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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

nabraj.com

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#151
post #6

I read something about Go - that very unusual (maybe even considered bad) playing could beat the super-AIs. They are so tuned to opponents in a "typical" style, that they don't know how to beat a player outside this distribution. Maybe an NBA team will come up with something like that.

I'd be interested in seeing a link to this. Decades ago, playing defensive "computer chess" used to be a relatively optimal strategy against Chess AIs. However, I believe Kasparov famously tried to employ this tactic against Deep Blue but by that time it wasn't particularly viable.

I'm not sure if this is the study I was remembering, but here is one link I found: https://far.ai/post/2023-07-superhuman-go-ais/

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most teams can find these archetypes and build rosters that get you to the playoffs Not really, it's still 16/30 (I don't like playoff formats btw, so American).

My country of Smugistan solved playoff problem years ago. Very simple: every Smugball team makes playoffs. If Americans and Europeans weren't so far behind Smugistanian education system, they would have figured it out too.

>My country of Smugistan solved playoff problem years ago. Very simple: every Smugball team makes playoffs.

Not that I disagree with the intent/target of your sarcasm, but there are US leagues where every team makes the playoffs. The Pac-12 did this with its conference tournament for most of its history, for example. One can argue that such is the logical conclusion of separately rewarding the winner of the regular season and tournament.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#153
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most sports pretty much have a playoff system to a greater or lesser degree. That said, basketball has pretty much always been one of the major US sports that can rely on a fairly small number of really good players and the rest don't matter nearly as much. Stars (pitchers, QBs, receivers, etc.) matter elsewhere but probably not individually as much as they do in basketball.

the most popular sport on the planet - soccer - doesn't have playoffs anywhere except USA

There are multiple independently organized tournaments, e.g. FA Cup, Coppa Italia, Champions League, Europa League, World Cup, etc.

But it’s true that the lack of a tournament which determines the league champion makes regular season games much more meaningful and exciting!

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#154
Wish OP had presented some data beyond "people are shooting more threes". From the bit of basketball youtube I've watched, there seems to be a bevy of data. I roll my eyes a bit at announcements like "he's the first person ever to have X points, Y assists and Z steals in 3 quarters" but they are pulling that data from somewhere.

Would be really interesting to read about team records when they field a bunch of specialized players vs generalized players (due to injuries or foul trouble). That would be far more convincing.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

couple of feet is not enough. the line needs to move far enough such that vast majority of the players (more than 95%) shoot less than 30% from there. so probably 8 to 10 feet back. absolutely should happen but they will likely do something awesome like shortening quarters to 10 minutes

Just fill the ball with water.

What about tying 2 sets of players (one pair on each team) feet together, potato sack relay style?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#156

I think this article doesn’t do the sport justice. Modern basketball is amazing and light years ahead of where it was even ten years ago. Watch “explain one play” on YouTube and you’ll begin to understand how much thought goes into even 5 seconds of normal basketball. The craziest part is how teams now days know how to punish a mistake, and virtually every point comes from very slight mistakes happening. Being too sl…

Wow, I hadn't watched basketball in ages, so I followed your recommendation and watched a random "Explain one Play" video [0]. The narration is excellent, and if all games contain amazing stuff like this one, I may just start watching NBA in the future (or at least follow that YT channel).

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwp-NAPFqAo

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#157
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the most popular sport on the planet - soccer - doesn't have playoffs anywhere except USA

I mean there's the World Cup though that's a bit different. The US (or US + Canada) is big enough that having large leagues of top-level teams makes some sense to have playoffs.

The world cup is not a league, it's a tournament.

My point is towards the regular season + playoffs which is imho lame.

Imagine a formula 1 season where you watch 20 races and then the best teams play it out in the last 4. That's a giant nonsense in most sports but somehow it spread even to European basket and volley in the 80s, I guess under the American influx.

I just don't like it.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, the situation is not as dire as in baseball or arguably even soccer, there's more chaos and room for innovation. But still data-lization is taking the fun out of basketball, that's for sure.

wow really? Did soccer also go through a statistical revolution? I don't watch soccer at all and am pretty surprised to hear this. Did all the teams converge on a winning solution?

Pretty much all teams play more or less the same style of building up with the goalkeeper because data shows that even though you suffer more goals it's offset by scoring more.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#159
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean, a free throw is a chance shot that when missed awards the defense? Seems like that would have a huge impact on end of game strategy. It would change the “in the paint” strategy—maybe defense would foul earlier to avoid the 2+1? Hoping instead to split the 2, 1-1 with a miss. Of course, the centers and forwards, who typically aren’t great free throw shooters, are gonna get the ball less. Where does the play…

To clarify, award the offense a point when fouled shooting a 2-point shot and two points if shooting a 3. There’s still a free-throw left to earn the old fashioned way. Mostly the thinking is this encourages post-play since bigs are usually worse free-throw shooters. Also, it should shorten game length which is another recent audience concern.

Ah! That would speed up the game a bit, for sure.

I like my idea a bit better. Fouls become way more strategic. Maybe you do away with the bonus, though. A foul on the floor just changes possession. A foul during shot becomes almost a toss up. You still have foul limits on players, and maybe you decrease the foul out limit to 4 just for fun. :)

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#160
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean there's the World Cup though that's a bit different. The US (or US + Canada) is big enough that having large leagues of top-level teams makes some sense to have playoffs.

The world cup is not a league, it's a tournament. My point is towards the regular season + playoffs which is imho lame. Imagine a formula 1 season where you watch 20 races and then the best teams play it out in the last 4. That's a giant nonsense in most sports but somehow it spread even to European basket and volley in the 80s, I guess under the American influx. I just don't like it.

That's your choice of course. I suspect that a lot of casual fans (raises hand) may largely ignore the regular (long) season but get more engaged in the payoffs, especially if they have a team they care about involved which has obvious financial implications for the teams involved.
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