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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#151

Post by rightbyte »

jojobas wrote: post #99
bruce511 wrote: post #30

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

So what you're saying is that the lesson of appeasing Hitler was all in vain.

What about the lesson of not 'appeasing' the Weimar Republic?

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#152

Post by est »

starspangled wrote: post #97
est wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports Are there any "exports" to ban after the fall? The TSMC production was interrupted by a metro passing by few kilometers away. How can it sustain in a war?

If the factories weren't bombed before Taiwan fell to the communists, I'd imagine hey would still be cut off from western semiconductor technology, so they would still end up falling behind even if they could get them restarted.

> get them restarted

How can you run a good restaurant business if all the chefs and customers were gone?

A nice setup of kitchen appliances surely means a lot but the key is the people.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#153

Post by Wytwwww »

RobotToaster wrote: post #148
InkCanon wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a somewhat shallow and more buzz phrasey explanation of it. China wanted to invade Taiwan long before it became a democracy. And China is adjacent to many prosperous democracies like Japan and South Korea. Not to mention the hundred million middle class Chinese tourists and numerous students who can see the developed democracies with their own eyes. With Occam's razor, the simple answer is really that they co…

> Taiwan did the same for many years. IIRC Officially the ROC still claim the entire mainland, Mongolia, and parts of Russia as their territory.

They don't really have a choice a about it though. PRC is basically threating to invade the movement Taiwan decided to renounce its claim on the rest of China.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#154

Post by Wytwwww »

spwa4 wrote: post #150
RobotToaster wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan did the same for many years. IIRC Officially the ROC still claim the entire mainland, Mongolia, and parts of Russia as their territory.

Plus there's the whole "it doesn't make economic sense for X to attack" which doesn't seem to have worked anywhere. Ideology seems to not just trump economic rationality in war, but to literally be the only factor. X can be: * Hamas * Hezbollah * Russia * Sudan RSF or SAF * Iran * Afghanistan The list goes on. All of these suffered greatly economically due to beginning unprovoked wars (only RSF has any real claim to…

> which doesn't seem to have worked anywhere

Well by definition it has worked in all other cases that you have not listed. Also you can't expect terrorist organizations to behave rationally (on a state/geopolitical level) and pretty much all Middle Eastern countries (besides Iran and they aren't 100% committed either) came to terms with the fact that Israel does and will continue to exist. Did that happen due to ideological factors?

I'd say that Russia is the only actual valid example and the economic outcome remains to be seen (unfortunately Russia has been doing remarkable well economically so far..).

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#155

Post by nosianu »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #106
PittleyDunkin wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> china doesn't want to control taiwan due to any economic reasons That's absolutely not true if only for the existence of TSMC.

if China invades Taiwan, there won't be much of TSMC left standing by the end.

I hear that statement repeated a lot, but I'm not so sure.

What is the incentive? If China invades, anyone involved in destroying that asset will have a huge problem for themselves afterwards, China won't forgive. On the other hand, see what happened in Ukraine, where in the initial invasion there was quite a bit of collaboration of some Ukrainians, for example Antonov leadership ("Antonov's leadership sabotaged defense of Hostomel airport" -- https://english.nv.ua/nation/antonov-s-leadership-sabotaged-...).

If they will have to live under China's rule, the incentive for the individuals is to cooperate with them and be richly rewarded for it. Who wants to sacrifice themselves - and likely their families too - to benefit some outsiders? Who are leaving you behind to fight for yourself? Which at that point is against your own interest if you don't think you can win. Especially when the invaders are from one's own greater "tribe", so that it is not as bad as being invaded by another people (like the French or the Americans in Vietnam).

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#156

Post by gwervc »

komali2 wrote: post #113
InkCanon wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the perspective of a third party and trying to understand things in a way that separates politics from reality (like PG says arguments involving identity are impossible to resolve), both Taiwanese and what might be called CCP-ese are largely political. Chinese has the rare quality of historically referring to ethnicity, language and culture to a degree not seen in most other peoples. There's also a final and mos…

> ethnically, linguistically and culturally Chinese Again I ask - where is this impression coming from? And for what definition of "Chinese?" Can you please write the specific term you're thinking of in Mandarin to be more clear? In English "Chinese" means too many things, especially with the CPC changing the definition over the last 50 years or so. To be fair, the same thing is happening in Mandarin, so it would hel…

> Second of all, Taiwan is not ethnically or culturally "Chinese" for basically all definitions of "Chinese."

That's factually wrong. Most of the country is populated by Chinese (speaking a variety of Sinitic languages, namely Min, Mandarin and Hakka). The non-Chinese population are the aboriginals and foreigners.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#157

Post by spwa4 »

Wytwwww wrote: post #154
spwa4 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus there's the whole "it doesn't make economic sense for X to attack" which doesn't seem to have worked anywhere. Ideology seems to not just trump economic rationality in war, but to literally be the only factor. X can be: * Hamas * Hezbollah * Russia * Sudan RSF or SAF * Iran * Afghanistan The list goes on. All of these suffered greatly economically due to beginning unprovoked wars (only RSF has any real claim to…

> which doesn't seem to have worked anywhere Well by definition it has worked in all other cases that you have not listed. Also you can't expect terrorist organizations to behave rationally (on a state/geopolitical level) and pretty much all Middle Eastern countries (besides Iran and they aren't 100% committed either) came to terms with the fact that Israel does and will continue to exist. Did that happen due to ideo…

If that's your measurement stick why aren't Iran and Afghanistan counted? You can't dismiss whole countries as terrorist organizations, no matter how they behave (China is at least as bad as Iran, for example, they also run a hostage taking business, and only difference in weaponry is that China actually rapidly succeeded in their nuclear program, which the world then proceeded to totally ignore and refuse to discuss. In Iran there seems to at least be the option of preventing them from going nuclear).

Also in both countries both the people that got into power created an economic disaster coming into power, including for 99% of their own faction (everyone except the leadership). Even their competitors, in both countries I believe that means communists, would have created an economic disaster. So it wasn't the taliban or mullahs per se that did it, well it was, but it would have happened due to other ideological reasons than the ideology that won out anyway.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#158

Post by waysa »

This is just market forces at work, driven by the demand in China. There is money to be made, so business people (maybe incentivized by CCP) will find ways to avoid sanctions. Nvidia probably could do more to counter this. But why would they? On paper everything looks fine and they make money off it.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#159

Post by akira2501 »

waysa wrote: post #158

This is just market forces at work, driven by the demand in China. There is money to be made, so business people (maybe incentivized by CCP) will find ways to avoid sanctions. Nvidia probably could do more to counter this. But why would they? On paper everything looks fine and they make money off it.

> This is just market forces at work

Laws are just market forces at work.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#160

Post by akira2501 »

clwg wrote: post #119
bruce511 wrote: post #30

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

In the event of a invasion TMSC in Taiwan will cease to function. "TMSC and its Dutch chip machine supplier ASML have made joint plans to remotely disable the machines in the event of an invasion." https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-ts...

They'll be disassembled and studied.
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