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Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

timdellinger.substack.com

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Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#151
I've recently been working with a lot of service center productivity data. Staff productivity (customers/hour) is pretty close to a gaussian, with some skew towards many slight underperformers and few overperformers.

However, any single customer interaction is exponential or weibull distributed.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#152
post #82
post #65

One of the things I loved about working at Netflix was that the base assumption was that everyone was a top performer. If you weren't a top performer, you were given a severance check. The analogy we used was a sports team. Pro sports teams have really good players and great players. Some people are superstars, but unless you're at least really really good you're not on the team. Performance and compensation were com…

A bit offtopic, but I've been curious about this. Could you please describe how the unlimited vacation policy worked? How did people feel about it and whether they were anxious regarding using it (afraid that it will reflect on them badly when they take "too much" time off)?

I loved the unlimited vacation policy. I took more vacation at Netflix than anywhere else. No one was anxious about using it.

It helped that senior leadership set a good example. The CEO took a few weeks off every year and made sure everyone knew that it was ok to do that. He also made sure all his directs took a few weeks every year at a minimum.

There was a culture of management encouraging you to take advantage of the program.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#153
post #73
post #65

One of the things I loved about working at Netflix was that the base assumption was that everyone was a top performer. If you weren't a top performer, you were given a severance check. The analogy we used was a sports team. Pro sports teams have really good players and great players. Some people are superstars, but unless you're at least really really good you're not on the team. Performance and compensation were com…

> Performance and compensation were completely separate, which was also nice. Huh? How is that nice? Does performance and compensation not correlate in your ideal world, or am I misunderstanding it?

In my ideal world, no they do not. Pay equals what it would cost to rehire me today. Performance should always be great for what you are expected to do.

Where the two correlate is that if you're hiring a mid-level person they get mid-level pay, and if they are top performing mid-level, they get promoted to senior and get commensurate pay.

So performance leads to promotions which leads to better pay. But pay is not directly correlated with performance. I expect everyone in the same level to have equal performance (over the long term, of course there will be short term variations).

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#154

"Hey wait - is [arbitrary metrics] Gaussian distributed?" =3

This whole thread smh. It feels like a military power convinced it can win a war by flying around in airplanes at 30,000’ and they are here vigorously discussing their insane tactics. It’s time for me to leave Silicon Valley.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#155
post #75
post #65

One of the things I loved about working at Netflix was that the base assumption was that everyone was a top performer. If you weren't a top performer, you were given a severance check. The analogy we used was a sports team. Pro sports teams have really good players and great players. Some people are superstars, but unless you're at least really really good you're not on the team. Performance and compensation were com…

How can 360 peer performance reviews ever work? The incentives are against a fair evaluation: the reviewers have the incentive to overly criticize others so that they can stand out more. I'm not saying that everyone on a 360 review process does that. But the incentive is there and it's working against fair reviews.

If performance is not tied to pay, why would you have an incentive to do that?

If anything the incentive is problematic in the other direction. People tend to be nice because they don't want to say mean things that they know the manager will see.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#156

"IQ is Gaussian" – it was pointed out somewhere, and only then became obvious to me, that IQ is not Gaussian. The distribution is manufactured. If you have 1000 possible IQ questions, you can ask a bunch of people those questions, and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created. This is not unreasonable... if you picked out 100 super easy questions you wouldn't get…

> and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created. You missed an extremely important final step. People's scores on those 100 questions still aren't going to form a Gaussion distribution. You have to rank-order everyone's scores, then you assign the final IQ scores based on each person's ranking, not their raw score.

It would form a gaussian distribution if you pick the questions carefully enough.

If you rank-order scores and fit to the distribution after the fact, the questions are nearly irrelevant, as long as you have a mix of easy, medium and hard questions.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#157

> Performance management, as practiced in many large corporations in 2024, is an outdated technology that is in need of an update Author made a couple of fundamental mistakes: the first is they assume employees are (or should be) paid according to how much they "individually" earned the company. Employers strive to pay employees the minimum they can bear, on employer's terms. Those terms are information asymmetry and…

I have a crazy idea.

