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95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

danluu.com

151–160 of 191 posts

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#151

I think the way this is phrased is weird. It should probably be rephrased as "becoming 95% percentile at a thing is not that hard". Which I might agree with. Becoming good at a lot of tasks and skills really just comes down to finding the right approach to training and then doing that training. The last 5% is much harder because that's generally filled with truly talented people that also know how to train and are di…

I think it was Adam Savage who put it this way (talking about the importance of talent): Getting 90% of the way to mastery of a thing is just a matter of practice. Talent is what gets you that last 10%.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#152
This is why I honestly don't care about a lot of elitism in things like schools, internships, places of work, etc. Because if anyone has the base knowledge you can turn them into a top 1%er really fast and easily. But what a lot of people don't understand, is that everyone needs training. The good argument against this is that those with elite credentials have gotten training through their elite status[0] (momentum is a powerful force) but I don't find this particularly convincing because it's implying that you don't need to train people. People should always be trained. I'm not sure why we often don't internalize this. Even top athletes are constantly training, arguably that's their entire job and weirdly enough you don't even need to have the trainer be a top athlete (just sufficient knowledge of the domain and more about skills in communication and deconstructing problems). Realistically people will just settle into wherever they've found some level of success because, like the article says, they're not looking for feedback or if they are, it's not straightforward or easy to come by.

Are we coders/scientists/engineers/etc properly training? Do we have sufficient means? Are code reviews actually training exercises combined with quality control or are they an adversarial game where jobs need to be justified to those using poor metrics for said justification? (do you intentionally put in easy mistakes so review has something to point to but you have something easy to fix but would get something hard to fix if you submitted better code in the first place?)

[0] I'll put it this way, when you look at top performers in a field (let's say ML for example, because it's hip) you'll typically find a long chain of elite statuses (plenty of exceptions, but they don't discredit the underlying premise here). Take for example the well known Andrej Karpathy. Before he was at OpenAI he was the Sr Director at Tesla, and before that OpenAI, and before that Standford, then University of British Columbia, and then University of Toronto (where he took classes and attended study sessions by Hinton). The point here is not to say he didn't work hard (there's no doubt of that) or isn't exceptionally skilled (entire premise is based on assuming this), but that there's compounding opportunities to catapult one's self to the top skill level.

The truth of the matter is going into college the vast majority of people are dumb as shit and the differential in someone at a low tier school and a high tier school isn't that huge (we can even extend the argument further backwards). 4 years is not a lot of time, nor is the 8-12 for PhD (from high school). The skills gap does widen between these groups, but not nearly as much as they do between those leveraging their opportunities or even just those with better opportunities. There's a saying I like: "The harder you work, the luckier you get." The two are deeply intertwined and working hard you have the capacity to take advantage of more opportunities.

The three questions here are: 1) how many additional Kaparthy level people did we miss out on due to them not having adequate opportunities? 2) Is there a cost effective solution to increase these numbers? Dramatically? 3) At which point (for which skills) is there no longer a sufficiently effective strategy that's also cost effective. (strategy selection is most certainly time and domain dependent) There's actually decent evidence that you can take low quality high school students and they will be successful at elite schools, especially after you control for dropouts due to higher rates of family issues. (This can be captured in many ways and is nuanced so it's actually deceptively hard). In high likelihood you could randomize Kindergartners into the elite path and non-elite path and find this effective but we're probably only going to be able to get natural experiments. Is this true for High School? College? Grad School? (If you think in any way I'm undermining Karpathy's success or talent, you've most certainly misread and/or I've most certainly greatly miscommunication and this line should be a verification of the former. Karpathy is without a doubt, a fucking beast)

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#153

The argument seems like a cheat, because it rules out people who don't participate, but doesn't limit itself to people who practice regularly. For video games, an analogy could be limiting to people who bought the game on steam, but not limiting to people who ever installed and played it. Or maybe a better analogy is website users, limiting to people who visited, but still including all the people who immediately bou…

> For video games, an analogy could be limiting to people who bought the game on steam, but not limiting to people who ever installed and played it.

