Earlier quoted context omitted.
Science fiction is great and all, but I'd rate this probability more like the inverse of stupid large numbers brought to us by Knuth's up-arrow notation.
Could be! Your estimate is as valid as mine. I suppose that to approach a topic like this, we can reason in the classical-logic manner of the ancient Greeks and others who sought to understand their universe without yet having the instruments to make necessary observations. What I mean is, without our civilization having seen evidence either way yet, the question of what is a good prior probability is only able to be…
Sorry, I can't help but perceive this as intellectual cowardice. "There has to be something that'll make our collective life not as finite and pointless as the evidence we have suggests!".