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US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

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Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#151

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

motohagiography wrote: post #116

It doesn't matter what the object was, it's that America's adversaries know they can do it without consequences, and what makes them believe this is what matters about this story. That is the irreversible change it signifies, imo.

If other reports are to be believed this has been happening for a while, and isn't some sort of new irreversible change. This is just the first time the public has become aware of it. The difference here seems to be that it was shot down (possibly because it had become so infamous).

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#152

Post by [deleted] »

mikewarot wrote: post #78
MonkeyMalarky wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say it feels like a return to the era of cold war tensions but I wouldn't know, I was born around when the Berlin Wall fell. What say you older HNers, is this what it was like?

It feels to me like things are just starting to spool up. Unlike during my youth, I think the playing field is much more tilted in the United States favor. I had lots of nightmares about seeing a bright orange flash in the window back in my youth. I've had a few recently. If they decide to take out the Steel Works in Gary, I'll be toast. If not, fallout is something that can be avoided by staying inside, away from ex…

[deleted]

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#154

Post by [deleted] »

next_xibalba wrote: post #108

I've wondered if these incursions are intentional on the part of the Chinese to provoke a precedent setting response to airborne (and beyond) surveillance. "They shoot down our surveillance balloons, giving us precedent to shoot down their high altitude drone planes or satellites in the future."

[deleted]

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#156

Post by consumer451 »

dTal wrote: post #114
next_xibalba wrote: post #108

I've wondered if these incursions are intentional on the part of the Chinese to provoke a precedent setting response to airborne (and beyond) surveillance. "They shoot down our surveillance balloons, giving us precedent to shoot down their high altitude drone planes or satellites in the future."

This is a very reasonable explanation for the otherwise mysterious question of why even use an (obvious, provocative) balloon in the first place, when China has perfectly good satellites. It may not be exactly what they have in mind, but I think it's the right way to think about the question - they are engineering scenarios which work to their advantage no matter how the US responds. US shoots them down? Play outrage…

> when China has perfectly good satellites.

We need to move past this whole "why use spy balloons when we have satellites" thing. Even Scott Manley repeated it.

The USA has what are likely the most capable surveillance satellites in the world yet the USA still employs spy planes.

For one thing, RF signals suffer from path loss over distance. The difference is >140km in distance. That's a lot of signal loss. Another factor is loiter time.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#157

Post by jollyllama »

moose_man wrote: post #134
jollyllama wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's been going on for decades, and supposedly the balloons are nothing new. What's changed is the USA response, in terms of the American general's rhetoric and the coverage and downing of balloons. So there's been a shift on the part of the USA.

That's a lie. It started in 2012 but it took until the middle of the 2010s before they started openly threatening war. This is not some status quo situation that the US General upended. China's been escalating toward war since Xi took over. I mean before Xi it was hide your strength bide your time.

Ok, a decade ago.

> it took until the middle of the 2010s

Here's a Chinese general openly threatening war with Japan in 2012:

https://freebeacon.com/national-security/chinese-general-pre...

The Taiwan Strait crisis of the '90s was before my time but it'd be interesting to know how bellicose the rhetoric got back then.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#158

Post by password11 »

motohagiography wrote: post #116

It doesn't matter what the object was, it's that America's adversaries know they can do it without consequences, and what makes them believe this is what matters about this story. That is the irreversible change it signifies, imo.

> it's that America's adversaries know they can do it without consequences

There was a consequence -- we shot it down.

> That is the irreversible change it signifies, imo.

It's not irreversible. Additional consequences can be initiated at any time.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#159

Post by moose_man »

jollyllama wrote: post #157
moose_man wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lie. It started in 2012 but it took until the middle of the 2010s before they started openly threatening war. This is not some status quo situation that the US General upended. China's been escalating toward war since Xi took over. I mean before Xi it was hide your strength bide your time.

Ok, a decade ago. > it took until the middle of the 2010s Here's a Chinese general openly threatening war with Japan in 2012: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/chinese-general-pre... The Taiwan Strait crisis of the '90s was before my time but it'd be interesting to know how bellicose the rhetoric got back then.

Different than threatening war with US. Edit and yes, it stepped up in 2012 when Xi took over. Started with Japan and has migrated to aggression against US and allies.

Edit: Taiwan crisis wasn't great, but it ended when the US sailed an aircraft carrier through Strait of Taiwan. So while it wasn't great, it wasn't like they were threatening war against US.

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