Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
"the polls" are often just part of a narrative to influence the outcome.
Trump wins presidency for second time
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Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#152Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
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Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#153Here's a European perspective that is somewhat pro-Trump, surprising as it may sound. I am Dutch and if someone would come along and promise the following: "We're gonna lower your taxes so you have more money to spend" "We're gonna take a sledge hammer to bloated policies so everything will run smoothly. Then we will build a million houses per year" I would very much consider voting for that person. That said, Trump…
> Then we will build a million houses per year
He actually promised the opposite of this last time, because suburbanites don't want any new housing built. I haven't checked what he said this time around.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#154[deleted]
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#155Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.
You didn't listen to what the pollsters were saying.
What they said was that they could not predict the outcome, and were giving basically 50/50 odds of either candidate winning, which is essentially just another way of saying "I have no idea".
Just because their odds were 50/50 though, does not mean the outcome would be close. The pollsters were all warning that the swing states would likely be strongly correlated, so if a candidate performed strongly in one swing state, they'd probably perform strongly in all of them.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#156Here's a European perspective that is somewhat pro-Trump, surprising as it may sound. I am Dutch and if someone would come along and promise the following: "We're gonna lower your taxes so you have more money to spend" "We're gonna take a sledge hammer to bloated policies so everything will run smoothly. Then we will build a million houses per year" I would very much consider voting for that person. That said, Trump…
I do think catering to nimbys was the democrat’s original sin in some respects. Housing unaffordability makes everything else worse and blue areas are especially bad.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#157My theory: people are just hacked off that life is getting worse for most people while billionaires get richer and richer. Every disaster the wealthy get handouts while the poor have to pay for them. Government can no longer afford anything because all of its assets have been sold and rented back at a profit. I don’t think either campaign made any difference to the outcome of this election at all. In conclusion it mi…
I know you're not advocating for it but it doesn't make sense to essentially vote in 2x billionaires into office.
I'm just disappointed we may never know what Russia has on Musk. He went from being an avid atheist Democrat to pretending to be a Christian and pushing for Republican like his life depended on it. What is he hiding? Why was he so afraid?
You might as well empty Arkham Asylum whilst all the pardons for crimes are being dished out.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#158It's interesting how bad the democrats seem to be at the game of winning elections. They continuously seem to pick bad candidates and poor strategies resulting in them losing the election when they seem to have had the general conditions for winning. This time, the elephant in the room is of course the late ousting of Joe Biden, but there were similar issues that (in hindsight at least) were obvious in the Clinton 20…
What I always find interesting is how Democrats insist their failure is due to a lack of sound strategy. That is of course a strategy in and of itself to NEVER admit that it might be a refutation of their policies or (gasp) their values. Telling yourself you just lost because you didn't "play the game" is a cope. It serves its purpose though, as it allows ardent followers to avoid actual self reflection.
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#159There might be a cultural issue here for the Dems. Many of the canvassers I met who were not retirees tended to be young women, often college-aged or a bit older, very liberal and very much benefitting directly from the economic status quo. To them, voting for anyone besides Harris was just completely insensible and they did not even bother to try and understand the views of anyone they spoke with (from what I could…
My mom canvassed for Harris in PA and she’s 64…
Re: Trump wins presidency for second time
#160Here's a European perspective that is somewhat pro-Trump, surprising as it may sound. I am Dutch and if someone would come along and promise the following: "We're gonna lower your taxes so you have more money to spend" "We're gonna take a sledge hammer to bloated policies so everything will run smoothly. Then we will build a million houses per year" I would very much consider voting for that person. That said, Trump…
“ I wanna do infrastructure. I wanna do it more than you want to do it. I’d be really good at that, that’s what I do.”
And then his party reminded him that that is specifically NOT what they do. They like to let the private sector handle everything, because that’s who funds them and how they get rich too.