Hopefully more!
AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
151–160 of 394 posts
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
why would I do that kind of research if it can identify the problem I am trying to solve, and spit out the exact solution. also, it was a rough implementation adapted to my exact tech stack
Because as far as you know, the "rough implementation" only works in the happy path and there are really bad edge cases that you won't catch until they bite you, and then you won't even know where to look. An open source project wouldn't have those issues (someone at least understands all the code, and most edge cases have likely been ironed out) plus then you get maintenance updates for free.
ive got ten years at faang in distributed systems, I know a good solution when i see one. and o3 is bang on
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
why would I do that kind of research if it can identify the problem I am trying to solve, and spit out the exact solution. also, it was a rough implementation adapted to my exact tech stack
I was pointing out that if you spent 2 weeks trying to find the solution but AI solved it within a day (you don’t specify how long the final solution by AI took), it sounds like those two weeks were not spent very well. I would be interested in knowing what in those two weeks you couldn’t figure out, but AI could.
it was two weeks tossing around ideas in my head
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#154And in 30 years it will be another 30 years away. LLMs are so incredibly useful and powerful but they will NEVER be AGI. I actually wonder if the success of (and subsequent obsession with) LLMs is putting true AGI further out of reach. All that these AI companies see are the $$$. When the biggest "AI Research Labs" like OpenAI shifted to product-izing their LLM offerings I think the writing was on the wall that they…
Got it. So this is now a competition between...
1. Fusion power plants 2. AGI 3. Quantum computers 4. Commercially viable cultured meat
May the best "imminent" fantasy tech win!
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
How many people do you know who are capable of doing something truly novel? Definitely not me, I'm just an average phd doing average research.
I'm a lowly high school diploma holder. I thought the point of getting a PhD meant you had done something novel (your thesis). Is that wrong?
Just because it's something that no one has done yet, doesn't mean that it's not the obvious-to-everyone next step in a long, slow march.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
What was the point of this comment? It's confrontational and doesn't add anything to the conversation. If you disagree, you could have just said that, or not commented at all.
The people who go around saying "LLMs aren't intelligent" while refusing to define exactly what they mean by intelligence (and hence not making a meaningful/testable claim) add nothing to the conversation.
OK, but the people who go around saying "LLMs are intelligent" are in the same boat...
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because as far as you know, the "rough implementation" only works in the happy path and there are really bad edge cases that you won't catch until they bite you, and then you won't even know where to look. An open source project wouldn't have those issues (someone at least understands all the code, and most edge cases have likely been ironed out) plus then you get maintenance updates for free.
ive got ten years at faang in distributed systems, I know a good solution when i see one. and o3 is bang on
If you thought about it for two weeks beforehand and came up with nothing, I have trouble lending much credence to that.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you could stick your own copyright notice on the result, for one thing.
What's the point holding copyright on a new technical solution, to a problem that can be solved by anyone asking an existing AI, trained on last year's internet, independently of your new copyright?
All sorts of stuff containing no original ideas is copyrighted. It legally belongs to someone and they can license it to others, etc.
E.g. pop songs with no original chord progressions or melodies, and hackneyed lyrics are still copyrighted.
Plagiarized and uncopyrightable code is radioactive; it can't be pulled into FOSS or commercial codebases alike.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#159Is AGI even important? I believe the next 10 to 15 years will be Assisted Intelligence. There are things that current LLM are so poor I dont believe a 100x increase in pref / watt is going to make much difference. But it is going to be good enough there wont be an AI Winter. Since current AI has already reached escape velocity and actually increase productivity in many areas. The most intriguing part is if Humanoid f…
I think having a real life JARVIS would be super cool and useful, especially if it's plugged into various things and can take action. Yes, also potentially dangerous, but I want to feel like Ironman.
Re: AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
People will keep improving LLMs, and by the time they are AGI (less than 30 years), you will say, "Well, these are no longer LLMs."
What was the point of this comment? It's confrontational and doesn't add anything to the conversation. If you disagree, you could have just said that, or not commented at all.
There's been a complaint for several decades that "AI can never succeed" - because when, say, expert systems are developed from AI research, and they become capable of doing useful things, then the nay-sayer say "That's not AI, that's just expert systems".
This is somewhat defensible, because what the non-AI-researcher means by AI - which may be AGI - is something more than expert systems by themselves can deliver. It is possible that "real AI" will be the combination of multiple approaches, but so far all the reductionist approaches (that expert systems, say, are all that it takes to be an AI) have proven to be inadequate compared to what the expectations are.
The GP may have been riffing off of this "that's not AI" issue that goes way back.