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“Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

skyatnightmagazine.com

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Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#151
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sun has about 5B years more to go before it turns into a red giant, not 0.5B years...

Earth may become uninhabitable in 1By due to increasing brightness of the sun. In 3-4B years it will be too hot for liquid water on the surface.

Earth is on course to become uninhabitable for human civilisation its current form within a century, with an associated mass extinction.

Even if all industrial activity stopped tomorrow there's now enough CO2 in the system to guarantee a succession of uncomfortable and expensive droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires for thousands of years.

If it doesn't they will become more and more extreme very quickly.

If ocean acidification and warming destroy the foodchain in the seas, collapse on land will happen very quickly.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is quite plausible that life is abundant, but sentience is not. If we take Earth, it formed 4.5 billions years ago, conditions became suitable to support life like 4B years ago and first known signs of life are dated 3.7B years ago. Now, in just .5B years Earth would likely become uninhabitable due to Sun becoming a red giant. In other words, on Earth life spent 90% of its total available time before sentience eme…

This is now much less plausible. Intelligence, like eyesight, is believed to be a result of convergent evolution[0]. [0] https://www.quantamagazine.org/intelligence-evolved-at-least...

Being intelligent doesn't necessarily lead to runaway technological development. Dolphins are smart but they're never going to invent radios to broadcast their existence to other star systems. They're stuck in the water and don't have thumbs. And even orangutans, who have thumbs and live on land, don't seem tracked for technology even if humans weren't around; their ecological niche is small even if we assumed humans weren't wrecking their environment, and they seem comfortable and steady in it.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#154
post #75

This is happening 124 light years away from earth. That means if we develop a way to make a space ship accelerate at 1g for a long period of time, you could go there in just 10 relativistic years. Unfortunately, whilst science allows such a rocket, our engineering skills are far from being able to build one.

Calling it simply an engineering issue is not properly conveying the ridiculousness of such a journey. For a small space ship of 1000 tons, this would take ten thousand times the current yearly energy consumption of mankind. So we'd need to figure out how to generate the energy and then store it on a space ship before even thinking about the engineering. And that's ignoring the mass of the fuel. The classical rocket…

Seriously, most if not all of humanity's issue is our current energy wall. I truly wish we can invest more in energy as compared to AI because I truly believe that most AI agents are roughly the same and now are benchmark maxxing and even google's gemini is really really cool. Maybe now training it even further has less reward for the cost?

I truly wish energy could be a solved issue. I think clean energy can be great of two types, solar and nuclear, though nuclear can require a lot of expertise to build it once and operation costs, (I am not talking about the risk of nuclear reactor exploding since its just a fraction of current risks)

I personally prefer solar as its way more flexible though I am okay with nuclear as well

Mainly the issue in solar is of battery, if I understand it correctly. So We just need to really focus as a civilization to the humble battery.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#155
post #18

Firstly that is completely badass science. The idea that you can use observations to detect the chemical composition of an exoplanet millions of kilometres away is an absolute triumph of the work of thousands of people over hundreds of years. Really amazing and deeply humbling to me. Secondly, my prior was always that life existed outside of earth. It just seems so unlikely that we are somehow that special. If life d…

If life is very common in the universe, then that is probably bad news for us. It means that civilizations should exist that are millions of years more technologically advanced than us; and should be leaving telltale signatures across the sky that we'd likely have detected by now. And the absence of those signs would be relatively strong evidence that life, while common, isn't long-lived. Suggesting that our demise t…

> millions of years more technologically advanced than us

> should be leaving telltale signatures across the sky that we'd likely have detected by now

I'm not sure the second follows from the first. What if they're hiding?

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#156
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is quite plausible that life is abundant, but sentience is not. If we take Earth, it formed 4.5 billions years ago, conditions became suitable to support life like 4B years ago and first known signs of life are dated 3.7B years ago. Now, in just .5B years Earth would likely become uninhabitable due to Sun becoming a red giant. In other words, on Earth life spent 90% of its total available time before sentience eme…

why isnt a crocodile sentient?

