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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#151

Post by red75prime »

Kwpolska wrote: post #77
zeeZ wrote: post #7

> I assume it would have corrected itself eventually and gone back onto the main lane. > Another case where I’m sure it would have corrected itself eventually [...]. Why? That's some bold assumptions. If it's going to fail, let it (as long as it's safe and legal), and see what it actually does.

Why would he do something Tesla should have done? Why would he risk his life for a blog post? He’s a regular person trying to reach his destination, not a Tesla beta tester with Tesla-funded insurance in case the car tries to kills him.

The author wasn't in danger: "[...] both cases are not life-or-death situations [...]"

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#152

Post by roca »

musha68k wrote: post #124

Good analysis but did many people miss what happened during the Tham Luang cave rescue? One of his most terrible (failed) marketing stunts: https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Elon-Musk-accuse-the-cave-dive... > I’ve had a Model Y for more than 3 years now, well before Elon revealed himself as the kind of person he really is, and I’ve been happy with it.

Yeah, I thought exactly the same thing. If you didn't know what kind of person Elon is after the Thai cave diver incident in 2019, you weren't paying much attention.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#153

Post by t43562 »

KaiserPro wrote: post #38
Onavo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> TV said he was buying a Tony Stark car. Then TV revealed that Tony Stark was two Mussolinis in a trenchcoat. Car bad now Do you celebrate the moon landing? The US maintaining a constant lead in aerospace over the rest of the world? Those were built by the Mussolini supporters of the world. NASA and Saturn V would not have existed if not for the nice German folks who were recruited to work for Uncle Sam. Science and…

> Those were built by the Mussolini supporters of the world I mean that's a stretch. Were they designed by literal ex-nazis? yes. Crucially I don't remember von braun interceding in political discussions advocating for a position on anything other than space. But there are two points that stem from this: can a person change (for better or worse)? can the public at large reliably recognise that change?

Von Braun was a Nazi party member and used slave labor IIRC. Why would anyone think he would change? I bet Von Braun didn't. The US just used him, after trying not to, because he was too useful. Nobody was going to give him any more slave labor so what evil could he do?

Musk is another kettle of fish - he's very rich and has the potential to do a great deal of evil.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#154

Post by lucianbr »

drcode wrote: post #131

I have FSD v12 and for my drives, in my part of the country, I have to do a mild safety intervention maybe once a week (like, getting closer to another car than I'm comfortable with) sorry other people are having different experiences, but FSD is a significant quality of life improvement for me. Nothing is nicer than getting in the car after a long day and letting it chauffeur me home. (yes I still pay attention)

I wonder if the guy who died when his Telsa drove under a truck would have written a similar comment the day before. What do you think?

I mean this one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2023/t...

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#155

Post by glitchcrab »

devnull3 wrote: post #114
deng wrote: post #54

And please keep in mind that this is pretty much in the optimal settings for FSD: great weather, huge streets, everything is as "car friendly" as it gets. I'd like to see FSD navigating an old Italian city, there's just no way. Even in car-friendly Germany you very often have streets with side-parking, which are too narrow to fit two cars, you need to communicate with oncoming cars, for instance by waving or flashing…

> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

I was driving a rental in Marrakech last week; that was an intense experience but India is on another level.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#156

Post by penjelly »

zeeZ wrote: post #7

> I assume it would have corrected itself eventually and gone back onto the main lane. > Another case where I’m sure it would have corrected itself eventually [...]. Why? That's some bold assumptions. If it's going to fail, let it (as long as it's safe and legal), and see what it actually does.

author pointed out that either way drivers behind him would've been very confused, so even if it DID correct, it still made mistakes that disrupted the flow of traffic.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#157

Post by DennisP »

grumbelbart wrote: post #101
rvnx wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it sort of works in limited cases. FSD is like ChatGPT, it works in many cases, it does some mistakes, but it is certainly not “useless”. It won’t replace full time humans yet (the same way that ChatGPT does not replace a developer) but can still work in some scenarios. To the investor, ChatGPT is sold as “AGI is just round the corner”.

But "works in limited cases" is absolutely not enough, given what it promises. It drove into static objects a couple of times, killing people. Recent videos still show behavior like speeding through stop signs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGOo06xzCeU&t=990s Meaning that it's really not reliable enough to take your hands off the wheel. Waymo shows that it is possible, with today's technology, to do much much bette…

It's not enough for robotaxis yet, and Tesla doesn't claim that it is. They just think they'll get there.

What they do claim is that with human supervision, it lowers the accident rate to one per 5.5 million miles, which is a lot better than the overall accident rate for all cars on the road. And unlike Waymo, it works everywhere. That's worthwhile even if it never improves from here.

Fwiw you can take your hands off the wheel now, you just have to watch the road. They got rid of the "steering wheel nag" with the latest version.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#158

Post by l33tman »

ENGNR wrote: post #70

How does Tesla FSD fair against the Waymo self driving taxis? I'm curious about whether self driving is still an impossible task right now, or if it's just a matter of quality between companies - in which case it's possibly a fair bet being made by Telsa execs that they'll bridge the gap given time and money.

Tangentially, but I'm wondering how the calculations really go with the robo-taxis. Taxidrivers here are probably getting $5/h or so and it's a job you can get without any skills at all, you don't need to speak the language and you don't need any tests, you just need to be able to sit down, input stuff on a GPS and drive. So there's an infinity of people to employ if you're a cab company. Neither Waymo nor Tesla want to give the tech away for free. Is there a market (without corporate subsidies from Waymo etc)?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#159

Post by red75prime »

forgot-im-old wrote: post #59
acchow wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. For the easy 99.999% of driving they keep very little of the training data. Basically you want to minimize manual interventions (aka disengagements). When the driver intervenes, they keep a few seconds before (30 seconds?) and after that intervention and add that to the training data. So their training data is basically just the exceptional cases. They need to just make sure they don’t overfit so that the learned…

It's not clear that a bunch of cascaded rectified linear functions will every generalize to near 100%. The error floor is at a dangerous level regardless of training. AGI is needed to tackle the final 1%>

The universal approximation theorem disagrees. The question is how large the network should be and how much training data it needs. And for now it can only be tested experimentally.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#160

Post by skunkworker »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #94
ENGNR wrote: post #70

How does Tesla FSD fair against the Waymo self driving taxis? I'm curious about whether self driving is still an impossible task right now, or if it's just a matter of quality between companies - in which case it's possibly a fair bet being made by Telsa execs that they'll bridge the gap given time and money.

The Waymo cars drive themselves without (in person) supervision. As best as I can tell from three rides, they do it perfectly. However the range is limited to city streets in a few cities, no interstates at all (they are adding this soon.) The Tesla FSD even at v12 can go about five minutes before I have to intervene. If you’re extremely tolerant and don’t care what other drivers think (eg weird slow behavior at stop…

Once Tesla starts hiring hundreds of Robotaxi intervention engineers then we will know they are serious, otherwise it's just a marketing ploy.
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