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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#151

Post by IncreasePosts »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #150
gizajob wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they genuinely solve self-driving, then it seems like it. Tesla three years ago didn't have any competition and now they do, so big differentiation is needed, and FSD would be it.

Based on my experience with it a couple months ago when they gave everyone a 1-month free trial of it, Tesla is close in that it handles 95% of situations perfectly. But it's still incredibly far away because that last 5% is going to take many more years. There were some parts that genuinely surprised me in how good it was. For example, I drove through a construction zone where there were cones on the ground divertin…

I didn't experience any major safety concerns when using the free self driving trial, but I ended up only using it on completely empty roads because I was too embarrassed about how cautious it drove.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#152

Post by Jlagreen »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #132
latchkey wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poor choice of examples. Bitcoin at $71k is hardly a flop. That was a term coined by stephenson during the early web, 1992. Virtual worlds are still extremely popular.

If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was…

Correct, so it's impossible to determine the winners and losers in AI.

But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing. So it's not so difficult to predict that Nvidia will be a clear winner. Nvidia has had competition for 8 years in the AI space. Their market share today is more dominant than it ever used to be.

Probably, Nvidia has already won because of 5 million CUDA developer who will hardly switch to other platforms. It's basically Windows SDK and Apple/Android SDK reloaded.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#153

Post by Jlagreen »

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #108
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> Is it changing your life? According to the mainstream media, AI is supposed to replace me / make me obsolete within 5 years.

I have invested in Nvidia 8 years ago. So if AI becomes huge and replaces me than I'll simply retire on my shares otherwise I'll still have a job. Investing in Nvidia is called hedging your job :)

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#154

Post by Jlagreen »

partiallypro wrote: post #110

Nvidia's value is in its software. CUDA is where the money is and why their chips sell. On paper AMD chips are just as good, sometimes better, but AMD/Radeon software and drivers are awful and have been awful for well over 20 years. That is probably moated for a few years still. I do think the stock is grossly overvalued, but that doesn't always matter, it can still go up. I would be surprised for it to surpass Micro…

The reason we use Windows so much on PCs still today is that MS was first with a SDK for PC applications. Simple as that. It's the same reason why we have no Windows on mobile phones. MS was too late and Apple/Google already won the market with their SDK. It's not like MS can't do SW but it's hard to persuade developers to develop for your platform if your platform is But people are expecting exactly this from AMD to make happen. AMD is a HW company. You can clearly see it in their roadmaps, in their mindset and in their communication. If you look at Nvidia and their publications then it's 80% about SW solutions and only 20% HW. Even GTC 2024 where Blackwell was released, was >50% about SW solutions presentation.

However, AI competition will be won with SW, not with HW. Enterprises need consultancy, guidance and help in properly training their data and putting it to use. Buying HW is pointless for them because they have no clue about AI. They first have to learn so they need consulting. This is a job for SW companies, not for HW companies. And interestingly, Nvidia is right there at the front and has not only direct engagements but partnerships with all large IT consulting companies.

I wonder, which HW would a company deploying Nvidia Enterprise AI SW suite use? AMD maybe?

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#155

Post by aprilthird2021 »

Jlagreen wrote: post #152
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was…

Correct, so it's impossible to determine the winners and losers in AI. But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing. So it's not so difficult to predict that Nvidia will be a clear winner. Nvidia has had competition for 8 years in the AI space. Their market share today is more dominant than it ever used to be. Probably, Nvidia has already won because of 5 million CUDA develope…

> But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing.

They may not. Like I said before, there have been many very innovative technologies that did not see uptake by the general public as was expected (VR, cryptocurrency).

AI could be the next cloud computing that every company pays for but which eventually commoditized down to a relatively low margin business. It could be something Nvidia strangleholds and milks money out of for decades with little competition like Facebook with social media, or it could be something people don't reach for as much as we thought they would. We don't know yet

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