tesla themselves say you must be ready to take the wheel at any time. I think it may reach f…

> It's definitely behind Waymo level, but the selling point of Tesla FSD is apparently that it works with 'normal' cameras as opposed to the super expensive Waymo kit so they can afford to put it in an upper mid range car.

A potential problem for Tesla is prices are coming down for expensive sensors like LiDAR. We are at the point where you don't have to go camera only to keep a car affordable.

BYD is putting a dozen cameras, 5 mm-wave radars, and 12 ultrasound sensors on many of their cheaper cars. Go up to around Tesla's price and BYD has models with all those sensors and LiDAR.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#157

Post by tzs »

I'm curious. Suppose I took a taxi to some specific address, which is a large building the occupies a whole block. There are two entrances to the building on that street, at opposite ends of the block.

With a human driven taxi I'd be able to tell the driver which entrance I'd like to be dropped off near.

Does Waymo provide a way to do this? Has Tesla said anything about if they will allow such a thing?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#158

Post by Spooky23 »

JohnKemeny wrote: post #151
nickff wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard of at least one case where someone thought that cruise control could operate as an un-supervised 'autopilot' and nearly died; I believe their (almost new) RV went off some sort of cliff.

There's a difference between someone not understanding the functionality of their car, and the CEO openly deceiving the public about the functionality of their car. If this RV manufacturer's CEO said that the cruise control was FSD, yes then one can understand the user's confusion.

Do you mean to say it’s confusing to say “of course silly, the feature is called “Full Self Driving”, but the vehicle does not fully drive itself, your are in control!”

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#159

Post by philips »

FeloniousHam wrote: post #146
philips wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is an absolute dangerous joke. It nearly pulled me into a curb on its first attempt to enter a freeway. Also, I think it keeps getting overlooked that freeways are designed from the ground up as a exclusive use of motorized vehicles. FSD performs OK there. But, taxi services are everywhere in cities around the clock in all sorts of weather. And I can't imagine trusting FSD for that use…

Counterpoint: I had a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is absolutely a wonder and a delight (I now have a Tesla with HW4, and it's a noticeable improvement on my M3). It drives me through traffic on my commute everyday, in all kinds of weather, and is a better driver than me (say) 95% of the time. As I frequently mention in these "sanity response" posts, it's not perfect. Sun in the camera will sometimes cause it to bail. Mayb…

Did you have the FSD they gave away for free for a few weeks last year? Because I felt like I was going crazy with neighbors saying it was great while I couldn't get it to stop doing dangerous stuff. Turns out they had HW4. I think the new stack or whatever is just not ok on hw3.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#160

Post by scoofy »

tim333 wrote: post #145
scoofy wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really is wild that investments are driven by the marginal investor, not the median investor. 99% of us can think that Tesla is trash, but 1% of world investors is an absolute ton of capital.

If you invest in an index fund, 1.9% of your money goes into Tesla.

Investing in a proportional index fund moves the market as a whole, but does not move the individual stocks in relative rank. Aside from short term frictional liquidity issues, it just makes the stocks' relative movements exaggerated.

The valuation of Tesla is still decided by the marginal investor.

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