Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage • Hacker News Board

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#151

Post by iteria » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:19 PM UTC

ryukafalz wrote: post #117

dixie_land wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one is allowing or disallowing specific groups of people, the market decides. Is Ferrari "not allow specific groups of people" (I am in that group) to buy their cars by not pricing them the same as a Honda?

The market is not deciding when municipalities are legally prohibiting denser, lower-cost housing from being built. To use your example, it's as if we were to restrict car production to mostly only Ferraris. And then if someone can't afford a Ferrari, we tell them to buy a Honda - but there aren't many of them to buy.

But there are reasons for municipalities to do that. Namely infrastructure. The city next to mine allowed uncontrolled building of housing and that city is a shitshow right now. The roads are clogged and often gridlocked. They deal with all kinds of failure modes in their utilities due to high usage. No.

My town is being more strategic about it. They allowed businesses to come in first and expanded out the robustness of the local coop's electric grid and only then did they allow appartments and they are doing them in stages to make sure the area can handle it. This is important in an area where not everyone is even hooked up to the city's water supply or has access to city sewage.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#152

Post by aclatuts » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:21 PM UTC

xyzelement wrote: post #98

rybosworld wrote: post #57

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

You seem to be coming from the perspective that people who don't live in a place should have more say over the nature of that place than those who do live there. To put it in your terms, why does it make more sense to tell existing residents "your place has to change and you can move if you don't like it" vs channel the new residents to other places where more housing is available and is available cheaper.

The NIMBYs don't only block new residents moving in. They also block existing residents from building new housing that reflects changing tastes and trends.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#153

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:21 PM UTC

xyzelement wrote: post #98

rybosworld wrote: post #57

Every single major population center that has distorted (high) housing costs relative to income, also has very strong protections for the existing home owners (NIMBY). "There are no coincidences..." The solution is terrifyingly simple: don't allow existing residents to block new housing developments. If they don't like it, they can move. This will probably never happen in the U.S., because the government no longer fu…

You seem to be coming from the perspective that people who don't live in a place should have more say over the nature of that place than those who do live there. To put it in your terms, why does it make more sense to tell existing residents "your place has to change and you can move if you don't like it" vs channel the new residents to other places where more housing is available and is available cheaper.

[deleted]

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#154

Post by willcipriano » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:21 PM UTC

2024throwaway wrote: post #91

willcipriano wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dish washer jobs pays less than minimum wage under the table, beacuse the government flew desperate people from the poorest part of the planet to town to compete with the existing dishwashers.

> beacuse the government flew desperate people from the poorest part of the planet to town to compete with the existing dishwashers. Gonna need some sources on this one.

From just last week:

> The Center for Immigration Studies found last year from January 2023 to December 2023, at least 320,000 illegal immigrants were allowed to fly into the U.S. from their home country through a controversial program of the Biden administration using the Customs and Border Patrol app, the CBP One app that was created to let migrants apply for parole into the US.

> The Parole program allows for two-year periods of legal status during which adults are eligible for work authorization.

https://nbcmontana.com/news/nation-world/biden-admin-flew-hu...

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#155

Post by TylerE » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:24 PM UTC

willcipriano wrote: post #154

2024throwaway wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> beacuse the government flew desperate people from the poorest part of the planet to town to compete with the existing dishwashers. Gonna need some sources on this one.

From just last week: > The Center for Immigration Studies found last year from January 2023 to December 2023, at least 320,000 illegal immigrants were allowed to fly into the U.S. from their home country through a controversial program of the Biden administration using the Customs and Border Patrol app, the CBP One app that was created to let migrants apply for parole into the US. > The Parole program allows for two-…

If they're coming in under a government program with proper paperwork, they aren't illegals.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#156

Post by throwitaway222 » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:24 PM UTC

TylerE wrote: post #121

throwitaway222 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed the thread - we're making it nearly impossible for someone to own a rental, it would flood the market with purchasable homes - cratering home prices potentially making the medium drop from $400k to $100k (at least for a certain class of homes), create programs for homeless people to get loans - some kind of step-up, combined with a job, and the homeless would suddenly be home owners and become peop…

$100k might as well be $100m to 99% of homeless people. Do you think they’re going to qualify for a loan at a non-usurious rate? In case, if the market value drops, well, rich people will just buy them. If you’re currently in a “$300k” home and can buy a “$400k” home for $100k… like how do any of these numbers make any sort of sense?

What is a rich person that already has a home going to do with a $100k house that costs another $100k for them each year?

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#157

Post by whartung » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:25 PM UTC

ejb999 wrote: post #96

dubcanada wrote: post #32

If there is one industry that is the most resistant to change, it's the construction industry. There are still people who have been roofing for 50 years and refuse to change a single thing they do and learned 50 years ago. Saying a bunch of glulam will solve the issue is just incorrect. Wood is fantastic material. But using half a forest to build a 2000sqft house is certainly not the direction we should be going, we…

Honestly, if I had to choose between buying a house built 50 years ago, or one today - I personally would take the older one. Nothing scares me more (relative to owning a house) than buying a brand new one. If it has been around for fifty years, it has been tested - may have some things wrong with them, but you usually know what you are dealing with and usually the skill was better and materials better. Heck, my pare…

Well we recently upgraded to a new build, selling off our 50 year old house. We had to relocated to a different area, because the only houses in our area were...50 year old houses. And swapping from one 50 year old house to another one didn't make a lot of sense to us.

