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Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

paulgraham.com

151–160 of 237 posts

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#151
post #14

> Their [n.b Apple's] victory is so complete that I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows. Nearly all the people we fund at Y Combinator use Apple laptops So nearly all of the (relatively) very few people that are funded by YC have Apple and that's proof of Apple's complete victory over a dead MS. In a year when MS was still on an upward trend, growing by 20% market cap to become double that o…

The first time this essay made the rounds, a bunch of people misunderstood his point the same way you're doing: https://www.paulgraham.com/cliffsnotes.html He was talking about cultural dominance among people developing new tech, not revenue. There was a time when being a programmer essentially meant writing C++ on Windows. I still remember getting a Mac as late as ~2013 and having my normie (non-engineer) friends ch…

> a bunch of people misunderstood his point the same way you're doing

Nobody implied he meant "dead dead" so that's a straw man, just that he completely missed the mark with his observation. Everything else is a backsplanation. PG even acknowledges he may look like a fool in retrospective.

> He was talking about cultural dominance among people developing new tech [...] Everyone's using Macs

So... a cultural thing you say, not connected to performance? Correlation not causation. The investor expects to see a Mac because that's part of the impression and everyone conformed. People showed up with a Mac to ask for money much like people show up in a suit to ask for a job. The interviewer expects the suit. It has no impact on the job performance or quality. It's just the "cultural" expectation. Wall Street people aren't more profitable due to the suits, and casual attire isn't dead.

> Was it really necessary to turn this into a talking point about rich people and their sins?

Was it really necessary to come to his defense? Was PG's opinion of MS really necessary? Would you have let it slide if I was praising instead?

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#152

More proof Hackernews is completely isolated from game development.

It’s completely isolated from the real world.

"Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community." It's reliably a marker of bad comments and worse threads.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#153
post #81
post #66

It's interesting to read comments about this today, written through the lens of the present. I suspect many commenters were too young to really understand the level of dominance Microsoft had in the market circa from 1995-2005. Just look at this chart: https://www.extremetech.com/computing/143277-microsofts-shar... In 2004, outside of education and desktop publishing it was extremely rare to see an Apple computer at…

“That today Microsoft is a giant company is irrelevant...” I am not too young to remember the old Microsoft. To say that Microsoft is “irrelevant” is so myopic. Despite Tesla, GM is still relevant. Despite AWS, DB2 mainframes are still relevant. Heck, I have to work with EBCDIC data, a format designed to not produce holes in punchcards that are too close together . Even when we eventually move to a modern db, decades…

> To say that Microsoft is “irrelevant” is so myopic. Despite Tesla, GM is still relevant. Despite AWS, DB2 mainframes are still relevant. Heck, I have to work with EBCDIC data, a format designed to not produce holes in punchcards that are too close together.

There's more free energy in growing things.

Leave shrinking things to private equity.

There might be a lot of money in programming COBOL, but who wants to do that? It's not exciting to be a buzzard and subsist on carcasses.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#155

More proof Hackernews is completely isolated from game development.

Yeah, game dev here.. The amount of articles on the front page here that are like "10 things every programmer should know" and then are hyper focused on only web dev specific things is cringe. Thats just HN though, a subset of redditors who are gonna "change the world" and also become a billionaire with their CRUD app.

In case you missed it, someone posted on HN a few days ago to try and get a similar site and culture up here: https://gamedev.city/

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#156

The OS-based Windows 98/2000 Microsoft is dead. The Enterprise Microsoft is very much alive and well.

Sure they are alive, but they are not the 800 pound gorilla they used to be, who could freeze investments in an area just by announcing they are entering that area.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about being rich or not. People who can choose what kind of computer they have will choose Apple over PC. People who cannot choose will use work computers in their office with Windows installed, that corporate chose for them. People who do not want a computer at all will have neither PC or Mac. The majority of people do not want to have a computer – they see enough of them at work, and they are happy with th…

> People who can choose what kind of computer they have will choose Apple over PC. FYI, this guy is a troll. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41153109

You are just doing yourself a disfavor by dismissing anybody who doesn't think exactly like you as non-human (a troll, a bot, a Russian, a heretic!). On that route, you'll end up living your life much less than to the fullest. I think your example speaks for this.

Yes, I think that a graphical user interface would be excellent for a server. And I'm probably not the only one who would like that idea: Apple invested a bunch of money trying to do just that with their Mac OS X Server.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#158
post #5

Satya saved Microsoft by doubling down on Azure and Cloud. Something that Balmer failed to do with Mobile.

... by becoming OSS friendly, and especially Linux friendly. Prior to that Microsoft and Azure were irrelevant because nobody wanted to run their backends on Windows.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#159
post #81
post #66

It's interesting to read comments about this today, written through the lens of the present. I suspect many commenters were too young to really understand the level of dominance Microsoft had in the market circa from 1995-2005. Just look at this chart: https://www.extremetech.com/computing/143277-microsofts-shar... In 2004, outside of education and desktop publishing it was extremely rare to see an Apple computer at…

“That today Microsoft is a giant company is irrelevant...” I am not too young to remember the old Microsoft. To say that Microsoft is “irrelevant” is so myopic. Despite Tesla, GM is still relevant. Despite AWS, DB2 mainframes are still relevant. Heck, I have to work with EBCDIC data, a format designed to not produce holes in punchcards that are too close together . Even when we eventually move to a modern db, decades…

> "That today Microsoft is a giant company is irrelevant..."

> To say that Microsoft is “irrelevant” is so myopic.

That quote you quoted does not claim that Microsoft is irrelevant, it claims that the fact that Microsoft is a giant company today, is irrelevant.

Re: Microsoft Is Dead (2007)

#160
I'm surprised no one posted this: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2004/06/13/how-microsoft-lost...

Joel Spolsky was on the Excel team at MS, and was the lead on VBA. He prudently couches his doomsaying with this disclaimer:

> Microsoft has an incredible amount of cash money in the bank and is still incredibly profitable. It has a long way to fall. It could do everything wrong for a decade before it started to be in remote danger, and you never know… they could reinvent themselves as a shaved-ice company at the last minute. So don’t be so quick to write them off

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