Apple is America's semiconductor problem • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#151

Post by hedgehog » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 1:30 AM UTC

sqeaky wrote: post #137

hedgehog wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought it was weak, his core argument seems to boil down to the idea that if there were more domestic competition then device manufacturers would somehow be willing to buy worse chips for more money. It just doesn't make any sense. The woes of Intel, Micron, etc are nobody's faults but their own.

If there were more domestic producers would their chips still be worse?

He's arguing for more competition on the customer side (with Apple) but starting more domestic fabs wouldn't directly help unless they have backing with patience and absurdly deep pockets. A big reason we're in this situation is that it's incredibly expensive to stay at the leading edge, and even when you have the money it's hard to do (see: Intel). Intel is only one node behind (N4 at a fab in Ireland), I'm not sure what will be running in their new US fab in Arizona but it will probably be an older process when they get online. Same with TSMC's facility. Maybe that's good enough, there are also very few customers that have the volume to justify spending on the latest process.

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#152

Post by acdha » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 1:57 AM UTC

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #94

p1necone wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine sales numbers and profits are publicly available information, whereas actual # of units produced is likely not an easy number to find?

Given Android has 71% of the worldwide market share it’s difficult to make the argument Apple holds a monopoly on the smartphone market [1]. Even in the US, until about 2020, Android had a higher subscriber base, and there is no reason the situation could not reverse and iOS drop below its July 2023 53% subscriber market share [2]. Moreover, give iPhones are significantly more expensive than comparable Android phones…

> iPhones are significantly more expensive than comparable Android phones

This misperception is key to understanding the market, which is really two markets: Android has cheaper phones and dominates there but in the mid to high-end market the situation is reversed because the equivalent Android devices aren’t cheaper and because Qualcomm/Samsung lagged so far behind on CPU performance you’re getting something which performs like 1-2 iPhone generations back in most apps.

Breaking out of that dynamic is hard because the Android manufacturers have to share more of their hardware revenue with less service revenue to compensate, so they don’t really have much room to lower prices since they’re already underperforming at the same price points.

What could change a lot would be regulators forcing App Store competition or limiting revenue sharing across units. Apple and Google both benefit from that at the expense of the pure hardware vendors, but I’m not sure how effective e.g. the EU App Store regulations will prove in practice.

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#153

Post by acdha » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 2:13 AM UTC

necovek wrote: post #136

Jtsummers wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> iPhone which was an iPod touch with a modem. I mean, that's not totally wrong, but by the release dates completely backwards. The iPod Touch is an iPhone without the modem.

Sure, iPod touch was not much of a difference maker, and I am likely misremembering the dates.

You also missed that Macs were becoming pretty popular before iPhones existed. There were multiple reasons for this but the timeline is nowhere near as simple as you portrayed it.

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#154

Post by Kirby64 » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 2:50 AM UTC

rowanG077 wrote: post #95

downWidOutaFite wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think that's a pretty good proxy for units? Especially leading edge parts.

It really isn't. Apple pays insanely well to exclusively use TSMC top tier node. I would not be surprised if the SoC in an iphone costs Apple 10 times as much as the average android phone SoC.

The “average” SoC or the high end ones in flagships? Don’t be surprised at how much Qualcomm charges for their flagship stuff. Even if Qualcomm is a node behind, they also need their “margin” for making the thing. Apple pays a big design team, but they don’t pay the additional margin on the SoC… just whatever TSMC charges. Remember, Qualcomm has to pay TSMC too.

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#155

Post by BenFranklin100 » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 4:32 AM UTC

acdha wrote: post #152

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given Android has 71% of the worldwide market share it’s difficult to make the argument Apple holds a monopoly on the smartphone market [1]. Even in the US, until about 2020, Android had a higher subscriber base, and there is no reason the situation could not reverse and iOS drop below its July 2023 53% subscriber market share [2]. Moreover, give iPhones are significantly more expensive than comparable Android phones…

> iPhones are significantly more expensive than comparable Android phones This misperception is key to understanding the market, which is really two markets: Android has cheaper phones and dominates there but in the mid to high-end market the situation is reversed because the equivalent Android devices aren’t cheaper and because Qualcomm/Samsung lagged so far behind on CPU performance you’re getting something which p…

It sounds to me like you’re saying that Apple management recognized that an integrated ecosystem (phone, tablet, watch, desktop OS etc…) could offer significant value to its costumers (in Apple’s case, the customer is the end user) while providing sufficient margin to serve as a profitable business model. Google, an advertising company, was focused on giving away free stuff (Gmail, Android, etc…) as an means to build profiles of its users that it could sell to its customers (in this case, advertisers).

