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How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

fortune.com

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Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you make sure there isn’t human semen or worse on the seats on which you and your children will sit? At least with taxis driven by humans you knew that there was someone making sure that won’t happen that often, but with driverless taxis all bets are off.

Waymos have been far cleaner than the Ubers I've ridden in. I think they are cleaned daily?

I wonder how this affects the price. Is the price you're paying now the real price, or a subsidised price?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#153
post #3

I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall... Waymos avoid many…

I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few time…

>Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do.

Oh, I disagree, this is something I observe and in fact do myself quite a lot. We all run it through our minds which route might be the quickest spending on certain factors. The difference is Waymo (or any tech) will base this on actual data (i.e., getting there quicker) vs humans who will be more emotionally driven (i.e., frustration at the driver in front, wanting to take the more scenic route, being undecided about stopping at that cafe halfway).

I'm all for self driving in highly populated areas. In a perfect world I'd like to see it integrated into all vehicles, and when entering specific areas you are told your car will enter self-driving mode. Arguably this makes the most business sense for Waymo, licence the underlying tech to manufacturers that already have capacity to produce vehicles vs compete.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#154
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autonomous vehicles could chain up or drive really close together and achieve similar space efficiency. Also, if you look at a train track. It's mostly empty space with a train passing occasionally. Very different than a well used road. And autonomous vehicles could collaborate to counter any congestion. What makes trains efficient has more to do with the cost of energy and drivers than anything else. Both of those g…

That "train passing occasionally" holds the equivalent of hundreds of cars. A random crappy light rail line will do the equivalent of 5 lanes of traffic (each direction). A serious subway more like 20. https://visual.ly/community/Infographics/transportation/solu... Even if you run cars with no distance between the bumpers you'll still need room for changing lanes, crossing and the line.

These comparisons are never quite apples-to-apples because the heavy rail line assumes only a few passengers have any luggage and that the entire line is used only for passengers, whereas the capacity rating for a road allows everyone to take large amounts of luggage and freight is always mixed in as well.

You also have to take into account all the other factors that make roads preferable, for example, that rail capacity number assumes perfect utilization. In practice railways often have lots of downtime due to overnight shutdowns, broken signals/trains and labor strikes. None of these affect the roads.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#155

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.

Taxis are a form of public transportation. After all, what's the major difference between a taxi and a bus other than capacity/driver attention?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have kids and don't like Taxis, but I'm not sure I entirely agree with your take. The idea of a humanless Taxi showing up to my house sounds way more appealing to me. I can take my time to get car seats in and kids buckled, without feeling the pressure to hurry from the human driver. I don't have to feel like my kids misbehaving are going to annoy a human driver, or get me a bad review in Uber/Lyft. I don't have to…

How do you make sure there isn’t human semen or worse on the seats on which you and your children will sit? At least with taxis driven by humans you knew that there was someone making sure that won’t happen that often, but with driverless taxis all bets are off.

Is that not just a general issue in public? Park bench? Back of the bus? There could be human semen everywhere! It's why I always insist on wrapping my kids in plastic before letting them leave the house.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#158

Side question: when Tesla finally gets FSD working, will I be able to use my Tesla to make money by using it as a taxi? Or will there be licensing issues? In other words, will I own it or not?

No need to worry about something that will never happen.

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#159

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.

I'm sorry but good public transit in the US isn't going to happen. Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. With the rise of remote work, and declining ratios of working-age populations putting increasing pressure on public finances, we're just never going to see a widespread expansion of public transit. AVs give us a path toward a world where very few people need to own their own c…

How exactly will a robotaxi ride ever reach zero marginal cost?

Re: How Waymo outlasted the competition and made robo-taxis a real business

#160

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.

Taxis are a form of public transportation. After all, what's the major difference between a taxi and a bus other than capacity/driver attention?

Major differences of Bus/Tram/Metro vs Car (robo or not) is number of passengers that can be transported per "time"/"dolar/"citi space used". And my feeling is that cars are not on the wining side here. And remember Bus/Tram/Metro can also be driverless.
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