Who says they aren't? Of all the reptiles, they seem among the smartest.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#158
This is very exciting. It's certainly approaching the best evidence we could possibly hope for from an exoplanet given current technology.

Of course, the weak link here is the assumption that these bio-markers can't be produced abiotically, which is a pretty big assumption. Our understanding of planetary science is still in its infancy. This is (thought to be) a hycean planet, a type of planet unknown to us until very recently(post-JWST, I believe?). And given that the solar system has no hycean planets, it's a class of planets which is fundamentally poorly studied, with pretty limited access to data. We can make models, and we can get some spectral data on the contents of their gaseous atmospheres. But we have no way of looking at their surface oceans. Thinking about what kind of chemistry might be going on there is mostly just an act of speculative modelling.

So the interesting question is, without new sources of data, can we determine whether these bio-markers are biological in origin? Not really. Not without a much better understanding of planetary science in general and hycean worlds in particular(of course, that's what this research is trying to do, and making progress at). As well as a deeper understanding of abiogenesis. I could imagine a working understanding of abiogenesis at least being able to eliminate some candidate planets, but even that assumes only one type of abiogenesis is possible, which is more or less unfounded. That is, unless the understanding includes some deep information theoretic/evolutionary perspective on abiogenesis which would probably have to include a completely unambiguous information theoretic and physical definition of what life even is. It is conceivable that such an understanding might provide very strong restrictions on what kinds of chemical systems are capable of abiogenesis, and that those restrictions could then be used to eliminate certain planets or even entire star systems from contention. And if these hycean worlds were eliminated that way, we'd know there must be some abiotic source of these "biomarkers", and knowing that, we would likely be able to figure out what it is. But ok, that's a lot of assumptions.

Maybe we get lucky, and some chemists stumble on a non-biotic chemical system that can produce these chmicals in concentrations that can be detected by JWST at a distance of hundreds of light years. Or, conversely, maybe chemists somehow manage to prove conclusively that biotic origin is the only possible source. I'm not a chemist or a microbiologist, so I have no idea what that would look like. It's probably well beyond our current understanding.

I guess what I'm rantingly saying is, while this result changes my credence that there's life on this planet about as much as is possible with current science and technology, it still barely changes it at all. Before it was maybe 0.5 + ε(habitable zone, liquid water), and it is now 0.5 + 2ε.

I guess something which could move the needle much more significantly, is if we found a large number(say 10) of chemically unrelated potential bio-markers in the atmosphere of a planet very similar to earth, in a very similar star system. Then, the assumption of the impossibility of abiotic sources would be much more plausible. I believe doing this type of research for earth-sized exoplanets with JWST is still quite borderline(please correct me if I'm wrong).

Having said all that, this result is still extremely exciting. For the first time, the field of exobiology has any contact with observational data from outside our solar system at all(besides mere astronomical data), and things will only improve from here. Future telescopes will be better at this type of observation, and our understanding of planetary science is evolving at an accelerating pace. I'm very excited to see where this research goes in the future.

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#159
124 light years seems quite close, it seems to be some sort phytoplankton for now, what can we send there quickly to eradicate them before they become a problem. How much mass of galactic "roundup" should we send ? Do we have the technology yet for planet-scale sanitizing ? Can we pulse some high energy particles at roughly the speed of light and aim it at them ? Do we know if they have some magnetic field protection like earth does ?

Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are capable of rapidly changing chemical composition of atmosphere, which may be noticeable even at our technological level.

Plenty of lifeforms have changed the composition of the atmosphere. At faster rates than we are changing it now.

The only similar example I can think of is when, roughly 2400 million years ago (during the Paleoproterozoic iirc), the ancestors of cyanobacteria poisoned their atmosphere by overproducing oxygen which resulted in an extinction event. But that whole process still took somewhere in the order of millions of years to complete I believe.
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