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Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

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Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#151

Post by saurik »

amitport wrote: post #139
depr wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think ChatGPT is good evidence of this. What evidence do we have that this isn't how intelligence works? People don't need the gigantic amount of input data that ChatGPT needs to learn. However I'm not sure what exactly "this" is you and GP are referring to, and it may be possible to improve existing ideas so that it works with less input data.

"People don't need the gigantic amount of input data that ChatGPT needs to learn" Sure they do. Humans rely on tons of audio and video before they can even read (or walk).

But I have learned to program and do complex math having read and analyzed ridiculously less source material on those subjects (and in fact in the case of programming having seen very little code as I mostly only had reference manuals at the time).

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#152

Post by 23B1 »

ml-anon wrote: post #144
kranke155 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hallucinations are an indication that something is missing, surely? Does chatGPT need a way to verify reality for itself to become truly intelligent ?

Calling them "hallucinations" is a shoddy piece of terminology by the community which anthropomorphises them.

What would you recommend calling them? Genuinely curious.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#154

Post by Xcelerate »

paxys wrote: post #16

I predict that the fight will be more about defining intelligence than inventing it. No one knows what AGI is. There isn't going to be some switch that flips to take us from AI to AGI. These tools we have today will just keep getting incrementally better, and some new ones will pop up, and at some point we'll have to stop and say "yeah, this is good enough to qualify". And everyone will have their own opinion on what…

> I predict that the fight will be more about defining intelligence than inventing it.

I think the internet has given a pretty clear definition on what intelligence is: it’s whatever AI can’t do yet.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#155

Post by 23B1 »

russelldjimmy wrote: post #103
HKH2 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite our best efforts, we are deeply irrational. Our thinking is based on instinct, not on core principles; it's a top-down approach driven by feelings.

Off topic - a pet peeve of mine is seeing humans termed as “irrational”. Please forgive my rant, as it is not personally targeted at you. We only seem “irrational” when we are talking about a narrow view of “rationality”, i.e., as defined by the cold hard logic of machines. We do not question why we have this definition of rationality. Our “irrationality” simply seems so because we have not bothered to understand the…

Ehh, is survivability the only metric by which you measure instinct?

You can, as a human, map the 'wrong' response to external stimuli resulting in, say, your death (or the deaths of your progeny, for that matter)

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#156

Post by kumarvvr »

bsaul wrote: post #118
PheonixPharts wrote: post #41

As someone who has worked in the field of AI/ML for quite awhile now, the problem with current AGI predictions is ML hasn't done anything new since the 80s (or arguably earlier). At the end of the day all ML is using gradient descent to do some sort of non-linear projection of the data on to a latent space, then doing some relatively simple math in this latent space to perform some task. Personally I think the limits…

« I don't believe we've seen any evidence of this. » I think chatgpt did show proof of what was considered at least until very recently « intelligence ». aka: understand enough about context and concepts to provide relevant answers to very complex and open questions.

Is it understanding or, generating closest possible set of tokens that are accepted as a response to an received input of tokens?

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#158

Post by WinLychee »

GaggiX wrote: post #138
blast wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We dont have better algorithms, we just have more data" - Peter Norvig

What about AlphaZero? No prior data.

> The parameters θ of the deep neural network in AlphaZero are trained by self-play reinforcement learning, starting from randomly initialised parameters θ. Games are played by selecting moves for both players by MCTS, at ∼ πππt. At the end of the game, the terminal position sT is scored according to the rules of the game to compute the game outcome z: −1 for a loss, 0 for a draw, and +1 for a win.

In this case sounds like better algorithm + a lot of self-generated data (but no prior knowledge other than rules).

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#159

Post by pmoriarty »

23B1 wrote: post #152
ml-anon wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling them "hallucinations" is a shoddy piece of terminology by the community which anthropomorphises them.

What would you recommend calling them? Genuinely curious.

Mistakes.

Re: Google DeepMind CEO says some form of AGI possible in a few years

#160

Post by SanderNL »

ZiiS wrote: post #157

It is _possible_ we will be visited by advanced alien life in a few years. Obviously they could give us AGI or basically any other technology. None of our current approaches have demonstrated they will yield AGI in the next few years.

ZiiS told us all our approaches to this problem are fruitless and will never result in anything resembling AGI. How exactly he knows this is unknown to us, because we are still researching the basic properties of the systems we are currently producing at a staggering rate.

Nevertheless it is quite a relief. We can now let this all go and return to frolicking in the meadows again.

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