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You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
151–158 of 158 posts
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#152It's true, anecdotes are not data and have no statistical weight whatsoever. However, anecdotes can and do (and should) play a large role in influencing how we think. They can humanize a problem and create food for thought in a way that no amount of statistics ever could. For example, it's one thing to cite statistics that children of gay parents do just as well as those of straight parents (I have no idea if it's tr…
That is an excellent point, and well expressed. I do see how anecdotes and stories can be used in a very positive way to shift opinion; there are definitely some grey regions. (How do you know you're on the right sight?)
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#153Well I think Stalin summed up the perils of totally ignoring anecdotes pretty well: "One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic." This topic sort of came up the other day in the thread about the girl losing the iPad software she needs to talk (Silencing Maya). http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4103344 Some commenters thought the story should be ignored as a data point about the societal value of patents. I…
I don't understand the part about Stalin's advice. What was Stalin saying would happen if you ignored anecdotes? How do you figure he was talking about the value of anecdotes?
He was talking about undertaking large activities (war for example) that would kill hundreds of thousands of people could be tolerated politically by a populace in a way that a single murder might cause an outrage. The large numbers make the horror abstract. It's easier for people to relate to a story about a specific individual.
The quote (and variations) are quite famous, it might be apocryphal, but I think it is true. Hearing about hundreds of thousands of people massacred in a foreign land doesn't hit home when you are reading about far away.
That's why reporters (New York Times style)try to weave in illustrations and stories about individuals even when discussing a larger trend.
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#154I had to vote this up because of the meta-nature of the article. If anybody makes a comment disagreeing with it while sharing an anecdote they only play into's the author's theme! It's like accusing somebody of being in denial: there's nothing they can say in return that doesn't somehow support the idea that they are in denial. Love it. Having said that, this is another really bad article in what seems like an endles…
The author was referring to contrarian anecdotes in reply to statistical data, not someone's opinion. - He is only arguing that there is universal truth in proxy by arguing that the scientific method is more valuable than anecdotal evidence. If you don't agree with that, you probably disagree with most of HN (pure conjecture, does anyone else here think anecdotal evidence is more valuable than statistical analysis?)…
does anyone else here think anecdotal evidence is more valuable than statistical analysis?
To a certain degree I do. I would go even so far and say that the provider of the contrarian perspective is making a scientific contribution, by pointing out the lacking external validity of the original study. I personally believe that the more interesting phenomenons in science are those incidents, when "things" are acting different than expected. Contrarian anecdotes are most often the best starting places for these phenomenons.
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#155Contrarian anecdotes can be very useful (and logically sound) when they are contrary to a generalization. If someone asserts "f(x) = 5 for all x in A", "f(a) = 3 and a in A" is a logical contradiction proving the assertion false. And, frankly, if we're talking about public discussion of scientific papers, inappropriate generalization is as big a problem as contrarian anecdotes, if not bigger. Scientific papers often…
Have you ever seen that sort of generalization in an article on Hacker News? Even when you have situations like, e.g. nobody has ever recorded a case of a person with a certain genotype being infected by a norovirus, you don't see papers claiming that its impossible.
Yes. Realize that often the generalizations are a lot more subtle than your example, and of course anecdotes aren't always the best or only counter-arguments you'll see, even if they are valid. Start looking and I am sure you will find examples.
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
When you cannot control all the variables, it's important to have a large enough sample that the randomness in each direction for the different variables essentially cancels itself out. Also what does "the statistical significance of short-term studies is zero" mean? I don't think it means what you think it means. I would argue that short-term studies (for nutrition anyway) have little clinical significance, despite…
> When you cannot control all the variables, it's important to have a large enough sample that the randomness in each direction for the different variables essentially cancels itself out. That's nice in theory, but does not happen for most published research. > I'm in medicine, and I read papers all the time detecting a statistical difference between control and experimental groups, but the difference is so tiny that…
Speaking only to the middle part of my experience with modest research creeping up in significance, I would say that I see that sometimes but not regularly. Given, as you say, the tenure publishing requirements, I feel that I often see a flood of similar studies after a "proof of concept" that actually helps to flesh out the issue.
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
Disagree. Successful entrepreneurs are lottery winners with attitude, by and large. The programming field is no longer young, we should give up that old excuse. And no you are not being straw-manned, the argument is. Good to not take things personal here. Studies are necessarily narrow and context-laden, even 'solid and definite' ones. The suggestion to automatically downvote anecdotes is too broad, and should be ref…
> Successful entrepreneurs are lottery winners with attitude, by and large. Possibly. Actually I don't know. Anyone knowledgeable should disregard my opinion. > The programming field is no longer young, we should give up that old excuse. Right. However, I don't feel like we're anywhere near clearing the chaos around the psychology of programming. I still don't know for instance why so many people cannot understand fu…
Yes; it would be wonderful if comments could be categorized. Something like meta tags, created by the community or automatically even. I would like that; it would be like an extra conscience telling me "This guy was making an observation, not an argument; target your response correctly".
Re: You Should Downvote Contrarian Anecdotes
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
Forgot whimsy doesn't play on HN - too many literal thinkers. Sorry, I'll refrain.
Jokes such as those are really bad for a good discussion. They serve to prove to people on your "side" (an idiotic notion, but I digress), how stupid the people on the other side are. I would downvote if I could.
Sorry again; I commented while in an excited emotional state. Though it embarrasses me how many times that give better karma than a reasoned paragraph putting forth a cogent argument.