Mind, we had done remodeling, new kitchen, new baths, new roof, new windows, new HVAC, insulation, "more sound proof" dry wall, structural engineering changes (original owners underspec'd a new addition, and we had to get that fixed), relined the sewer. The two last things on our list were redoing the electrical panel, and landscaping.

So, it had some modern elements, but at its core it was a 50 year old house.

When we had the work done, the contractor mentioned how the house was well built. "Good bones" as he said.

Our new house is VASTLY more efficient. The foundation is 50-100% thicker than our old house (which had other issues). We have that lined plywood in the attic (one side has some material for efficiency), lots more insulation. The only "exotic" thing in there, IMHO, is the plumbing, as its the clear plastic tubing style plumbing (there's a trade name for it that escapes me), vs copper. No idea how long that will last, our old house was already re-piped with copper when we bought it (can you say "slab leak"?). But I'm assuming that the new plumbing is not simply cheaper (copper, oh my) but actually "better" for more values of "better" than not.

I saw the house go up, I got to learn house geek stuff, and this is a solid house. We already have stucco cracks, which is not surprising -- I've had 4 felt quakes so far this year, and it's only March. 3+, one was at least 4. Been rocking and rolling for some reason this year, this activity is unusual, and, hopefully, not foretelling. But the house is solid. California has codes for a reason. We use stick framing for a reason, particularly in Southern California.

I wish we didn't have to leave the area we were in, but this house is so far so good and appears very well built, more so than our older house was.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#158

Post by willcipriano » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:28 PM UTC

TylerE wrote: post #155

willcipriano wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From just last week: > The Center for Immigration Studies found last year from January 2023 to December 2023, at least 320,000 illegal immigrants were allowed to fly into the U.S. from their home country through a controversial program of the Biden administration using the Customs and Border Patrol app, the CBP One app that was created to let migrants apply for parole into the US. > The Parole program allows for two-…

If they're coming in under a government program with proper paperwork, they aren't illegals.

I agree. It's government policy at this point to bring in as many people as possible for some reason. My guess is to drive down wages, some others have guessed that it's due to a belief that global conflict is rising and the native population is unwilling to fight.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#159

Post by littlestymaar » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:28 PM UTC

doctorpangloss wrote: post #141

tnel77 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A major issue with housing is that it is a primary driver of wealth for many Americans. Obviously, this comes at the expense of our fellow Americans who do not own a home. I was able to buy shortly out of college (1% down loan) so rising home prices don’t impact me as much since my home has also gone up in value. I was able to sell the first house and roll that equity into the next house. As long as it’s the main sto…

Well but aren’t you giving a great example of how that wealth is illusory? The purpose of this comment is to make this conversation interesting instead of rehashing BS about NIMBYs. Don’t get me wrong, measuring billionaires’ wealth by multiplying stock price and stock count is flawed too, for a different reason. But both your wealth and that wealth are really measuring “taxable wealth in the marginal transaction cas…

> Well but aren’t you giving a great example of how that wealth is illusory?

It is mostly, since your purchasing power doesn't increase because all house prices rise.

But: people don't live forever, and when your home-owning parents die, you now have two homes instead of one, and you'll get much more than if housing price was half the price. Same when your in-laws die too.

Obviously this is entirely unsustainable and is a huge driver for the political despair that is spreading in Western countries.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#160

Post by PheonixPharts » Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 6:29 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #139

tnel77 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A major issue with housing is that it is a primary driver of wealth for many Americans. Obviously, this comes at the expense of our fellow Americans who do not own a home. I was able to buy shortly out of college (1% down loan) so rising home prices don’t impact me as much since my home has also gone up in value. I was able to sell the first house and roll that equity into the next house. As long as it’s the main sto…

Upzoning is a win-win for existing homeowners. Land doesn't get expropriated to build multifamily; it's purchased. Multifamily is a more efficient use of a lot than SFH, so it's purchased at a premium. NIMBYs worry that the mere existence of nearby multifamily will decrease their home value. In rare and unsympathetic cases (places like Winnetka in Illinois) that may be true. But in the bedroom neighborhoods of big ci…

> NIMBYs worry that the mere existence of nearby multifamily will decrease their home value. In rare and unsympathetic cases ... that may be true.

It's not rare. I've known multiple people, myself included, who have decided not to make an offer on a single family home because it neighbors a gross apartment building.

The vast majority of home buyers want single family homes. I don't know where HN obsession with vertical housing comes from, maybe because the majority are young and still live in apartments, but this isn't reflective of most home buyers

The only adults I know who will even consider purchasing a condo are single with no pets and no intention of having a family. Even among most childless couples, once they live in a single family home they would never go back.