Hmm you're right about the Circle balance sheet. It is/was indeed short dated bills not notes. https://6778953.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/6778953... Although, still room for losses with those numbers ($50B) https://ycharts.com/indicators/3_month_t_bill , and make them more likely to want to hold to maturity.
Not nearly the same kind of losses, I don't think. The drop in value of bond-like investments is heavily affected not just by the change in interest rates but also the duration: long duration bonds drop much more heavily because the total amount of interest people now expect over their life is much higher. The interest rates on three-month Treasury bills has barely increased over the last few months (which is obvious…
I agree with your conclusion: holding 3-month t-bills virtually isolates you from interest rate risk.
But not because rates do not change (they do, a lot: for example 3-month rate jumped by over 0.5% in 2 weeks of Oct 2022). But due to the short duration such change barely affects the remaining interest paid by each bill, which is what determines bill's price.
USD is backed up by USA army. If a country refuses to accept USD they will have a democracy problem and get attacked.
Unlucky for the UK coffee shop that wouldn’t take my USD this morning I guess? Not quite sure what you’re trying to say, if a country doesn’t want to accept usd…they don’t have to
I think he means that the US military has a habit of invading countries who sell oil in currencies other than the US$.
There's something deeply ironic about a flight to safety in the form of Tether , which has famously been described as being "quilted out of red flags". But if you can't redeem it and it's not backed by anything remotely approaching normal assets, I guess you can't have a bank run on it either... until the music stops and the insiders propping it up run out of chairs.
Nobody has quite explained to me how that is different from deposits at a bank (modulo government guarantees).
There is also government regulation, like how they must prove that they are solvent and how much they must have in liquid assets to stop bank runs.
Hmm you're right about the Circle balance sheet. It is/was indeed short dated bills not notes. https://6778953.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/6778953... Although, still room for losses with those numbers ($50B) https://ycharts.com/indicators/3_month_t_bill , and make them more likely to want to hold to maturity.
Not nearly the same kind of losses, I don't think. The drop in value of bond-like investments is heavily affected not just by the change in interest rates but also the duration: long duration bonds drop much more heavily because the total amount of interest people now expect over their life is much higher. The interest rates on three-month Treasury bills has barely increased over the last few months (which is obvious…
Agree with the first part, short duration implies lower volatility. But we know that T-bills are zero coupon bonds, so holders are not receiving interest payments along the way, the interest is built into the redemption price. So forced selling because of a run for example, at a bad time, can mean a loss on the price and therefore no interest.
Except a $100 bill is likely accepted. I’ve been to developing countries that will accept local currency, dollars, and euros. I doubt they would accept any pounds, tethers, or other fake electronic currency.
You won't get anywhere with a $100 bill in many developed countries, outside of some very tourist-y areas maybe. At least not in regular shops, of course you can exchange it at a bank. But if you try to order a coffee with US dollars, you won't get one.
In an increasing number of businesses the UK even if you try and pay in pounds (i.e. cash), they won't accept it. Contactless only!
Well whether or not you think banking / government cooperation is a good thing, the fact of the matter is that even when large catastrophes occur, the system is brought back up on its feet. You can't say the same for crypto systems, luna / terra being a very recent example.
Hey, nice straw man. Of course I think banks should cooperate with the government. I just don't think banks should be more powerful than the gov, which in the US, arguably they are in certain contexts. And I never said crypto anything was stable on any level. I genuinely believe crypto has 0 usefulness for anything other than very specialised cases, usually to do with avoiding regulation. The point I was making was t…
What you're missing is the bailout is part of the system, and counts towards its stability.
In your analogy imagine your SAAS product horribly crashed and deleted customer data. So your cloud provider restored from the backups you had arranged and you were running normally soon after. Not ideal, but you had a far more stable system than someone without backups.
If I’m visiting a country it’s usually as a tourist. Even on my business trips I spent half the time being a tourist.
Handling a foreign currency is a lot of overhead, you will only find this accepted in locations where it is quite common for people to not have the local currency. If you're in the middle of Europe you'll have a hard time finding a place that will just accept US dollars outside of some very tourist focused destinations. And even there I'm not sure if it'll work. The places where I've seen this mostly work was near bo…