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Starship’s second flight test

spacex.com

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Re: Starship’s second flight test

#151

Post by martin8412 »

maxlin wrote: post #112
IshKebab wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why you can't just accept that he makes crazy promises that are sometimes total nonsense. Sometimes his crazy promises do mostly pan out. But he's clearly massively over-promised in driverless cars. I'm really surprised there hasn't been a class action lawsuit from all the Tesla owners who were essentially tricked into paying $5k for a thing that can never exist.

Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replac…

Tesla is nowhere near the leader. The problem is hard, who could possibly have known? Oh right, any person with a bit of knowledge of how computers work and drive a car. Tesla can't make it reliably work in the car-centric USA. I'd love to see it perform in a busy Indian city or even just any old European city.

Tesla cars do not last long, and the battery costs a fortune to replace when it dies or gets damaged out of warranty.

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#152

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

GeekyBear wrote: post #132
enneff wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would have to happen to earth to make it less viable a place to live than mars? An asteroid rendering earth’s surface uninhabitable? Even that wouldn’t be enough - there’s still so much more on earth to sustain human life than any planet in our solar system. Apart from proof of concept I just don’t see any practical reason to colonise mars.

> What would have to happen to earth to make it less viable a place to live than mars? Another global airborne pandemic, but this time with a much higher fatality rate?

And how wouldn't that magically move to mars, given that it had to spread slowly, with relatively long incubation time, because otherwise it would kill its hosts too fast?

I mean, isn't the whole vision that rather comfortable and fast ride, like in an airliner, but the duration of a cruise? Without all that quarantine shit?

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#153

Post by maxlin »

martin8412 wrote: post #149
maxlin wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah well it will before 10 years and increases the value of even current cars

It will not.

Only if the world ends it won't. At that point Tesla will have licensed it to a ton of other manufacturers, possibly even reached a certified standard like they did with NACS so competition will be even more behind.

Your kind of thinking would say that no one will ever need more than 840k of memory or that rifling will never take off

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#154

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

maxlin wrote: post #104
enneff wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would have to happen to earth to make it less viable a place to live than mars? An asteroid rendering earth’s surface uninhabitable? Even that wouldn’t be enough - there’s still so much more on earth to sustain human life than any planet in our solar system. Apart from proof of concept I just don’t see any practical reason to colonise mars.

I don't get your point. Having a self-sustaining colony on Mars ready when suddenly the brother of the Chicxulub impactor appears on the radar and will hit in less time than it would require to create massive underground cave systems utilizing geothermal power would take to build, will literally save the species. And that is just one apocalypse variant. Nuclear holocaust. Antimatter bombs. Possibly even a massive gam…

Which gamma ray burst would be so focussed that it would hit earth, but not mars?

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#155

Post by maxlin »

martin8412 wrote: post #151
maxlin wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replac…

Tesla is nowhere near the leader. The problem is hard, who could possibly have known? Oh right, any person with a bit of knowledge of how computers work and drive a car. Tesla can't make it reliably work in the car-centric USA. I'd love to see it perform in a busy Indian city or even just any old European city. Tesla cars do not last long, and the battery costs a fortune to replace when it dies or gets damaged out of…

Lol what. It's like you'd be trying to convince everyone Bing has been the leading search engine for the last 10 years. You don't even mention who would be ahead. Cruise, having to intervene every 5 minutes (literally, look it up) and basing on unscalable HD maps?

Get real man. Tesla has even custom HARDWARE for their NN's even, designed by the chip designer that has created some of the greatest designs BOTH at Intel and AMD.

And Tesla's battery lasts better than others. I remember seeing incredible endurance even for the first Model S batteries after like 10 years of driving. You buy a Tesla now or 5 years ago, it will likely last longer than any other car, all while it will receive SW updates to function as a Robotaxi when the time comes.

You're funnily arguing the exact polar opposite of where Tesla is strong.

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#156

Post by LargoLasskhyfv »

modeless wrote: post #124
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any hints on how this is going to change civilisation, for non-space nerds?

IMO the biggest impact for normal people is that Starlink is going to get a whole lot better. Truly worldwide satellite broadband for unmodified cell phones. Faster speeds, lower latency (lower than fiber for intercontinental traffic), smaller/cheaper antennas, better reliability especially with limited view of the sky, and more support for areas of higher population density. More esoteric: Commercial space stations.…

I'm usually seeing 50ms rtt from Hamburg, Germany to Denver, CO, a few more to my 'cabin in the woods' near there, and vice versa. Via fiber. It depends on the technology and peerings the involved ISPs use, and how overbooked they are, or not.

