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USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

usgs.gov

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Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#151

Post by aaronblohowiak »

folli wrote: post #21

From the paper's method section, a bit more about which type of ML algo was used: An RF machine-learning model was developed to predict lithium concentrations in Smackover Formation brines throughout southern Arkansas. The model was developed by (i) assigning explanatory variables to brine samples collected at wells, (ii) tuning the RF model to make predictions at wells and assess model performance, (iii) mapping spa…

for other folks wonder what the acronym means; RF in this context is Random Forest

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#152

Post by unusualmonkey »

lazide wrote: post #150
unusualmonkey wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The energy density of fossil fuels means that those side-effects would be worse with other sources of energy. Can you expand on this? How does the density of fossil fuel make them a better source of energy than say wind?

One oil well can produce an amount of free energy (24/7) that a 100 acre wind farm can only produce sporadically, assuming the well is a reasonably high volume producer. It depends on the specific well/geology. The issue with fossil fuels is that they liberate fossil carbon, which has larger macro effects on the global environment. (It injects a lot of ‘new’ carbon into the carbon cycle) They also do sometimes have s…

> One oil well can produce an amount of free energy (24/7) that a 100 acre wind farm can only produce sporadically, assuming the well is a reasonably high volume producer. It depends on the specific well/geology.

Except it can't, a 100 acre wind farm can produce energy indefinitely while a oil well will eventually run dry.

The idea that fossil fuels are more ecologically favorable because it's 'dense' needs to address not only external factors, but that fossil fuels are non-renewable.

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#153

Post by skyfaller »

Animats wrote: post #103

There's also a big lithium deposit in Nevada, and preparations for mining are underway there.[1] General Motors put in $650 million for guaranteed access to the output of this Thacker Mine. It's in a caldera in a mountain that I-80 bypassed to go through Winnemuca, Nevada. Nearest town is Mill City, NV, which is listed as a ghost town, despite being next to I-80 and a main line railroad track. The mine site is about…

Not everyone agrees that this is a good place for a mine: https://www.protectthackerpass.org/

"to shut down the tar sands, we actually have to shut down the tar sands, not just blow up other mountains elsewhere and hope that leads to the end of the tar sands."

https://maxwilbert.substack.com/p/the-long-shadow-of-the-tar...

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#154

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

moffkalast wrote: post #109
__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #53

Great, now ask the AI to engineer a fungal genome that'll help us purify it more easily: Frack in the substrate and spores, harvest fruit bodies on the surface, profit.

I mean, what could possibly go wrong?

What are you worried about, zombies that want to eat your batteries?

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#155

Post by lanthade »

unusualmonkey wrote: post #152
lazide wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One oil well can produce an amount of free energy (24/7) that a 100 acre wind farm can only produce sporadically, assuming the well is a reasonably high volume producer. It depends on the specific well/geology. The issue with fossil fuels is that they liberate fossil carbon, which has larger macro effects on the global environment. (It injects a lot of ‘new’ carbon into the carbon cycle) They also do sometimes have s…

> One oil well can produce an amount of free energy (24/7) that a 100 acre wind farm can only produce sporadically, assuming the well is a reasonably high volume producer. It depends on the specific well/geology. Except it can't, a 100 acre wind farm can produce energy indefinitely while a oil well will eventually run dry. The idea that fossil fuels are more ecologically favorable because it's 'dense' needs to addres…

> Except it can't, a 100 acre wind farm can produce energy indefinitely while an oil well will eventually run dry.

Perhaps more true in that the wind (as far as we know) won’t run out but wind turbines do have a limited lifespan. After 20-30 years they usually need to be replaced. Some of the components are recycled but a significant portion - including the blades - are either not recyclable or not economically recyclable. Work is being done on this but there’s no guarantee it’ll produce dividends.

