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Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

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Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#151

Everyone in this thread needs to understand that particularly for materials science, and particularly when there is bad methodology documentation, it is really, really normal for early replication attempts to fail. What works in one lab will often need to be adjusted to work in another, with different equipment, altitude, humidity, all sorts of stuff. Making it even worse, apparently the original team can't even get…

This comment intrigued me, so I pulled together some information. The first paper submitted is titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor." It lists three authors: Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young-Wan Kwon. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 07:51:19 UTC. [1] The second paper submitted is titled "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric…

Yeah, this in-fighting thing has been proposed before as credibility-supporting. Here's an earlier tweet with some background on the palaver, account worth following on it all:

https://twitter.com/8teAPi/status/1684385895565365248

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We also don't have a culture of replication. Basically all of the post docs I worked with in the lab lamented how hard it can be to replicate reported syntheses in chemistry wet labs. Everything from humidity and altitude to undocumented "magic tricks" (eg baking something in an oven under vaccuum for a week to get.rid.of.all.the.water.) I heard anecdotes that experiments were sometimes literally only reproducible in…

In that light, industrial processes seem even more impressive. The super power of modern technology is the ability to perform precise steps on a massive scale and basically forever. Obviously it takes a lot of effort to keep the machinery running but still, the mere fact that it's running in the first place blows your mind if you think about it. Modern Machinery multiplies the impact on the world of any human who ope…

Research experimentation is like doing a gymnastics performance, you're trying to prove the limits of what can be done.

Industry is all about doing it cheap, consistently and at scale. So by comparison you don't want any flourish or special conditions that take lots of practice and super skilled operators.

The magic of industrial engineering is figuring out how to go from research to scale. But the flipside is all the crazy stuff that is achievable at the frontier that never gets productionised

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#154

Everyone in this thread needs to understand that particularly for materials science, and particularly when there is bad methodology documentation, it is really, really normal for early replication attempts to fail. What works in one lab will often need to be adjusted to work in another, with different equipment, altitude, humidity, all sorts of stuff. Making it even worse, apparently the original team can't even get…

This is a good summary: https://youtu.be/RjzL9cS3VW8?t=32

TLDW it seems very unlikely that they have what they claim

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#155

Everyone in this thread needs to understand that particularly for materials science, and particularly when there is bad methodology documentation, it is really, really normal for early replication attempts to fail. What works in one lab will often need to be adjusted to work in another, with different equipment, altitude, humidity, all sorts of stuff. Making it even worse, apparently the original team can't even get…

This comment intrigued me, so I pulled together some information. The first paper submitted is titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor." It lists three authors: Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young-Wan Kwon. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 07:51:19 UTC. [1] The second paper submitted is titled "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric…

Rushing out the second paper was a mistake and not a good look for the group. It would have been enough to force the retraction of Kwon's paper, and even without a retraction it's very unlikely it would have counted for anything with such weak data.

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#156
post #9

Maybe not yet the final nail in the coffin but I would no longer bet much on a successful replication. Which leaves me wondering how we got the initial papers. Does fraud make any sense, how could you possibly benefit from something like this? And if I would think that I might have produced a room temperature superconductor due to experimental errors, I would double and tripple check what I did. Assuming there is tim…

The betting market is of the opposite opinion. It went from 27% chance of replication (by 2025) to 47% since yesterday.

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-...

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#157
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it’s fraud, what’s the end game?

There's also the possibility that the original team is deceiving themselves. By all appearances, they're deeply committed to this result (that could be an act, but that's not the sense I'm getting). But those biases could creep into the analysis of the material: in this particular field, a lot of things are witchcraft (witchcraft that occasionally works). So take a novel material with some interesting properties and…

Yeah, self-deception is a distinct possibility, and it would certainly not be the first time for something like that to happen.

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#158
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment intrigued me, so I pulled together some information. The first paper submitted is titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor." It lists three authors: Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young-Wan Kwon. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 07:51:19 UTC. [1] The second paper submitted is titled "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric…

Rushing out the second paper was a mistake and not a good look for the group. It would have been enough to force the retraction of Kwon's paper, and even without a retraction it's very unlikely it would have counted for anything with such weak data.

idk if it turns out this material is a room temperature superconductor, the rushed second paper will have been the right thing to do. Science happening in real time is gonna be messy

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment intrigued me, so I pulled together some information. The first paper submitted is titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor." It lists three authors: Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young-Wan Kwon. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 07:51:19 UTC. [1] The second paper submitted is titled "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric…

The second paper's "semiconductor" claim is no less than the first.

In general I'd agree with you, but in this case I think the second group very likely didn't reproduce the first group's material. The measured electrical properties of the two groups aren't even close to each other. I think that strongly suggests the two groups were measuring different materials, and that the structure of the second group's material differed in some way. A more convincing failed replication would find mostly similar electrical properties and reproduce the levitation that the first group found, but explain it with a phenomenon other than superconductors

Re: Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt

#160
post #121

Everyone in this thread needs to understand that particularly for materials science, and particularly when there is bad methodology documentation, it is really, really normal for early replication attempts to fail. What works in one lab will often need to be adjusted to work in another, with different equipment, altitude, humidity, all sorts of stuff. Making it even worse, apparently the original team can't even get…

If research moves more to arxiv + discussion forums rather than paid journals, sharing research results earlier seems like a good thing, not bad. If they didn't publish early, when they published maybe things would be clearer for other researchers. But by publishing earlier other people have the choice to engage with it or wait for later. Seems like many people decided to not wait, so it seems like it was a good choi…

I think this is the best direction for science generally: publish everything open and early.

It might be naive, but I would love an environment where everyone self published or arxiv papers/reviews/datasets/models. Then journals could publish the best papers/review preprints.

I imagine a world where journals beg researchers for the rights to publish their paper after seeing an excellent preprint. Or a journal finds an interesting comment on PubPeer and pays for the author to expand it into a more detailed review.

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