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American Disruption

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Re: American Disruption

#151

Post by mullingitover »

flakiness wrote: post #131
jacobgkau wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the 10 year bond price started going up as stocks were trading down, Correct me if I'm wrong, but the abnormal thing happening was that treasury yields were going up, which meant that prices were going down (due to lack of buyers, as you said), right?

+1 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/09/dramatic-se... > The yield – or interest rate – on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 4.516% on Wednesday before slipping back to 4.451%, up 0.14 percentage points on the day.

Yes, that's what I meant.

Re: American Disruption

#152

Post by SoftTalker »

renewiltord wrote: post #80
acdha wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live, Uber is recognized as the high prices option. Once VCs stopped subsidizing rides prices went up and availability went down - it was a running joke for years that at DCA you’d see people waiting in line for 20 minutes to spend $20 more than hopping in a waiting cab.

That makes sense for me. I would easily pay $20 more to take an Uber over a cab in SF. The prices are the other way around which is convenient for me. The last time I took a cab from the airport the guy asked me which cross streets and how to get there. That's not my Uber experience. I don't want to be telling this guy how to do his job. I want personal transportation and we can chat about something else if he likes…

For a lot of people $20 is an amount that they will think about spending.

Ridiculous to think that a cab driver in 2025 is not using GPS. I don't believe that.

Re: American Disruption

#153

Post by fragmede »

acdha wrote: post #147
ta1243 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Been burnt too often by american taxis that won't take cards or won't give receipts or have adverts on screens as you're travelling.

That’s not a problem here (they have an app, too) but it’s definitely valid for Uber to compete on better service. I am skeptical that they will be able to get the kind of returns which their investors want that way, however.

they already IPOed so the original investors made out with a ton of money. if you think there's still a version where Uber evaporates overnight, I have some puts to sell you.

Re: American Disruption

#154

Post by fragmede »

renewiltord wrote: post #53
samtp wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in Seattle, it's actually about 50% cheaper to get a taxi from SeaTac to the city than to take a Lyft or Uber.

Ah then it’s regional. In SF it’s typically 30% more expensive in a taxi from the airport to 4th and king.

it's like $40 to take a car vs like $15 on Bart into the city.

Re: American Disruption

#155

Post by fragmede »

notahacker wrote: post #126
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It reminds me a lot of Brexit. Politicians in the south of the country were warning that the financial sector (predominantly in London) would loose 100,000 jobs and people in the north were saying "oh, that sounds pretty good". A few years later when that didn't happen to that extent I remember an interview with someone from a fishing port which lost a lot of business that previously went to Europe. They were complai…

Tbf the fishing ports were some of the most rational Brexit voters. They were aware that EU fisheries policy quotas seriously impaired their ability to catch fish and believed that leaving the EU meant leaving the quotas behind. Unfortunately for them, they happened to be completely wrong about this (arguably not unpredictably: the UK MMO was more zealous than most European countries about enforcing catch restriction…

is it rational that they didn't do their homework to find out that the quota wasnt going to be removed once they'd left the EU?

Re: American Disruption

#156

Post by jdlshore »

nchmy wrote: post #113
mullingitover wrote: post #100

Surprised there isn't mention that a big part of the tariff strategy is to throw the equity markets into chaos in an effort to drive down the price of the 10-year bond. There was a panic last night because the 10 year bond price started going up as stocks were trading down, which is not supposed to happen. It would be truly disruptive if the whole game gets blown up by a lack of buyers for US debt.

This doesnt make sense. When money moves out of stocks, it has to go somewhere. Typically, it moves to less-risky assets, like bonds. That makes their prices go up, and yields down. Likewise, why would the tariff strategy be to drive down bond prices? Lower prices means receiving less for their issuance/paying more interest... Youve got it all backwards friend

Flight to cash.

Re: American Disruption

#157

Post by Terr_ »

mullingitover wrote: post #148
ta1243 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Instead, economic trust in the US--built up over decades--is being actively firebombed into the dirt by the new Republican regime. I think that's an important thing to reiterate. This isn't Trump. This isn't MAGA. This is the entire Republican Party apparatus that is allowing this to continue. The Republicans of the Nixon, Regan, Bush eras are long gone.

> This is the entire Republican Party 1000%. The malfeasance from the executive branch could be curtailed almost immediately if there were responsible GOP reps in Congress. They're not powerless passengers on this train, they're actively shoveling coal into the steam engine.

For a concrete example, the law Trump is abusing--where some smuggled fentanyl constitutes National Emergency that lets him invent a tax on Americans--states that any motion in the House to terminate the "emergency" must be given a vote within 15 days or less.

But last month, the Republican majority in the House voted (party-line) to declare that calendar-days for the rest of the year just... don't actually count as time passing, for no particular reason.

That's active complicity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/house-republicans-block-con...

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolutio...

Re: American Disruption

#158

Post by 9rx »

CharlieDigital wrote: post #93
clodushid wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The primary architect of trumps tariff strategy in his first and second term is Peter Navarro. If you want to understand the tariffs today, just go read one of his many books. His goals are pretty simple: reindustriaize America No more free trade China is evil and the worlds enemy It should be no surprise to anyone observing trump since he took office that the end goal was always to decouple from China.

> It should be no surprise to anyone observing trump since he took office that the end goal was always to decouple from China Then why are we also slapping tariffs on Taiwan, Canada, Japan, Mexico, EU, RoW?

If we assume what is said is valid (a huge assumption, I know) and ignore the contradictions: They claim that China is able to pass into the US through Canada, Mexico, etc. and that the tariffs there are to put pressure on those governments to also put the squeeze on China in kind.

Re: American Disruption

#159

Post by iteratethis »

To me (European), there is no strategy behind these tariffs other than Trump's thirst for a dominant display. Just to show that he can, that he has the cards.

He introduces a shocking measure and then wants to humiliate the affected by letting them beg for relief. Submission. In a speech yesterday he literally said that "countries are coming to kiss his ass" and he clearly took great joy in this validation of power.

What he forgets, and so does this article, is that due to the above tactics this isn't a USA vs China situation. It has become a USA vs everybody else situation.

And surely "everybody else" is working on alternatives.

Re: American Disruption

#160

Post by fragmede »

inerte wrote: post #47
mjevans wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're more likely to 'on shore' with 3D printer like automated fabricators (think next baby step between CnC machines and Replicators). As far as any mention of jobs? Those are long gone and never coming back. Trade still makes sense for raw inputs and any outputs though.

And since when the US has a “job availability” problem? Unemployment is low. We have a jobs quality problem. Good pay, good hours, benefits. It doesn’t matter if it’s manufacturing or services. Somehow some people think their parents had it easier working for a factory, but a lot of blood and sweat went to get that. We can shed blood and sweat to get better barista jobs too. It’s not about where jobs are performed.

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTjJgfspg/ shows it all too well.

Except that people liked those jobs because they were doable for people who aren't bright enough to write code. If you're not the brightest tool in the toolbox, and not the most professional, and have a criminal record, you still need a job, and the trades are open for business. Amazon warehouses skill level, without the dystopia.

I'm sure I'll do fine, it's my friends who have been underemployed for decades that aren't as bright who don't have a career to speak of that feel helpless and disempowered. Some of them voted for him. I can't say I don't see where they're coming from.

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