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The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

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Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#151

Human language is far from perfect as a cognitive tool but still serves us well because it is not foundational. We use it both for communication and some reasoning/planning as a high level layer. I strongly believe that human language is too weak (vague, inconsistent, not expressive enough etc.) to replace interactions with the world as a basis to build strong cognition. We're easily fooled by the results of LLM/LRM…

Human language is more powerful than its surface syntax or semantics: it carries meaning beyond formal correctness. We often communicate effectively even with grammatically broken sentences, using jokes, metaphors, or emotionally charged expressions. This richness makes language a uniquely human cognitive layer, shaped by context, culture, and shared experience. While it's not foundational in the same way as sensorimotor interaction, it is far more than just a high-level communication tool.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#152

> Rather than standard benchmarks (e.g., math problems), we adopt controllable puzzle environments that let us vary complexity systematically Very clever, I must say. Kudos to folks who made this particular choice. > we identify three performance regimes: (1) low complexity tasks where standard models surprisingly outperform LRMs, (2) medium-complexity tasks where additional thinking in LRMs demonstrates advantage, a…

Is (1) that surprising? If I ask someone a simple question but tell them to "think really hard about it", they'll be more likely to treat it as a trick question and look for a non-obvious answer. Overthinking it, basically.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#153
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not too familiar with the latest hype, but "reasoning" has a very straightforward definition in my mind. For example, can the program in question derive new facts from old ones in a logically sound manner. Things like applying modus ponens. (A and A => B) => B. Or, all men are mortal and Socrates is a man, and therefore Socrates is mortal. If the program cannot deduce new facts, then it is not reasoning, at leas…

When people say LLMs can't do X, I like to try it. Q: Complete 3 by generating new knowledge: 1. today is warm 2. cats likes warm temperatures 3. A: Therefore, a cat is likely to be enjoying the weather today. Q: does the operation to create new knowledge you did have a specific name? A: ... Deductive Reasoning Q: does the operation also have a Latin name? A: ... So, to be precise, you used a syllogismus (syllogism)…

I do not know whether the state of the art is able to reason or not. The textbook example you gave is admittedly not very interesting. What you are hearing from people is that parroting is not reasoning, which is true.

I wonder if the state of the art can reason its way through the following:

"Adam can count to 14000. Can Adam count to 13500?"

The response needs to be affirmative for every X1 and X2 such that X2 The response when X2 > X1 is less interesting. But, as a human it might be "Maybe, if Adam has time" or "Likely, since counting up to any number uses the same algorithm" or "I don't know".

Seems ChatGPT can cope with this. Other examples are easy to come up with, too. There must be benchmarks for this.

Input to ChatGPT:

"Adam can lift 1000 pounds of steel. Can Adam lift 1000 pounds of feathers?"

Output from ChatGPT:

"1,000 pounds of feathers would be much easier for Adam to lift compared to 1,000 pounds of steel, because feathers are much lighter and less dense."

So, maybe not there yet...

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#154
post #71
post #45

I think the intuition the authors are trying to capture is that they believe the models are omniscient, but also dim-witted. And the question they are collectively trying to ask is whether this will continue forever. I've never seen this question quantified in a really compelling way, and while interesting, I'm not sure this PDF succeeds, at least not well-enough to silence dissent. I think AI maximalists will contin…

> I think the intuition the authors are trying to capture is that they believe the models are omniscient, but also dim-witted. We keep assigning adjectives to this technology that anthropomorphize the neat tricks we've invented. There's nothing "omniscient" or "dim-witted" about these tools. They have no wit. They do not think or reason. All Large "Reasoning" Models do is generate data that they use as context to gen…

> There's nothing "omniscient" or "dim-witted" about these tools. They have no wit. They do not think or reason.

> All Large "Reasoning" Models do is generate data that they use as context to generate the final answer. I.e. they do real-time tuning based on synthetic data.

I always wonder when people make comments like this if they struggle with analogies. Or if it's a lack of desire to discuss concepts at different levels of abstraction.

Clearly an LLM is not "omniscient". It doesn't require a post to refute that, OP obviously doesn't mean that literally. It's an analogy describing two semi (fairly?) independent axes. One on breadth of knowledge, one on something more similar to intelligence and being able to "reason" from smaller components of knowledge. The opposite of which is dim witted.

So at one extreme you'd have something completely unable to generalize or synthesize new results. Only able to correctly respond if it identically matches prior things it has seen, but has seen and stored a ton. At the other extreme would be something that only knows a very smal set of general facts and concepts but is extremely good at reasoning from first principles on the fly. Both could "score" the same on an evaluation, but have very different projections for future growth.

It's a great analogy and way to think about the problem. And it me multiple paragraphs to write ehat OP expressed in two sentences via a great analogy.

LLMs are a blend of the two skills, apparently leaning more towards the former but not completely.

> What we do have are very good pattern matchers and probabilistic data generators

This an unhelpful description. And object is more than the sum of its parts. And higher levels behaviors emerge. This statement is factually correct and yet the equivalent of describing a computer as nothing more than a collection of gates and wires so shouldn't be discussed at a higher level of abstraction.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#155

Human language is far from perfect as a cognitive tool but still serves us well because it is not foundational. We use it both for communication and some reasoning/planning as a high level layer. I strongly believe that human language is too weak (vague, inconsistent, not expressive enough etc.) to replace interactions with the world as a basis to build strong cognition. We're easily fooled by the results of LLM/LRM…

Sounds like we need ai legalese as that's how we navigate the vagueness of language in the real world. Ofc I imagine they've tried similar things and that it almost takes away the point if u had to prompt that way.

