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Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

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Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#151

Post by franktankbank »

dachworker wrote: post #122
weatherlite wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do their economies look healthy? It's all relative. Relative to what? I think its healthier than it would have been had there been no manufacturing at all. > Are those manufacturing jobs attractive? Not all but some are for sure. I'm sure there are enough people working for Volkswagen, BMW or Bosch that earn well and prefer working for them than doing something else. > Are the Germans and the Japanese richer? Again…

OK, let's put it this way. You would struggle to buy a house if you worked at VW assembling cars. You would be able to rent an apartment and have a relatively good if modest existence. Nothing close to what Americans are able to afford. But if you wanted to create blue collar jobs and if the government was going to step in and contort the economy with heavy handed measures, anyway, then just setup a public works prog…

What fucking Americans are you talking about? Sure we got the most billionaires in the world but how many millennials and younger cohorts can't and won't ever afford homes?

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#152

Post by cantrecallmypwd »

kryptiskt wrote: post #71

I'd have expected better from Warren Buffett. It's not a zero-sum game, the developed countries running chronic trade surpluses like Germany and Sweden (my home country) are fooling themselves, because the only way they can do that is by putting a brake on domestic consumption by keeping wages low. Everybody in the EU would be better off if those countries actually let their consumers spend the money that they're hoa…

This. The problem with looking at trade deficits is that they are comparative trade phallus envy that somehow "demand" regulatory "action" when others don't buy enough of our stuff. How dare them! These deeply-unpopular actions alienating allies certainly won't motivate them to purchase more but than can and will convince them to purchase a lot less. Losing customers abroad who don't want American stuff and losing customers at home who can't buy stuff from elsewhere or stuff from home since prices shot up and they were laid off. Nothing good will come of any of this because the leader is, no doubt, using breaking things for personal gain and to weasel their way into staying in power indefinitely by creating protests and/or war to justify it.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#153

Post by TaurenHunter »

kymki wrote: post #66

As a European this whole debate i sickening. Trade deficit is a blunt and ineffective way to model international trade on this level, but it is easy to point at and say "look at this large bad number!" which is exactly what is going on. People are primed to interact with that through social media, etc. The American trend currently is that any trade deficit is bad. It simply isnt. It is idiotic to state so. The whole…

Interesting! Aren't Europeans known for their sectors of the economy that are heavily protected by tariffs?

Common Agricultural Policy?

Tariff rate for cars of 10% (compared to US' 2.5%)

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#154

Post by dachworker »

franktankbank wrote: post #151
dachworker wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, let's put it this way. You would struggle to buy a house if you worked at VW assembling cars. You would be able to rent an apartment and have a relatively good if modest existence. Nothing close to what Americans are able to afford. But if you wanted to create blue collar jobs and if the government was going to step in and contort the economy with heavy handed measures, anyway, then just setup a public works prog…

What fucking Americans are you talking about? Sure we got the most billionaires in the world but how many millennials and younger cohorts can't and won't ever afford homes?

You are free to come to Germany. Pretty sure you can get a VISA to do an Ausbildung at the end of which you will be working in some factory or another. Getting a German VISA is much easier than getting an American VISA and Germany is actively advertising abroad to attract workers. That should tell you something, but do come and experience it with your own eyes.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#155

Post by TaurenHunter »

tzs wrote: post #126

If a country decides that it is important to not be a net importer the method to achieve that proposed by Buffett in the article is infinitely better than the way Trump is going about it. Essentially what Buffett suggests in the article is a cap and trade system on imports. To import $X worth of goods the importer must have $X worth of ICs (import certificates), which consumes those ICs. ICs are created when exporter…

> what Buffett suggests in the article is a cap and trade system on imports.

A H1B visa but for goods instead of people...

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#156

Post by TaurenHunter »

u_sama wrote: post #38

OP, did you also read Gray Mirror this morning. Curtis Yarvin went onto defend the IC idea this morning as a way to defend nascent industries (new industries). Interesting article, also presented the ideas of mercantilism of Friedrich List (originator of the Zollverein idea).

Thank you for that! I didn't know about Yarvin nor List. I will try to find out more.

https://graymirror.substack.com/p/implementing-market-balanc...

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#157

Post by horsawlarway »

RGamma wrote: post #110
gargan wrote: post #46

Business people don't necessarily make the best economists or politicians, that's the main lesson from the last few years to me.

My main lesson is that in (esp. macro) economics nobody knows what's really going on. Too many, too diverse things happening at breakneck speed.

This is roughly where I've settled as well.

Economics likes to present the facade of a hard science with equations and rules - but macro economics simply doesn't work the same way as physics, and pretending that your equations are going to be a crystal ball has so far proved mostly bullshit.

Too many things depend on decisions made by actors acting under very complex and dynamic social constraints, rather than predictable rules.

The end result is that several decades after something happens - we're ok at examining the social/political influence of the time on macro economics, but that insight doesn't do much for us now because circumstances are changing at a pace that has rendered any intuition utterly obsolete.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#158

Post by nindalf »

zabzonk wrote: post #107
nindalf wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To a forum run by an American company, moderated by Americans.

I don't think that dang (or the new guy) is going to over-moderate this stuff.

Not at all. I meant it more as response to the sentiment that someone in the UK doesn’t need American goods and services, while posting on HN.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#159

Post by thehappypm »

randyrand wrote: post #85
refurb wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not true. Apple has internal transfer pricing which is dictated by accounting regulations and tax law. Companies try and set transfer prices to minimize local taxes, but need to follow regulations. A phone made in China is “purchased” by say Apple Canada for some fraction the price it sells for - regulation usually require the Value to reflect the cost of inputs. So Apple Canada might purchase a phone from App…

> yet the entire value of an iPhone counts only as a Chinese export. > That’s not true. You're right. It's not always the "entire" value paid by the consumer.

This is actually something that I think a lot about with tariffs. The price that you pay at the corner store for an item, even an imported item, is nowhere near the price that an importer pays at the border.

Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]

#160

Post by exe34 »

mk89 wrote: post #142
exe34 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was thinking, the UK and EU should set extra taxes on US tech companies to offset the tariffs. don't even need to fix the amount - just tie it to whatever the tariffs are.

Sure, let's all lose our jobs, who needs them anyways...! But then finally we proved Trump and all those evil Americans a point! *evil laughter... We in EU could do that, if we dared investing in tech.

We all work for US tech companies, do we?
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