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San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

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Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#151

Post by bluefishinit »

forgetfulness wrote: post #101
bluefishinit wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have, and to an instance they come from impoverished and damaged home lives. Often their parents were in prison or extremely poor. People living with dignity will lower crime and make them less antagonistic to those who aren't suffering often generational damage.

Right, but the newer generations that wouldn't be the subject of this under social programs will come under the predation and oppression of those who took on the path of violence if you don't offer them protection; you can't just picture this as poor people stealing luxury goods from tech bros, there's a reason why people who are subject to these things are often friendly to tough-on-crime policies.

I disagree, it was tough-on-crime policies, specifically the war on drugs and discriminatory policing that caused the problems we have today. Continuing these policies will only compound the issues.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#152

Post by tbrockman »

Off-topic, but these kind of conversations based on anec-data pop up here and in my social circles quite a bit, but it seems like they're often pretty sparse as far as the quantitative side of things are concerned.

Does anyone know what the actual data suggests here? Are there any projects that make this data more discoverable and consumable for regular people, so that we can all have more well-informed discussions (assuming the data is as unbiased as possible) about what the real problems are, how bad they've gotten, and how bad they are relative to other things?

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#153

Post by antisthenes »

tbrockman wrote: post #152

Off-topic, but these kind of conversations based on anec-data pop up here and in my social circles quite a bit, but it seems like they're often pretty sparse as far as the quantitative side of things are concerned. Does anyone know what the actual data suggests here? Are there any projects that make this data more discoverable and consumable for regular people, so that we can all have more well-informed discussions (…

For quantitative data, I think we should be looking at store closures.

How many stores closed in a city in a given time period? Is it more or less than other comparable cities? You have to normalize this data by population.

I think individual thefts are just that - anecdata, which sways one way or another too far in any given time period. But something like stores/pharmacies, where systematic theft can occur would be a better indicator

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#154

Post by ajmurmann »

sylens wrote: post #69
DoreenMichele wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of city residents need to come to terms with the fact that some of these progressive criminal justice reforms may need to be adjusted a bit, given that we now have years of evidence of their effects. And/or: We need to make affordable housing available, make a car-optional lifestyle more viable, etc. "The beatings shall continue until morale improves" isn't an effective approach to anything, especially since if…

Notice I am not advocating for a complete reversal of these reform-based approaches - I said they need to be adjusted a bit. It is unlikely anything is done 100% correctly on the first attempt, and we are seeing firsthand that there needs to be some further disincentive for so brazenly committing crimes of theft in these areas

It's so weird to me how Oregon, for example, tried to adopt Portugals policies on drugs, but seemingly stopped reading at "legalize" and didn't implement anything like mandatory rehab if it's found you need it.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#155

Post by ajmurmann »

JamesBarney wrote: post #35
sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

> as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity This is a big assumption. Do you have anything that backs this up? I'd be incredibly surprised if the FED jacked up interest rates, the Federal government cut expenditures or increased taxes to curb inflation we'd see a large fall in crime.

I'd also like to see some stats on drug abuse and how that relates to crime and homelessness. It anecdotally seems that here in Portland most problematic homeless and criminals are addicted to meth or fentanyl. I know the war on drugs was a disaster and am a great fan of Portugal's approach, but fentanyl and the new meth seem to be a new kind of problem.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#156

Post by darth_avocado »

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

> Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft.

This I would say is an outreach. Sure some petty theft is related to high cost of living, but a lot of crime in San Francisco is less driven by necessity and more by opportunity. Organized crime is leveraging liberal policies to make money with no consequences. And outside of organized crime, there are just some very twisted individuals who commit crime repeatedly for no reason.

1. Kids arrested for 35 robberies: https://abc7news.com/amp/oakland-robberies-children-arrested...

2. Organized retail theft targeting Apple: https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2023/02/09/eight-charged-with-f...

3. Statewide retail theft ring: https://abc7news.com/amp/organized-retail-theft-california-r...

4. Multi state retail theft ring: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/02/09/california-takes-down-coor...

5. Another retail theft ring: https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Bay-Area-retail-th...

6. Car theft rings: https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/01/26/inside-a-multi-millio...

7. Organized crime for luxury item thefts: https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/organized-crime-rings-...

There’s many more but you get the idea.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#157

Post by momirlan »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #54
forgetfulness wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be stopping people from taking the aid and stealing the scooters anyway? You can only rely so much on the inherent goodness of humans. Add organized crime into the mix and you run into the problem that might makes right for plenty of people, specially if there's easy money and "respect" involved.

What is driving people to steal the scooters if not the need to pay for food and housing?

let me quote from a pickpocket i met in Barcelona: "i sleep all day and at night i go out to steal. by morning i have a big stash of cash, life is good". he was not motivated by hunger or poverty, just having a good time, and what he perceived as a good life

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#158

Post by ajmurmann »

MaxfordAndSons wrote: post #144
sylens wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is fair - I've only seen other cities firsthand since the pandemic, not SF.

The Tenderloin in SF was a worst in class skid row area pre-pandemic; post-pandemic it is a full blown open air drug market zone, ala Hamsterdam from The Wire.

Hamsterdam in the Wire seemed kinda organized and civil

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#159

Post by UncleOxidant »

sylens wrote: post #29

You're seeing this everywhere. Chicago, Philadelphia, and so on - although the problem may be worse in San Francisco. Cities are struggling in the post-pandemic era as the rising cost of living due to inflation in food and other essentials has driven more criminal activity, mostly around theft. This is happening at the same time where many cities are also trying more progressive, reform-based approaches to policing a…

Definitely have been seeing this in Portland for a while now. The interesting effect is that it seems to be moving people who were quite progressive in the "time to get tough on crime" direction, ie. to the right. That's natural, I suppose, what I find interesting is the effect it's starting to have on local politics. I think we could see some rather large swings to the right at least in terms of policing and getting a DA that's going to actually prosecute people who commit property crimes.

Portland was the poster-child for giving people 2nd and 3rd chances and "We just need to empathize with their situation." Well, people are done with empathizing with other people essentially camping in their front yard, using drugs, and stealing everything that isn't nailed down.

Re: San Francisco: An Elitist Bubble Ignoring a Crime Epidemic?

#160

Post by MaxfordAndSons »

ajmurmann wrote: post #158
MaxfordAndSons wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Tenderloin in SF was a worst in class skid row area pre-pandemic; post-pandemic it is a full blown open air drug market zone, ala Hamsterdam from The Wire.

Hamsterdam in the Wire seemed kinda organized and civil

Yea that's true, it's not a great comparison. I just meant in the sense that it's a de-facto open air drug market/use zone.
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