A bit off topic, but I personally find Google, and by extension, the Android ecosystem, to be an underhanded business model. I don’t feel bad it’s ending poorly for them. It’s especially rich Google ripped off Apple in order to get Android launched [1].

[1] https://www.mactrast.com/2013/12/inside-story-android-ripped...

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#156

Post by doctorpangloss » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 4:39 AM UTC

duskwuff wrote: post #141

alephnerd wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Automotive's advanced features require chips but not the most advanced chips Exactly, and if Matt Stoller was honest he would bring up that point. Most automotive chips use 28nm, 40nm, and 60nm nodes and China has been very competitive in this space now because of existing capacity built from OSAT and AMTP consolidation in China by Taiwanese and Malaysian/Singaporean players like UMC before the 2019 HK protests, Me…

Also probably worth mentioning that a lot of the automotive chip shortages were a result of industry-specific factors: 1) Auto manufacturers incorrectly predicted that the pandemic would result in much lower sales, and reduced their component orders accordingly. When auto sales stayed stronger than expected, they were forced to buy those parts on the open market - reducing the number available to other customers. 2)…

Autos manufacturers assembled 1000 parts in China and call it 1 chip for import quota purposes.

There was no “chip” shortage. There was an assembly labor shortage in China, a real shortage, cause by the disruption of the pandemic.

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#157

Post by shiroiushi » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 4:46 AM UTC

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #129

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a tagalong to my comment, I really wish Android phone makers would get their act together and give Apple better competition. If the trends of the last ten years hold up, iPhones might actually become a monopoly product at some point. ;)

> I really wish Android phone makers would get their act together and give Apple better competition Google and Samsung tried and failed. Google with their flagship Pixel line, which just doesn't sell well, so they moved downmarket. Samsung with their Galaxy line, but they're always playing catchup/copycat to Apple. The sad fact is that 1) Google sucks at hardware, 2) Samsung sucks at taste. Apple really has a magical…

LG had great hardware and great taste. Unfortunately, consumers weren't interested, outside of a small minority who liked some of the somewhat geeky features that LG pioneered (like always-on screen display) or added (like fancy audio DACs).

Agreed that Samsung is just playing copycat to Apple. They used to make great, innovative phones without being a copycat, like back in the S4/S5 days, but then they just decided to copy everything Apple did, like eliminating the headphone jack.

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#158

Post by zombiwoof » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 4:47 AM UTC

Tim Cook

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#159

Post by zombiwoof » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 4:48 AM UTC

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #129

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a tagalong to my comment, I really wish Android phone makers would get their act together and give Apple better competition. If the trends of the last ten years hold up, iPhones might actually become a monopoly product at some point. ;)

> I really wish Android phone makers would get their act together and give Apple better competition Google and Samsung tried and failed. Google with their flagship Pixel line, which just doesn't sell well, so they moved downmarket. Samsung with their Galaxy line, but they're always playing catchup/copycat to Apple. The sad fact is that 1) Google sucks at hardware, 2) Samsung sucks at taste. Apple really has a magical…

Dunno I switched from iPhone 15 after almost as many years as an iPhone user to a new Pixel and find it more superior

Re: Apple is America's semiconductor problem

#160

Post by klausa » Fri, Aug 09, 2024, 4:55 AM UTC

Jtsummers wrote: post #66

Arn_Thor wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple was an Intel customer. Talking about Apple’s role in the semiconductor sector MUST include Intel because one must explain how and why Apple decided to develop their own (first mobile, then computer) chips in the first place instead of sticking with Intel. Why is Intel not competitive? THAT question seems much more pertinent to America’s chip travails

> one must explain how and why Apple decided to develop their own (first mobile, then computer) chips in the first place instead of sticking with Intel. Re mobile: 1. Timelines. Apple only transitioned to Intel in 2006 on their computer side, the first iPhone was announced in 2006. As a company they had little overall Intel experience. There was no "sticking with Intel" because they'd just switched to Intel concurren…

The parallel version of history in which iPhone launched with an Intel CPU inside is not _that_ far off:

https://www.theverge.com/2013/5/16/4337954/intel-could-have-...