I was not referring to the prompt but to the underlying network that is built on weak cognitive foundations because all of it is coming from language.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember "stochastic parrot" and people saying it's fancy markov chain/dead end. You don't hear them much after roughly agentic coding appeared.

Spicy autocomplete is still spicy autocomplete

I'm not sure if system capable of ie. reasoning over images deserves this label anymore?

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#157

All the environments the test (Tower of Hanoi, Checkers Jumping, River Crossing, Block World) could easily be solved perfectly by any of the LLMs if the authors had allowed it to write code. I don't really see how this is different from "LLMs can't multiply 20 digit numbers"--which btw, most humans can't either. I tried it once (using pen and paper) and consistently made errors somewhere.

> but humans cant do it either This argument is tired as it keeps getting repeated for any flaws seen in LLMs. And the other tired argument is: wait ! this is a sigmoid curve, and we have not seen the inflection point yet. If someone have me a penny for every comment saying these, I'd be rich by now. Humans invented machines because they could not do certain things. All the way from simple machines in physics (Archim…

> Humans invented machines because they could not do certain things.

If your disappointment is that the LLM didn't invent a computer to solve the problem, maybe you need to give it access to physical tools, robots, labs etc.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#158
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When people say LLMs can't do X, I like to try it. Q: Complete 3 by generating new knowledge: 1. today is warm 2. cats likes warm temperatures 3. A: Therefore, a cat is likely to be enjoying the weather today. Q: does the operation to create new knowledge you did have a specific name? A: ... Deductive Reasoning Q: does the operation also have a Latin name? A: ... So, to be precise, you used a syllogismus (syllogism)…

I do not know whether the state of the art is able to reason or not. The textbook example you gave is admittedly not very interesting. What you are hearing from people is that parroting is not reasoning, which is true. I wonder if the state of the art can reason its way through the following: "Adam can count to 14000. Can Adam count to 13500?" The response needs to be affirmative for every X1 and X2 such that X2 The…

> "Adam can lift 1000 pounds of steel. Can Adam lift 1000 pounds of feathers?"

Worked for me:

https://chatgpt.com/share/6844813a-6e4c-8006-b560-c0be223eeb...

gemma3-27b, a small model, had an interesting take:

> This is a classic trick question!

> While Adam can lift 1000 pounds, no, he likely cannot lift 1000 pounds of feathers.

> Volume: Feathers take up a huge amount of space for their weight. 1000 pounds of feathers would be an enormous volume – likely far too large for Adam to even get under, let alone lift. He'd be trying to lift a massive, bulky cloud.

> Practicality: Even if he could somehow get it under a barbell, the feathers would shift and compress, making a secure grip impossible.

> The question plays on our understanding of weight versus volume. It's designed to make you focus on the "1000 pounds" and forget about the practicalities of lifting something so voluminous.

Tried the counting question on the smallest model, gemma-3n-34b, it can run on a smartphone:

> Yes, if Adam can count to 14000, he can definitely count to 13500. Counting to a smaller number is a basic arithmetic operation. 13500 is less than 14000.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#159
The difference between imitation and reasoning can be made more clear if we switch from language to numbers:

  1 3 7 15 31 63 ...
How do you continue this sequence? What's the 1000000th number in this sequence? Imitation continues the likeness of what it sees and quickly gets off track. Imitation can't go abstract and tell the 1000000th element without writing down a million numbers leading to the answer. Reasoning finds the rule behind the set of examples and uses this rule to predict the next numbers, so it never gets off track.

The rule generating the sequence can be a sophisticated recurrent formula, e.g. a(k) = 2a(k-1) - sqrt(a(k-3)). Imitation can't solve this problem beyond trivial examples, but an AI can do what a scientist would do: come up with hypotheses, verify them against the examples and eventually find a formula that's reasonably accurate. The role of an LLM here is to suggest possible formulas.

The same sequence of examples can be generated by many formulas that differ in complexity and accuracy. This provokes the idea of a simple competition between AIs: the one that creates the simplest formula that's 99.5% accurate - wins. The formula really means a small program, once we get beyond trivial recurrent rules.

The ability to find simple and accurate models of reality is the essense of intelligence.

Re: The Illusion of Thinking: Strengths and limitations of reasoning models [pdf]

#160
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine if you asked the LLM why the wolf can't be close to the goat it would give a reasonable answer. I realise it does it by using permutation of tokens but I think you have to judge intelligence by the results rather than the mechanism otherwise you could argue humans can't be intelligent because they are just a bunch of neurons that find patterns.

> you have to judge intelligence by the results rather than the mechanism This would be the exact opposite conclusion of the Chinese room: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room I think you'd need to offer a stronger counter argument than the one you presented here.

Actually I think the Chinese room fits my idea. It's a silly thought experiment that would never work in practice. If you tried to make one you would judge it unintelligent because it wouldn't work. Or at least in the way Searle implied - he basically proposed a look up table.
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