I think he is accounting for that. Especially since the thesis has a recursive nature to it. In fact, he does even step down one level. I don't think a person with 1200 hrs is considered a non-participant.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#154
post #64

This is the kind of claim that needs actual evidence, otherwise it's just a dumb feel-good sentiment about how you _could_ be 2000 ELO on lichess if you cared. I tend to agree that with enough time and _appropriate_ training anyone can become quite competent at anything, but this is a significantly different claim than thinking you can be in the 95th percentile of persons who are engaged in the activity. It becomes e…

> how you _could_ be 2000 ELO on lichess if you cared. I would argue that being top 2000 ELO is _way_ higher than top 5% of chess players. Most chess players have _never played a competitive game_

Rapid rating 95th percentile is 2050 (info is available on lichess)

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what the 352 is supposed to be. strengthlevel.com claims a 352 lb bench is ~95th percentile for a 180 lb male, but I've never seen anyone in a gym that can bench anywhere near that. IME even a 225 lb squat feels like 95th percentile. I don't think I've ever seen someone else do a 100 lb shoulder press (~20th percentile on SL). Usually I see something like 75 lb (doing fixed barbells), and once I saw 95 l…

This thread is truly bizarre. A 352 pound bench at 180 pounds is bordering on being an elite lift. I would wager that it's unattainable for most guys, even if they worked at it and did everything right (in terms of training, nutrition, etc). Success in athletics/strength-based activities is, in large part, determined by genetics. I'm sure there are domains where being in the 95th percentile just takes "some work." If…

Sorry I was originally quoting a deadlift number. There’s a typo in the post.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#156
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can squat 315, DL 425, bench about 230. Done 100-115 strict overhead press. I train Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Plenty of guys stronger than me that I train with. I also go to a gym once in a while. I am solidly middle of the pack, especially considering I weigh 200 lbs. maybe if you are at planet fitness or something. Otherwise these numbers only take a bit of dedicated work to achieve. You would not look at me and think…

> Otherwise these numbers only take a bit of dedicated work to achieve I think you may be underselling that a bit. I got to something like 370-80lb DL while weighing 185 some years ago, and it took nearly 3 years of dedicated work, eating tons of boring chicken, and a lot of lifestyle changes. It was pretty hard work and a of hours in total. I still lift weights, but don't have the focus and dedication to maintain th…

My numbers were similar to yours, but I agree with OP that it wasn’t really “difficult”. Sure, you have to turn up to the gym regularly and put in the hours, but there’s no real skill or practice involved. It’s not like tennis/judo/your_sport where you actually have to focus to get good.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#157

Are there any good platforms out there that people would recommend where you can have your code reviewed? Either paid for or for free. As this article points out, feedback is an essential part of learning, and open source projects would be a great opportunity to get feedback on something you have sole agency over as opposed to many workplace projects where it's harder to receive feedback for your individual decisions…

University?

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#158

When I was younger, I used to enjoy competition and climbing leaderboards. Now, parenting always comes first. Reaching the top 5% is possible for most people with sustained effort. Many participants aren't dedicated to reaching the top of the leaderboard.

I aim to be a 95th percentile parent. It's not as hard as you'd think

How can you tell? Parenting isn’t exactly quantifiable.

Re: 95%-ile isn't that good (2020)

#160

> Some reasons we might expect this to happen are: 1. People don't want to win or don't care about winning 2. People understand their mistakes but haven't put in enough time to fix them 3. People are untalented 4. People don't understand how to spot their mistakes and fix them —— There is another very common reason. It is often emotionally difficult to acknowledge that you’re making simple mistakes that could be fixe…

I was going to add "People want to be winners without trying because people who win without trying are cool, and tryhards are not cool."

How about I just want to win but I don’t want it enough to grind hard because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze in many competitive things with no rewards for winning except a small rush
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