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#156

Post by dwattttt »

levocardia wrote: post #104
lordgrenville wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it turns out that there's no theoretical reason that gradient boosting will always outperform RF (which would violate the "no free lunch" theorem). But it does usually seem to be the case in practice, even with small and noisy data. I would hazard a guess that with better tuning, XGBoost would still have won. (The paper notes that the authors chose a suboptimal set of hyperparameters out of fear of overfitting - m…

That's been my experience. RF tends to do quite well out of the box, and is very fast to fit. It's less of a pain to cross-validate too, with fewer tuning parameters. XGBoost has a huge number of knobs to tune, and its performance varies from god-awful with bad hyperparameters to somewhat better than RF with good ones. Giant PITA with nested cross-validation, etc. though. I haven't read in detail what their validatio…

> your model would just learn to interpolate between geographically proximate locations

At a particular scale, this is entirely correct; if what I'm looking for is 'large', a measurement 1m away from a known hit would also be likely to be a hit.

That particular issue sounds like it should be addressed with more negative samples.

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#157

Post by atq2119 »

dyauspitr wrote: post #49
hinkley wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My only experience with Arkansas was waking up to a speeding ticket at 3 in the morning. Who puts out a speed trap at 3 in the fucking morning? But if it’s anything like Oklahoma…

Towns that make a living by ticketing people passing through. The worst place in the world for this is Italy. Every time I go there they find some esoteric rule to ticket me for. This time in Padova, apparently I drove in an area where only locals are allowed to drive. Bunch of swindlers.

This is the kind of story that may say more about the story teller than the place it's about.

(I have driven in Italy as a foreigner several times without ever receiving a ticket.)

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#158

Post by lightedman »

hinkley wrote: post #20
thesuitonym wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would assume any positive effects are balanced out by living in Arkansas.

My only experience with Arkansas was waking up to a speeding ticket at 3 in the morning. Who puts out a speed trap at 3 in the fucking morning? But if it’s anything like Oklahoma…

"Who puts out a speed trap at 3 in the fucking morning?"

Cops trying to catch drunks speeding home after the bars have closed. In the south, last call was 2:45AM where I served as a freshly-turned 21 year old.

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#159

Post by unusualmonkey »

lanthade wrote: post #155
unusualmonkey wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One oil well can produce an amount of free energy (24/7) that a 100 acre wind farm can only produce sporadically, assuming the well is a reasonably high volume producer. It depends on the specific well/geology. Except it can't, a 100 acre wind farm can produce energy indefinitely while a oil well will eventually run dry. The idea that fossil fuels are more ecologically favorable because it's 'dense' needs to addres…

> Except it can't, a 100 acre wind farm can produce energy indefinitely while an oil well will eventually run dry. Perhaps more true in that the wind (as far as we know) won’t run out but wind turbines do have a limited lifespan. After 20-30 years they usually need to be replaced. Some of the components are recycled but a significant portion - including the blades - are either not recyclable or not economically recyc…

Sure, but the same likely applies to Oil as well right? Fossil Fuels don't magically extract and refine themselves.

What analysis do you point to that suggests fossil fuels have a smaller impact than, say, wind?

Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas

#160

Post by snakeyjake »

silisili wrote: post #42
snakeyjake wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People downvoted you to the point that your comment is grayed out and about to be hidden but there is hardly metric by which Arkansas is not in the bottom ten on a list of states. Infant mortality rate? 3rd most deadly for babies. Poverty rate? 7th poorest. Homicide rate? 7th most dangerous. Obesity rate? 3rd fattest. Practically any map of any measurable statistic where states are colored red for "bad" and green for…

Here's another list - Highest poverty rate? Lowest literacy rate? Last in opportunity? 8th worst in public safety? If you guessed California, you'd be right. Sweeping generalities and handpicked metrics do not tell an entire story.

>If you guessed California, you'd be right.

No I wouldn't.

California's poverty rate is lower than Arkansas', and California's literacy rate is higher five other states' (practically tied with Arkansas).

https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17826#P675e89693a5...

https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/piaac/skillsmap/src/PDF/STATE.pd...

Also, I'm in California right now for work.

It suuuuuuuuuuuuucks. Places with billboards aren't my vibe and when every other one is an ad for a personal injury or drunk driving attorney the place is DEFINITELY not for me.

Still not as bad as Arkansas, though.

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