The Contradictions of Sam Altman • Hacker News Board

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#151

Post by sroussey » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:54 PM UTC

startupsfail wrote: post #111

iibarea wrote: post #87

There's tons of extremely effective marketing around who this guy is, what he stands for - and so I'd instead look at what he's done. He took a non-profit intended to offset the commercial motives driving AI development, and turned it into a for profit closely tied to Microsoft. I think he's an extremely shrewd executive and salesman, but nothing he's done suggests any altruistic motivations - that part always seems…

What I’m afraid of is that he and Ilya are not as good and smart as they paint themselves. And that a lot of key people had left (i.e. to Anthropic). And that by pure inertia they have GPT-5 on their hands and not much control over where this technology is going. I can’t tell for certain, but it does look like one of their corner pieces, the ChatGPT system prompt which sits at the funnel of the data collection had de…

> ChatGPT system prompt which sits at the funnel of the data collection had degraded significantly from the previous version

They purposely moved free users to a simpler/cheaper model. Depending on your setting and if you are paying, there are three models you might be inferencing with.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#152

Post by IncRnd » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:54 PM UTC

FormerBandmate wrote: post #135

startupsfail wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I’m afraid of is that he and Ilya are not as good and smart as they paint themselves. And that a lot of key people had left (i.e. to Anthropic). And that by pure inertia they have GPT-5 on their hands and not much control over where this technology is going. I can’t tell for certain, but it does look like one of their corner pieces, the ChatGPT system prompt which sits at the funnel of the data collection had de…

You can use Anthropic’s chatbot in Quora’s Poe app. Right now it isn’t as good as Bing or ChatGPT. Misses some basic logic things, and the “As an AI language model” BS still stops it from doing fun things like making Jesus rap battle Gus Fring (that was like a month ago, someone in the replies got it to do that so I’ll have to check it out again). I’d have to see how it is at writing PowerPoints but idk

  Verse 1 - Jesus

I'm the son of God, the King of Kings

You're just a drug lord, selling crystal meth and things

My teachings change lives, bring peace to the world

You bring addiction, violence and pain, unfurled

  Chorus

Jesus, the savior, the light in the dark

Gus Fring, the villain, who leaves his mark

  Verse 2 - Gus Fring

You talk a big game, but where's your proof?

I've built an empire, with power that's bulletproof

Your miracles are outdated, my tactics are new

I'll take you down, no matter what you do

  Chorus

Jesus, the savior, the light in the dark

Gus Fring, the villain, who leaves his mark

  Verse 3 - Jesus

My love conquers all, it's the greatest force

Your money and power, just lead to remorse

You're just a man, with a fragile ego

I'll show you mercy, but you reap what you sow

  Chorus

Jesus, the savior, the light in the dark

Gus Fring, the villain, who leaves his mark

  Verse 4 - Gus Fring

You may have won this battle, but the war is not done

I'll continue to rise, until I've won

You may have followers, but they'll never be mine

I'll always come out on top, every time

  Chorus

Jesus, the savior, the light in the dark

Gus Fring, the villain, who leaves his mark

  Outro

In the end, it's clear to see

Jesus brings hope and love, for you and me

Gus Fring may have power, but it's not enough

Jesus is the way, the truth, the life, and that's tough.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#153

Post by choppaface » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:55 PM UTC

sacnoradhq wrote: post #132

Sama He stuck to the 99.9% gamble of setting money on fire that were startups and navigated to the big time(tm). Also, he helped lift Clerky, Triplebyte, YC, and may others pre, during, and post Loopt. Not many people (or no one) "deserves" success, but Sama brings a healthy dose of goodwill wherever he goes.

Triplebyte and Loopt both ended up selling / monetizing user data in ways the users really didn’t like.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#154

Post by 876978095789789 » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:56 PM UTC

ohgodplsno wrote: post #128

mongol wrote: post #9

How did he become so rich? His Wikipedia page does not have much details on this.

Parents were rich, sent their child to Stanford and used their connections to let him build connections to other rich people, founded a shitty startup in the middle of a period where any rich kid making a social media company would get bought out for dozens of millions, rest is history. He's always been rich.

On Loopt's questionable acquisition: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3684357

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#155

Post by jstummbillig » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:57 PM UTC

startupsfail wrote: post #111

iibarea wrote: post #87

There's tons of extremely effective marketing around who this guy is, what he stands for - and so I'd instead look at what he's done. He took a non-profit intended to offset the commercial motives driving AI development, and turned it into a for profit closely tied to Microsoft. I think he's an extremely shrewd executive and salesman, but nothing he's done suggests any altruistic motivations - that part always seems…

What I’m afraid of is that he and Ilya are not as good and smart as they paint themselves. And that a lot of key people had left (i.e. to Anthropic). And that by pure inertia they have GPT-5 on their hands and not much control over where this technology is going. I can’t tell for certain, but it does look like one of their corner pieces, the ChatGPT system prompt which sits at the funnel of the data collection had de…

There are some vague ideas and fears here. Understandable. Trying find a silver lining from where to get somewhere: Where would GPT4 and onwards be better housed? Is there a setup -- an individual, a company, an institution, a concept, license -- where the whole thing would clearly better fit, than with OpenAI?

