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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#151

Post by roenxi »

tptacek wrote: post #85
varispeed wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's a convention, in the ComicCon sense This is a common way people use to rationalise it. But how do you think decisions are made when there is group of people where each one has a part to play to execute a policy? The word you are looking for is a meeting. People meet, discuss, share concerns and agree plan. At this level, this is not something you can do over a Zoom call as you don't know who may be in the room…

One way you can tell it's a conspiracy theory is that people talk about the WEF, which has no power other than arranging the name tags on the lunch tables at the gatherings, rather than the actual policy makers making decisions. Try a thought experiment: contravene the will of the World Economic Forum. What happens next? You don't get to go next year? Statistically, that means your company performance will significan…

That argument doesn't make sense. It is like saying that the policies Bharatiya Janata Party are a conspiracy theory because the party is basically just a big social club, and upsetting a few key members of the BJP executive doesn't imply anything. It doesn't, but then later in unrelated news a billion Indians might start making life difficult for our hypothetical upsetter at the direction of the Indian parliament.

The social club is convened for the purpose of high status people deciding how to influence the direction of the World Economy. It isn't a literature club. Their consensus opinions and the voices in the room matter a lot.

> .. people talk about the WEF ... rather than the actual policy makers

The names aren't a mystery. Klaus Schwab organises the thing. Lists of the politicians and businessmen are published. It is easier to say WEF than to say "9 of the 10 wealthiest people except Adani". Especially since Adani still attends some of the meetups.

https://qz.com/davos-2023-world-economic-forum-attendees-184...

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#152

Post by bandrami »

b112 wrote: post #142
bandrami wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about Ireland, but in the US the home ownership rate is higher than it was at any point in the 20th century. So however bad the situation is it doesn't seem to actually prevent people from buying a house.

In the 90s, I didn't know anyone in their 20s, who didn't have a roommate(or two!), or were married. No one I knew, could afford an entire apartment to themselves! I find it weird that people complain about not being able to rent their own entire apartment, but are in their 20s. It wasn't a thing 30 years ago! As one advances in their career, eg in their 30s, then income tends to rise, due to experience, and better p…

Anecdote is always dangerous, but 100% same here; I had housemates in the 1990s and this was entirely normal in the city I was in (DC). Come to think of it the only time before I got married I lived alone was when I rented a friend's basement for a couple of years basically as a favor to him.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#153

Post by b112 »

tptacek wrote: post #108
WillPostForFood wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like activists start the gaslight machine when people point out that a lot of the problem in SF is imported. https://cis.org/Arthur/Honduran-Migrants-and-San-Francisco-D... Here is the mayor apologizing for saying it. Not because it isn't true, but because you aren't supposed to say it out loud. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-10-20/san-fran...

Gross. This isn't about whether the majority of underclass people in San Francisco are native Californians, but rather a case that crime in the US is the fault of Hondurans and El Salvadorans. More Hondurans end up in Texas than in California, but nobody is posting memes about how order has broken down in Houston.

More Hondurans end up in Texas than in California

As a Canuck, immediately I thought "But Texans will shoot criminals".

True or not, the belief is there for many. That does have some power. maybe.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#154

Post by listenallyall »

timkam wrote: post #10

A key problem in Sweden -- besides the weird interaction of privatization and legacy over-regulation -- is that the current inflation and rising interest rates break the social contract: a relatively even salary distribution allowed many people to have a solid middle-class life style, recently albeit with never-ending mortgages. Now, the interest rates are too high for these mortgages to be even superficially sustain…

Modestly high interest rates are the only way to break the growth of income inequality fueled by low interest rates.

There are other factors boosting real estate prices -- more people desiring to live alone, ease of renting an unused property via Airbnb, people living longer, massive wealth generation via stock markets -- but a low-rate environment offers existing wealth much more leverage to grow.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#155

Post by Bellend »

watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

I believe we are in a time where everyone is milking the 90s-20s real estate bubble and no one wants to be first to fold. Internationally, not just on a per country basis. As soon as say, French real estate collapses (or UK or USA or Germany etc), the whole rotten castle of cards will fold as well. If it doesn't you can enjoy the expensive property, but you won't be eating farmed foods, won't be in a clean environment and wont have nurses to look after you since no one can afford to be in any relative area and I mean just for shelter from the elements.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#156

Post by tpmx »

jdmoreira wrote: post #61

I'm in the highest percentiles of income in Sweden (public data is available) and it doesn't matter. It's basically impossible for me to afford a house / apartment for my family in the best neighborhoods. What's the point? What is the point of trying to be a high performer if wealth can't be acquired by income? Why would I want to work for anyone in this country? Only way out is equity and that game is even harder to…

This is the thing I'm always fascinated by in these stories - the complete lack of understanding for why not everyone can have everything in a particular place with finite resources.

> I'm in the highest percentiles of income in Sweden

Which one is it then? 80th? 90th? 99th? 99.5th?

> It's basically impossible for me to afford a house / apartment for my family in the best neighborhoods.

Which are the "best neighborhoods" in your mind? How many houses/apartments are there in those "best" neighborhoods?

Do you see why these numbers matter if you're trying to learn from this situation rather than just complain and pretend nothing is finite?

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#157

Post by tptacek »

roenxi wrote: post #151
tptacek wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One way you can tell it's a conspiracy theory is that people talk about the WEF, which has no power other than arranging the name tags on the lunch tables at the gatherings, rather than the actual policy makers making decisions. Try a thought experiment: contravene the will of the World Economic Forum. What happens next? You don't get to go next year? Statistically, that means your company performance will significan…

That argument doesn't make sense. It is like saying that the policies Bharatiya Janata Party are a conspiracy theory because the party is basically just a big social club, and upsetting a few key members of the BJP executive doesn't imply anything. It doesn't, but then later in unrelated news a billion Indians might start making life difficult for our hypothetical upsetter at the direction of the Indian parliament. T…

The BJP is in fact not just a big social club.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#158

Post by tptacek »

b112 wrote: post #153
tptacek wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gross. This isn't about whether the majority of underclass people in San Francisco are native Californians, but rather a case that crime in the US is the fault of Hondurans and El Salvadorans. More Hondurans end up in Texas than in California, but nobody is posting memes about how order has broken down in Houston.

More Hondurans end up in Texas than in California As a Canuck, immediately I thought "But Texans will shoot criminals". True or not, the belief is there for many. That does have some power. maybe.

No, it doesn't.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#159

Post by roenxi »

tptacek wrote: post #157
roenxi wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That argument doesn't make sense. It is like saying that the policies Bharatiya Janata Party are a conspiracy theory because the party is basically just a big social club, and upsetting a few key members of the BJP executive doesn't imply anything. It doesn't, but then later in unrelated news a billion Indians might start making life difficult for our hypothetical upsetter at the direction of the Indian parliament. T…

The BJP is in fact not just a big social club.

The WEF is in fact not just a big social club either. People go their to coordinate, discuss policy and make deals.

They aren't going for the merch. They are there to lobby and influence, dare I say, the World Economy.

I mean, https://www.weforum.org/focus/the-great-reset . They're not talking about the weather. They're looking at the future and coordinating a response.

EDIT https://www.weforum.org/great-reset was a better link.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#160

Post by whitemary »

voisin wrote: post #146
watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> Housing is the main driver of inequality Low interest rates and endless money is the main driver of inequality. Housing was just one manifestation of the root cause.

Capital accumulation and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall are the objective fundamental causes of inequality in every capitalist society, which is why every capitalist society depends on a plethora of ostensible efforts to counter these fundamental characteristics of capitalism.

https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_accumulation

https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to...

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