It will likely take well over a decade to recoup investment on any new chip fab at this point. Chasing ~4 customers on one narrow use case is nonsensical from the perspective of anyone running these companies.
TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
Huh? What original article? The Toms Hardware article is a copy and paste of the NYT one.
The original article I was referring to is the NYT piece, which covers more of the complexities around chip manufacturing and energy needs. While the Tom's Hardware article draws from it, the summary focuses more on personality clashes, losing some of the nuanced details about supply chain challenges.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#153My nerd hype died as I used gpt4+ and Claude 3.5+ whatever for coding tasks and realized if a human somewhere in the training data hadn't already solved a programming problem/wrote code for a solution the LLM's are useless for said problem.
They're useful as an assistant/junior coder to do repetitive tasks/things you/other humans already have already done tho. BUT that's not going to revolutionize programming as you already have to know how to code to use them.
* and "hallucinations" should be referred to as "bullshitting" when it comes to LLM's as that's what it really is.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…
Current LLMs fail if what you're coding is not the most common of tasks. And a simple web app is about as basic as it gets. I've tried using LLMs for some libraries I'm working on, and they failed miserably. Trying to make an LLM implement a trait with a generic type in Rust is a game of luck with very poor chances. I'm sure LLMs can massively speed up tasks like front-end JavaScript development, simple Python script…
Personally, I just use the hell out of Django for that. And since tools like that are already ridiculously productive, I don't see much upside from coding assistants. But by and large, so many of our tools are so surprisingly _bad_ at this, that I expect the LLM hype to have a lasting impact here. Even _if_ the solutions aren't actually LLMs, but just better tools, since we reconfigured how long something _should_ take.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#155Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…
Zero sum game or fixed lump of work fallacy. Think second order effects - now that we spend less time repeating known methods, we will take on more ambitious work. Competition between companies using human + AI will raise the bar. Software has been cannibalizing itself for 60 years, with each new language and framework, and yet employment is strong.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#156I was having some kind of issue the other day - browser cache corruption issue or ChatGPT hiccuped for a few minutes - but I needed to know an answer for a thing RIGHT NOW. I reluctantly went back to Google and searched for it the old way. Just ... OMFG ... I used to do this all the time? This used to be how you learned things? You mean I get to read 10 sites and 25 dumb answers to get to a possibly correct one? And…
No. Google is really not useful anymore, it wasn't like that. It is IMPOSSIBLE to search for what you want, Google just think they know what you want and literally change the words to match. It is crazy.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#157Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#158Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…
I agree on the first two points. On the third point, I think we've always seen this happen even in massive shocks like the Industrial Revolution (and the Second Industrial Revolution with assembly lines etc. and the Computer Age) It might be hard for people to retrain to whatever the new opportunities are though. Although perhaps somewhat easier nowadays with the internet etc.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#159What PG see in him as a teenager to proclaim he is 'Michael jordan of listening' or that he knew within 3 mins that sam is next bill gates. These are actual paul graham quotes not something from Silicon Valley TV show. Edit: to ppl responding "you should already know know paul graham is a grifter" . I don't believe is the case given his essays about meritocracy.
Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
>when the dust settles we'll have LLMs significantly more powerful than the current cutting edge -- which is already useful. LLMs, irrespective of how powerful, are all subject to the fundamental limitation that they don't know anything. The stochastic parrot analogy remains applicable and will never be solved because of the underlying principles inherent to LLMs. LLMs are not the pathway to AGI.
Arguing over terminology like "AGI" and the verb "to know" is a waste of time. The question is what tools can be built from them and how can people use those tools.
I thought a forum of engineers would be more interested in the practical applications and possible future capabilities of LLMs, than in all these semantic arguments about whether something really is knowledge or really is art or really is perfect