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IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

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Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#151

Post by juujian »

makerofspoons wrote: post #145

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

I would love to say this comes as a surprise, but it really does not. UN Secretary-General Guterres really foreshadowed that last year, and he did not mince his words. Really unusual for somebody that role, usually it is more of a diplomat-style position.

> Using bogus ‘net-zero’ pledges to cover up massive fossil fuel expansion is reprehensible.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#152

Post by Retric »

vkou wrote: post #143
timr wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The greatest trick that has been pulled on us this century is somehow billing gas as a 'green' source of energy. Gas has significantly lower emissions than coal. Progress is progress. Absolutism gets us nowhere, unless your goal is to drive humanity back to the stone age by "switching" to energy production systems that do not currently exist (with the exception of nuclear, which is the only currently practical solu…

> Absolutism gets us nowhere, And building out natgas will get us into a situation where we are locked into decades of guaranteed emissions, as all the vested interests in the production and consumption space fight tooth and nail to protect their line of business, and the capex they've dumped into it. There's no plausible net-carbon zero path this century that's compatible with our current buildout of natgas. Perfect…

Natural gas is a great pathway to net zero because the fuel is so vastly more explosive than the equipment. People own gas turbines that are literally used for less than a week a year and are simply paid for standby capacity.

Quite literally you’re better off building solar where 1/2 it’s output is wasted over a year than burning natural gas. When you’re building that much solar things are very close to net zero.

Eventually batteries will replace natural gas, but until that happens we need technologies that can fill the gaps in demand and nuclear can’t do it economically.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#153

Post by juujian »

Just looking at the press conference slides, some notable stuff in there. "The challeng ... Cut global GHG emissions by nearly half by 2030." I don't know why they bother putting that in there, it is obviously not going to happen. We will be lucky if by 2030 the emissions are below the current level...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#154

Post by dang »

chrismatic wrote: post #150
PheeThav1zae7fi wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

"Don't feed egregious comments by replying; flag them instead."

a.k.a. please don't feed the trolls

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#155

Post by Retric »

geysersam wrote: post #138
scottLobster wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue we have no idea what will happen when the glaciers melt, given the lack of accurate climate change predictions to date. We have a lot of models that have historically proven very incomplete with no reason to believe they're any more complete now. The oceans rising is more a problem, but it's not going to end human civilization and will happen slowly enough that adaptation is possible, albeit expensive. "Dro…

> Drowning is hyperbole English is not my first language. How would you describe something previously on land becoming submerged by the ocean?

Flooding.

Drowning is when a living organism is submerged, flooding is when buildings are submerged.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#156

Post by Retric »

tomatotomato37 wrote: post #116
Retric wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you actually be willing to bet that world population drops by 800+ million people within 10 years of 1.5C?

Depends, can we filter out any deaths caused by the current major landwar between the breadbasket of europe & the "Order #227" gas station?

No need to filter anything. If world population drops by that much I’ll concede the bet, if it doesn’t then they lose.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#157

Post by barbazoo »

makerofspoons wrote: post #145

The comparisons between the AR5 and AR6 are alarming. Now, under no emission scenarios other than low and very low which we are not tracking close to, we reach +2C at or just before 2050. Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration: https://sciencenorway.no/climate-climate-change/deadly-heat-...

> Many reading this thread will see 3 degrees by the time they plan to retire. This comes with drought, undernourishment, and mass migration

I wonder what it'll feel like looking back at that point. There isn't anything that I alone can do right now to prevent this from happening, it has to be a collective action but still, we've been warned for decades, over and over, we knew what would happen. Will we regret not having mobilized more, joined every protest out there, not having written our representatives more than we did, not having made more sustainable choices than we did? I know the effect of personal choices and actions is marginal but still, I'm sure we'll feel lots and lots of regret.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#158

Post by p0pcult »

toxik wrote: post #24
Rygian wrote: post #8

For anyone interested in what 1.5C represents, I can't recommend enough the Climate Fresk [1] exercise. It's not just the droughts and floods, the heatwaves, the changes in birds, insects, crop yields, … Include permafrost melting and releasing greenhouse gasses, civil unrest in populated areas that won't be livable anymore, unstable food production, and quite a few other causes and consequences. It's a feedback loop…

What I always find so hard to believe is that, knowing how well we can predict weather and other complicated systems, climate change science somehow is able to make 1/10 centigrade precision predictions on time horizons of decades and centuries.

Aggregates (global temp average over a year) are generally more predictable than the underlying datapoints (daily local weather).

Source: am data scientist.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#159

Post by Retric »

vkou wrote: post #58
Retric wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Longer term projections on 2.5C look more hopeful. Globally electricity production has gotten significantly more green, though offset by increased demand. But, new coal power plants for example were down 66% globally in 2020 vs 2016 and existing infrastructure only lasts so long. Project things forward to 2040 and emissions should be noticeably below current levels even with increasing demand simple because of econom…

Coal is only going out of style because we are building out new natgas plants. The greatest trick that has been pulled on us this century is somehow billing gas as a 'green' source of energy. Electric cars are an expensive distraction from the problem. The sustainable future of transportation is the electric train, the electric trolley, the electric scooter, and the electric bicycle. Personal automobiles, electric or…

Also > Coal is only going out of style because we are building out new natgas plants.

False. Total electricity produced from fossil fuels (coal + natural gas + Oil) is down even ignoring efficiency gains which reduced the amounts needed per kWh.

US per person total Fossil Fuel based electricity production production: 2020: 7,322 kWh, 2019: 7,861 kWh, 2015: 8,499 kWh, 2010: 9,321 kWh, 2005: 9,838 kWh. It’s offset somewhat by increased population but the overall trend is still really clear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_of_the_Unit...

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#160

Post by myrmidon »

af3d wrote: post #146

[flagged]

I would like to understand your PoV:

Are you not concerned because you think current mainstream-science overestimates the consequences [1]? Or do you just believe that climate change will have little effect on you, personally?

[1]: Flooding, biodiversity loss, food production yield, increase in regions and days/year with human-lethal outside temperatures (see relevant graphs in "summary for policymakers" around pg 16)

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