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How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

denysdovhan.com

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Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#151
post #148
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions barely work even if you ARE the world hegemon. In Iraq they just made Saddam's position even more secure while killing a million children. Aginst Russia they backfired spectacularly because Putin had prepared better for the sanctions contingency than Europe did. I'm struggling to think of an example where they actually led to the desired outcome.

Sanctions work on the timescale of decades. They cut your GDP growth by 1-2 percent points. After 50 years you become North Korea. Let's see if Russia is a problem in 50 years :)

The sanctions cut GDP growth and pushed up inflation in the first year, but that stabilized well over a year ago.

Russian growth is now 5.5%, higher than all Western economies. It's difficult to see what sanctions would do that they haven't recovered from already.

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#152
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would you do? Install a favorable dictator? Thanks to warmongering there isn't much of a diplomatic route to peace where we still need it. Petty ulterior motives held by world 'leaders' have made it hard.

Things I would not do. Basically anything that Joe did, do the opposite. In 2014, when Joe was VP and lead person on Ukraine, I would not have refused to give lethal aid to Ukraine. And when Ukraine used our training to try to take back Crimea, I wouldn't have chastised the Ukraine government for trying to resist Putin. When Putin built up forces on Ukraine's border to restart hostilities in 2021/2022, I would not ha…

[deleted]

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they already share it, just in a messy format. No need to philosophise.

I'm not philosophising, this was literally my job in the military and worked with a number of analysts who worked on this sort of thing.

I see, but this military does share this very information.

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#154
post #151
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sanctions work on the timescale of decades. They cut your GDP growth by 1-2 percent points. After 50 years you become North Korea. Let's see if Russia is a problem in 50 years :)

The sanctions cut GDP growth and pushed up inflation in the first year, but that stabilized well over a year ago. Russian growth is now 5.5%, higher than all Western economies. It's difficult to see what sanctions would do that they haven't recovered from already.

This is just military production. It's like the growth you have when a hurricane destroys a city and you have to rebuilt it. It doesn't accumulate, it's just a waste.

BTW look up North Korean economy growth after the war :) North Korea was always the rich part. It was developing so fast after the war. And somehow now the South Korea has Samsung and Kia and Subaru, and North Korea has starvation.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Keun-Lee/publication/22...

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not philosophising, this was literally my job in the military and worked with a number of analysts who worked on this sort of thing.

I see, but this military does share this very information.

They share enough information to be useful to the civilians but not enough information to show capabilities. If everything is automated, the enemy can subscribe to the automation and work out radar capabilities, response times, and accuracy. Those are all terrible things for an enemy to use and abuse.

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk of war between sacramento and san fransisco is zero. I don’t see why we can’t make that true for the world over one day.

It's zero now. But if they ever find themselves in distinct nations then the odds will change.

wars inside a single US city can be quite common, typically over “turf”

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that would be stable. No war means losing the ability to fight which means eventually it'll be easy enough for just one small group to attack somebody much bigger but weaker. If war is solved by all attacked countries surrendering immediately so one aggressor rules the world, I'm sure factions would emerge within it who are competing for power again. Maybe a solution could come from some defensive techn…

The risk of war between sacramento and san fransisco is zero. I don’t see why we can’t make that true for the world over one day.

How about between Florida and New York? Or cities in red states vs their state government? It’s not zero anymore, especially when politicians challenging federal authority (eg Texas with border control) in obviously illegal ways.

We have numerous examples - Jan 6th, the Bundy standoffs, Oklahoma City, the Black Wall Street bombings - the risk isn’t zero.

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#158
post #48

The real question is why there isn't any official API that details the nature of the danger. You shouldn't have to scrape Telegram to figure out the type/speed of the air assault weapon, and the likely time on target. BTW, also check out Kropyva, it's like Uber for artillery strikes. Very helpful with deleting Russians.

The chief reason is decentralization.