Note, I am not suggesting that they are particularly un/qualified or un/trustworthy. I am just trying to figure, if the problem is with the nature of the technology, that maybe there is not entity or setup, that would obviously be a good fit for governing gpt because gpt is simply scary, or this is a personality issue.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#156

Post by coffeebeqn » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 7:57 PM UTC

dragonelite wrote: post #139

victor106 wrote: post #126

> OpenAI and Microsoft also created a joint safety board, which includes Mr. Altman and Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Kevin Scott, that has the power to roll back Microsoft and OpenAI product releases if they are deemed too dangerous. what a joke. find me one instance where the ceo of a company picked public interest/safety over profits when there was no regulatory oversight?

Do people really think AI will go haywire like in the Hollywood movies?

Some do. Personally I think that LLMs will hit a ceiling eventually way before AGI. Just like self driving - the last 20% is orders of magnitude more difficult than the first 80%

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#157

Post by iibarea » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 8:00 PM UTC

cookingrobot wrote: post #145

iibarea wrote: post #87

There's tons of extremely effective marketing around who this guy is, what he stands for - and so I'd instead look at what he's done. He took a non-profit intended to offset the commercial motives driving AI development, and turned it into a for profit closely tied to Microsoft. I think he's an extremely shrewd executive and salesman, but nothing he's done suggests any altruistic motivations - that part always seems…

He didn’t take equity in OpenAi. Does that suggest altruism?

Assuming we take this at face value, once you have a lot of money power becomes appealing - and control over a very important player in the AI space is that. The original vision of openAI was democratization of that decision-making process, the model now is - these guys are in charge. Maybe that's altruistic, because they're the smartest guys in the room and they can mitigate the downside risks of this tech (... not fucking AGI, but much more like the infinite propaganda potential of chatGPT). I'm more a fan of democratization, but that's not a universally held opinion in sv.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#158

Post by efficientsticks » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 8:02 PM UTC

htss2013 wrote: post #83

efficientsticks wrote: post #28

> The goal, the company said, was to avoid a race toward building dangerous AI systems fueled by competition and instead prioritize the safety of humanity. > “You want to be there first and you want to be setting the norms,” he said. “That’s part of the reason why speed is a moral and ethical thing here.” Clearly having either not learned or ignored the lessons from Black Mirror and 1984, which is that others will co…

Do we have the capability for advanced socialism? Because I recall all the smartest economists circa 2021 saying inflation wasn't a thing, it's transient, it's only covid affected supply chains. In reality we are in an broad sticky inflation crisis not seen since the 70s, which may be turning into a regional banking crisis. It's difficult to believe we have reached advanced socialism capabilities, and all of the fore…

The ambiguity of “advanced socialism” is problematic for any meaningful debate, so I apologise for that.

I was meaning something closer to “we have the resources and technology (in this advanced era), just not the wisdom or political will”. The actual nature of what could be provided is up for debate, but if we’re looking at mass unemployment in 2 decades’ time, perhaps it’s a conversation worth having again.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#159

Post by mirekrusin » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 8:04 PM UTC

Jasper_ wrote: post #123

TechnicolorByte wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a capped-profit structure where excess profit will supposedly go back to the no-profit side. From a recent NYTimes article [1]: > But these profits are capped, and any additional revenue will be pumped back into the OpenAI nonprofit that was founded back in 2015. > His grand idea is that OpenAI will capture much of the world’s wealth through the creation of A.G.I. and then redistribute this wealth to the people.…

Returns are capped at 100x their initial investment, which, you know, is not that big of a cap. VCs would go crazy for a 100x return. Most companies, even unicorns, don't get there. They're justifying it by saying AGI is so stupidly big that OpenAI will see 100000x returns if uncapped. So, you know, standard FOMO tactics. [0] https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp

This cap is much smaller, 100x was for initial investors. Microsoft took every single penny they could to get 49% stake.

If they won’t do AGI, they won’t go over the cap with profits and all drama is for nothing - so saying it’s fake cap is not right.

Please somebody correct me if I’m wrong.

Re: The Contradictions of Sam Altman

#160

Post by Mistletoe » Sat, Apr 01, 2023, 8:04 PM UTC

bmitc wrote: post #129

startupsfail wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I’m afraid of is that he and Ilya are not as good and smart as they paint themselves. And that a lot of key people had left (i.e. to Anthropic). And that by pure inertia they have GPT-5 on their hands and not much control over where this technology is going. I can’t tell for certain, but it does look like one of their corner pieces, the ChatGPT system prompt which sits at the funnel of the data collection had de…

> What I’m afraid of is that he and Ilya are not as good and smart as they paint themselves. This describes almost any venture capitalist or high-profile startup founders, as far as I can tell. Most don't realize their either privileged path or lucky path or both had more to do with it than their smarts. I really like James Simons as he mostly attributes his success to luck and being able to hire and organize smart p…

I don’t know everything about him but from what I do know, I would put Bezos in the “not just luck” very lonely camp. I think his Day 1 work and iterate every day idea is just that powerful and real and he really did it instead of talking about it. Even though he says he won several lotteries to get where he is, I’m not so sure.