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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

waymo.com

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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#151
post #20
post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

I can already see the sign "No manual driving allowed" at the entrance of highways.

Highways seem like they're safer than other roads but if we had fully autonomous highways I imagine speed limits could be effectively removed drastically reducing travel time.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#152
post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

> The future is bright. Ask the 2.3 million employed drivers in the United States how the future looks. Because pretty soon, they'll all need to be doing something else. And I don't see a technology that will open up 2.3 million jobs for them to move into, or training initiatives to support them while they shift professions. The future _could_ be bright, if we approach AI right, and build the social safety net to sof…

I think if we ban cars now we may still have a chance to save the horse industry

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#154

I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…

A few weeks ago I had the nice surprise that my usual strategy of starting to walk on the pedestrian crossing to test if a car driver has the intention of stopping, resulted in an emergency stop from a Tesla coming for the right (it was a two-way street and I was testing the car coming from my left). The Tesla correctly stopped, in accordance with the law. Its driver wasn't happy.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#155
post #147

I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…

As a cyclist I avoid eye contact like the plague: it's only a small minority of drivers, but that small minority is dangerous enough to outweigh all benefits eye contact might have with others. Some drivers will inevitably read eye contact as "the cyclist has seen me and understood that my big and dangerous car will crush them without taking harm so they will yield no matter what traffic rules might say, so I will go…

I don't cross in front of a car without knowing that that cars driver sees me. And sometimes you have to cross in front of a car. Most of those times everyone is just stopped at a light anyway, but not always, and some of those lights still allow the driver to proceed anyway if turning right, which they might do at any time.

I also ride a recumbent trike which is low to the ground. A diamond frame puts you up at eye level with most drivers and that makes everything easier.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#156
post #127
post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

It's impressive and all, but my reaction to self driving cars are completely different. It's a great technical feat, but it's not ever going to be efficient as public transportation. The form factor of the car works against it.

Public transport cannot do everything cars can do, especially outside big cities. Better public transport can reduce the need for car ownership - I did not own a car for much of my life for that reason. However, it does not eliminate it.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#157

No time to read the study, but does it correct for the circumstances of the claims - daylight, weather conditions, type of road?

Considering Waymo cherry picks conditions it drives on, this study is already fundamentally flawed.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#158
post #32

I can't trust that number if it comes from Waymo.com. I'd need to see it from an independant third party who has no interest having their finger on the scale

The authors are from: a Swiss Reinsurance Company, Ltd, Switzerland b Zardini Lab (research affiliate), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA c Autonomous Systems Laboratory (research affiliate), Stanford University, USA d Waymo LLC, USA e Casualty Actuarial Society, USA

So not independent. And published as a white paper on Waymo's website. And only addresses the collaboration between Waymo and the insurance company, no mention of who funded the academics. Pretty sure if you dig deep enough, Swiss Re is somehow a Waymo investor.

I'd trust this more if Waymo had a direct pipeline to an anonymized public repository of their complete data set for independent analysis

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Way to miss the point. Yes, it is known that the "NASA space pen" was not really funded by NASA, but but its development still took millions of dollars in R&D. > Is there a single developed economy that doesn't make significant use of trucks and cars? For the 127th time: car dependency is not the same as car usage.

> its development still took millions of dollars in R&D $1mm at the time, $10mm today. They sold for the equivalent of $30 each in today's money and saved manned spaceflight from having to deal with graphite shards in the air and electrical. > car dependency is not the same as car usage "If the richest country in the world" got "rid of its car dependency," we'd still want safer cars.

> we'd still want safer cars

With the technology controlled by a handful of corporations? At an development cost that will force them to create any and every opportunity to seek rent on your mobility?

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