Journalists who are updating these channels have their own sources in the Ukrainian air defense network as well as OSINTers who, for example, monitor Russian radio traffic using SDR, or even sometimes have people on the ground observing the take-off of planes in Russia and Belarus (horrifically dangerous, but there are ways to send this information somewhat safely; planes tend to be loud). If one of the journalists goes down for any reason, there will be other people writing updates. Each oblast also has their own channels where they announce attacks, some of them owned by the local administration, some by the emergency services. The air defenders themselves are a bit too busy to monitor and write this stuff; often, the best they can do is to write some short messages into a group chat or a Telegram bot before things go down, and even then, all parties involved have to balance providing an appropriate warning window with not letting the timing of this information to reveal the capabilities and locations of different kinds of Ukrainian observation stations. And this whole system has to be simple, since not every trained air defender is tech-savvy in general. Many don't know what an API even is. Many Ukrainians, too, wouldn't understand how to work with an API, but they can read the warnings in Telegram.

Also don't forget that the journalists who curate monitoring channels often also accept reports about the flight paths of missiles and drones from the general public, and while there are a couple of apps for that as well that send data from the phone's GPS and compass while the user is pointing the phone at the object, again, it's a matter of having several information channels that non-technical people can easily use. Even just writing to one of them that you just heard a cruise missile fly by, specifying your rough location, can be helpful, since radar coverage is not 100%. These messages then get relayed back to the people in the Ukrainian AA who are trying to intercept these things in real time.

Then there are the obvious security concerns, personal communications and group chat access can be vetted and it's hard to break the anonymity of Telegram channels from the outside to even be able to target the authors' devices with cyberattacks. While an API must be open to the world, and thus it immediately becomes a target.

It's a messy system but it works.

Kropyva is not available to the general public and it's very far from the capabilities of similar NATO systems, its strength lies in the fact that it's an Android app that can be used on cheap tablets, so it doesn't rely on the military-industrial complex provided hardware, which is safer and more robust, but far more expensive.

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#159
post #154
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sanctions cut GDP growth and pushed up inflation in the first year, but that stabilized well over a year ago. Russian growth is now 5.5%, higher than all Western economies. It's difficult to see what sanctions would do that they haven't recovered from already.

This is just military production. It's like the growth you have when a hurricane destroys a city and you have to rebuilt it. It doesn't accumulate, it's just a waste. BTW look up North Korean economy growth after the war :) North Korea was always the rich part. It was developing so fast after the war. And somehow now the South Korea has Samsung and Kia and Subaru, and North Korea has starvation. https://www.researchg…

North Korea was totally isolated from the world economy after the Soviet Union fell.

The only economic bloc which cut Russia off was American allies and there's nothing Russia gets from them which can't be supplied elsewhere.

Russia switched from buying German cars to buying Chinese cars and changed the logo on their McDonalds and Starbucks branches. They now have access to inferior imitation brie and french wine is 2x the cost now but they'll probably cope.

If military spending were the only thing pushing GDP up, the deficit would be showing up in throttled consumer spending. It isnt. Indeed, if the sanctions were working as intended the military wouldnt be able to produce either, but they obviously are.

Re: How Home Assistant is being used to protect from missile and drone attacks

#160
post #22

It's 2024, instead of riding our personal spaceships to habitat on Mars, we use Home Assistant software to alert us about incoming missile attacks. War is the single most unproductive activity humans can do. Sure, maybe Putin has his rationale, but spiting on a cake is never how one can secure the cake for themself, because guess what, others can also spit on it and then the cake is ruined. A greater leader knows tha…

Mobile operators have added microphones to 4G cell towers throughout Ukraine to triangulate suspicious sounds.

Starlinks provide decentralized access to the Internet both on the frontline and back in the rear. Together with batteries, solar panels, and petrol/natgas/diesel generators, they can be relied on to provide 24/7 Internet access for a while even if something happens to the ISPs. Lots of people now have them even though they are a bit expensive, and the Ukrainian government had also set up a network of locations where civilians can gather to warm up, charge their devices, and send messages over Starlink, in the worst-case scenario of a major infrastructure breakdown.

More broadly, it's harder than it seems to knock out both the entire backbone of the Ukrainian Internet network and the backbone of the mobile carriers, at once. It's easier to target the power stations. Even then, it is possible to get at least some power as long as the fossil fuel logistics are maintained. A 180W solar panel that costs around $100 can, in decent weather, provide enough power to charge a phone and power a Starlink. So power is a major problem, but it also has solutions.

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