If a corporation lays off any people in a particular job category/title, that corporation should not be allocated ANY H1B visas for that job category/title for the next year.

If a corporation institutes any policy that requires decimation (or any other statistic-based termination program) of employees with a particular job category or title, or if IN EFFECT they perform this (because they will just hide it otherwise), then they will not be allocated any H1B visas for that job category or title, for the next year following any such act.

In essence, the point here is that if a corporation decides it can live without X% of their workforce, then they don't get to go bring in foreign workers. The H1B program is to help find workers for positions that can't be filled; if you're laying off or mass firing people then obviously you CAN find people to fill those jobs.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#158
post #157

> Performance management, as practiced in many large corporations in 2024, is an outdated technology that is in need of an update Author made a couple of fundamental mistakes: the first is they assume employees are (or should be) paid according to how much they "individually" earned the company. Employers strive to pay employees the minimum they can bear, on employer's terms. Those terms are information asymmetry and…

I have a crazy idea. If a corporation lays off any people in a particular job category/title, that corporation should not be allocated ANY H1B visas for that job category/title for the next year. If a corporation institutes any policy that requires decimation (or any other statistic-based termination program) of employees with a particular job category or title, or if IN EFFECT they perform this (because they will ju…

The play devil's advocate, presumably they're fired because they didn't meet standards (in whatever vague way they can justify) and they want foreign workers because local workers didn't meet those standards.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#159

> Performance management, as practiced in many large corporations in 2024, is an outdated technology that is in need of an update Author made a couple of fundamental mistakes: the first is they assume employees are (or should be) paid according to how much they "individually" earned the company. Employers strive to pay employees the minimum they can bear, on employer's terms. Those terms are information asymmetry and…

> The second mistake they made is assume that companies would prioritize being lean and trimming the mediocre & bottom 5%. There are other considerations, combined productivity is more important than having individual superstars working on the shiniest features. I'll add a perverse incentive too that I've talked about elsewhere – hiring is a goddamn mess right now. If I trim the bottom 5% of my org (in my case, 2-3 e…

I think the value of low performers becomes much more obvious when you separate out the concept of a toxic employee. Toxic employees hurt the team or organization whether low performing or high performing, and with rare exceptions it’s almost always worth getting rid of them. Toxic employees are the people getting into arguments and conflicts all the time, dragging others down constantly. Or they’re the managers who cause attrition or can’t retain their team or lie to their peers and own leadership until it catches up to them, often dramatically.

However, low performers are not always toxic. Often, low performers are just kind of lazy, or they take longer than they should to finish their work, or they take too long to reply to emails or messages, or their work needs extra review and checks and balances, or they are only capable of delivering on a relatively small set of fairly simple tasks, or they just want to work on the same part of the same product forever and can’t emotionally handle change, or …

Non-toxic low performers can be great because they’ll often do the unglamorous work for you for relatively low pay, and all you have to do is not bother them too much. The worst thing you can do with non-toxic low performers is try to force them into high performers. It won’t work, because they’re either not capable or they just don’t care. For some people, their work just isn’t that important to them, and there’s nothing you can do to change their perception of the relative importance of their job to the other aspects of their life. What might look like low performance in a corporate environment can just be someone setting boundaries and refusing to let work infringe too much on their personal life.

Re: Hey, wait – is employee performance Gaussian distributed?

#160

"IQ is Gaussian" – it was pointed out somewhere, and only then became obvious to me, that IQ is not Gaussian. The distribution is manufactured. If you have 1000 possible IQ questions, you can ask a bunch of people those questions, and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created. This is not unreasonable... if you picked out 100 super easy questions you wouldn't get…

IQ scores have proven highly correlated to educational achievement, occupational attainment, career advancement, lifetime earnings, brain volume, cortical thickness, health, longevity, and more.

To the point of being accurate predictors of these things even when controlling for things like socioeconomic background.

It's used because it works as a measuring tool, how the tests are constructed is largely irrelevant to the question of if the outcome of the test is an accurate predictor of things we care about.

If you think you have a better measuring tool you should propose it and win several awards and accolades. No one has found one yet in spite of many smart people trying for decades.

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