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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#151

Post by FredPret »

neilv wrote: post #149

Maybe it will start climbing in probability, giving us a chance to reflect, and to improve our ways. Since, if we're already doing Nazi salutes at a US Presidential inauguration, less than 100 years after we'd learned that Nazis are pure evil, then I'd understand if some higher power was ready to hit the reset button. Maybe tardigrades would evolve better. (ProTip: Be sure to send a second asteroid, to Mars, ahead of…

You just Godwin'ed the crap out of this thing. Congratulations, I guess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law#:~:text=Godwin'...

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#152

Post by lou1306 »

pella wrote: post #63

2032 Mayan prophecy + 2024 YR4 = prime fuel for internet-born doomsday cults. "The final katun in the sequence that must happen before the new cycle of the katuns begins again is 13 Ahau. This starts in 2032 and ends in 2052. It is the time from 2032 to 2052, that great earth changes may take place. The translation from the codices about 13 Ahau that starts in 2032 is ‘Famine, plagues of locusts, and loss of rulers.…

Less exceptionalist American: the Maya predicted the Declaration of Independence

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#153

Post by rubyfan »

ars wrote: post #144
SubiculumCode wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If in 2032 an impact did occur, how much time before that impact would be able to ascertain over 50% probability of impact? hypothetically. That is, does the certainty increase steadily or non-linearly over time? Does near certainty of an impact occur from measurements taken just minutes before the impact, or hours, days, years?

We would see it years before, and we would know with certainty years before. If the object really looked like it might impact I'm sure someone would get time on a powerful telescope to lock in the orbit.

[flagged]

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#154

Post by Projectiboga »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

The guesswork is uncertainity about the object's exact paraneters. Because of this they have to use informed estimates (scientiffic guesswork).

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#155

Post by fghorow »

Gare wrote: post #98
ortusdux wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A comparable ocean impact would be the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, which was about 3x more energetic.

I'd assume quakes transform much more energy into tsunami waves than meteorite hit does.

That is not correct.

Earthquakes' energy doesn't all go to displacing water and hence generating tsunamis. An ocean impact is significantly more efficient at transferring energy into tsunamis.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B97804...

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#156

Post by SR2Z »

slackerIII wrote: post #102
ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

Great post, thank you! Where does the uncertainty (1%) come from? For example, is it more from our ability to precisely determine the orbit based on limited observations, or is it because orbits for objects like this just aren't predictable years out, or something else?

My guess is that small objects like this suffer greatly from the 3-body problem, and multiple trajectories are generated from various starting points inside our measured error bars for the current states of these objects. Small inaccuracies compound over the years.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#157

Post by [deleted] »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

[deleted]

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#158

Post by basementcat »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

The observations are not 100% certain. There are a variety of body states and configurations that might result in the same (few) pixels being lit up in the few measurements collected so far. As additional measurements are collected, some possibilities may be eliminated and the uncertainty of the trajectory can be reduced. This usually results in the impact probability converging toward 0%.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#159

Post by cozzyd »

VierScar wrote: post #137
renjimen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

It is very common to use Monte Carlo for deterministic problems. It's just an integral over complicated PDFs
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