I'm not seeing how starlink will change that in a big way. Except where there is no fiber at all, or no choice of good ISPs. And as backup. That's convenient, of course.

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#157

Post by maxlin »

IshKebab wrote: post #150
maxlin wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes he has over-promised, but Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons. It seems more like the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally. However, cars last long and Tesla's batteries last as long as any, I remember seeing some very promising numbers from very old Model S's remaining battery capabilities, and of course the batteries can be replac…

> the problem itself is turning out to just be harder to cover properly than foreseen originally Than foreseen by Tesla . Everyone else knew they couldn't possibly achieve what Musk was claiming. > Tesla also has the most promising tech on this for many reasons After Waymo maybe. > considering even the NN chip hardware can be semi-easily upgraded if really needed Haha there's no way 20 year old cars (minimum; by the…

You are dumbfoundingly incorrect. Tesla is just so much ahead everyone else it is a bit ridiculous. I wouldn't wonder if many have already given up and are just waiting for Tesla to front the R&D then willing to license their tech. No one else has even close to Teslas NN chips, Dojo, custom simulators, the FLEET, willing free QA people, endless data sources as all cars have the hardware ... You also have no idea how time works throwing around something like 20 years. In AI age that just leads me to believe you are at least 10 years late in your thinking. 20 year guess for software is something no one can make.

You do not even understand what field Tesla operates in if you're comparing it to Waymo. Waymo operates on HD maps and remote human operators who can take over every 5 minutes if needed. Those cars are not real "cars", you can't own them, they can't drive outside the city. They compete with electric scooters like Tier, Bolt, Lime, not Tesla. They have zero ability to grow, it's like comparing a hardcoded nature language engine to ChatGPT.

(Also note that the gain in value Tesla has gotten after Autonomy Day hasn't actually even been lost. Long-term investors aren't gonna miss this one)

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#158

Post by cma »

maxlin wrote: post #59
cma wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon and Shotwell in 2018 said that by 2028 it will have operating passenger service for between a business class ticket and coach ticket price. They claimed it again around 2020 or 2021. Competitive pricing with air travel. And he said that the Semi will be competitive with rail and could already operate in follow the leader convoy mode back in 2017: they were just waiting on regulators to give the ok! Never seen te…

This doesn't in any way even contest the original point. Timeline maybe, but we all know Elon(r) Valve(r) time, it's the kind of time we all hope would move faster but most don't rip their game pants out of impatience. About the Semi, there's zero reason to believe anything is being shelved. The truck itself is ready and being tested in practice by Pepsico and Tesla itself. Jay Leno teste drove it and was impressed.…

> About the Semi, there's zero reason to believe anything is being shelved. The truck itself is ready and being tested in practice by Pepsico and Tesla itself. Jay Leno teste drove it and was impressed.

I didn't say they couldn't build the Semi; he said it could already do automated convoy follower driving in 2017. Still nowhere to be seen.

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#159

Post by 93po »

jiggawatts wrote: post #66
maxlin wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet the chance would be low even if Starship somehow "flew" on the surface of the water for the whole boost period. And even then it should be ridiculously easy to determine it is more beneficial for humanity to revolutionize mass/cost to orbit even if one or a few animals get hurt during many years of operation. If the US government truly cared this crazy much about sharks and whales we would have sent a carrier b…

Navy submarines regularly deafen all sorts of animals with their sonars and are implicated in whales beaching themselves to escape the noise. But let’s make Elon Musk put headphones on seals (plural) because it’s funny to make the billionaire jump through hoops. If I was in Musk’s position I would simply threaten to pack up everything and take all Starship development over to China. I bet a lot of the “essential” pap…

He legally wouldn’t be allowed to and would go to prison for the rest of his life if he did. He would also not be able to use the vast majority of his team because they’d also personally risk prison and also losing security clearance which means their careers are over in the US.

Re: Starship’s second flight test

#160

Post by 93po »

new_user_final wrote: post #41
maxlin wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm more interested in what that will make the rocket do, like move, though.

I am waiting to see the reaction of the different groups of human.

I believe some people will react to 11 million pounds going three times the speed of sound, but I also believe more people react to someone who says dumb stuff on twitter
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