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Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

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Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#151
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such low orbits should prevent that being a long term problem. I also wonder how much more difficult it is to target satellites going this fast than say the one China destroyed a few years ago?

> Such low orbits should prevent that being a long term problem. Wouldn't a military power be more willing to trigger Kessler syndrome for 5 years than 500?

That depends on whether that military thinks they rely on space less than the other military. But likely there will always be at least one military that thinks it would be to their advantage.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#152
post #149
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already have global coverage via a range of communication satellites used by various programs going back decades. For example the F-16 program had an independent network for effectively global coverage via 4 geostationary satellites. Other systems used polar orbits for actual global coverage. Starlink has more total bandwidth and lower orbits, but the US military only needs so much bandwidth.

I would expect the bandwidth demands of the US military to be effectively infinite. Especially if the connection can be guaranteed and is low latency. Communication is incredibly valuable in maneuver based combined arms warfare. The main limit is being able to quickly react and properly coordinate. For that comms are important, and reliability of comms is incredibly valuable, with latency being important as well. Sta…

The DoD has far more than just 4 satellites. Anyway Starlink satellites are really low making them much easier targets.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a single HARP style light gas gun couldn’t cheaply take down every Starlink satellite for a few hundred million total. The best defense is having a wide range of satellite orbits and the ability to quickly deploy more. If nothing else, a single nuclear EMP could wreck a huge swath of the Starlink network.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The kill vehicles are staged in orbit just like Starlink satellites.. See Brilliant Pebbles.

You're talking about boost-phase interceptors, not mid-course interceptors. Starship to replace GMD (as suggested by credit_guy) doesn't make much sense, but Starship does have the technical ability to launch a massive constellation of space-based interceptors for quite cheap. With Starship, it should be possible to put tens of thousands of interceptors into LEO, and to rapidly replenish the constellation. As for the…

The problem with weapons in space are that they put the opposing super-powers in an impossible position. Hence it forces them to make a move asap to prevent being at a total disadvantage. This is mostly because weapons in space can be used with very little warning. There is little defense, and not even any notice that allows you to prepare or setup a second strike.

Plenty of people don't think that's bad, but it seems that the top military decision makers of all super-powers do see the problem with that, and hence they have managed to keep weapons out of space. This remains a high-level decision, so it only takes a few rational people for the game-theory to work.

Consider the external politics around mobilization. It is a big deal to mobilize externally, because it forces opposing players to also mobilize, hence moving everyone closer to conflict. The thing about weapons in space is that they are effectively always mobilized. Even if you could sustain perpetual mobilization, it wouldn't be a good strategic move.

Something similar goes for missile defense systems that are too effective. It disrupts MAD, and pushes the opposing side in to a corner. Either make a move before the defense system is up, or accept a role as a second grade power from now on. The problem, specifically, is that it removes the second-strike capability much more than that it removes the first-strike capability.

So having a missile-defense system in orbit has game-theoretical downsides both for being in space, and for removing the enemies second-strike capability.

The same does not quite hold for having the capability to launch such a missile defense system. It gives your opponent time to react when you launch it. Hence they do not need to immediately react to you having the capability. So I think research into this area, preparations, and development of the system are fine. Heck it is even important and desirable. We just need to continuously refuse to even ready such systems outside of well-announced and limited tests.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three things: 1) That way you would have a single Starship launching a single kill vehicle in more than 1000 pieces. In order to be truly independent, each kill vehicle needs significant delta-v on its own, which lowers the number of kill vehicles by two orders of magnitude. 2) Starship has pretty weak engines for this task. While the missile used to launch the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle reaches ~10 km/s in less tha…

1. Not sure what you mean by significant delta-v. An 8km/s vehicle meeting a 6km/s warhead coming from the opposite direction will kill it just as surely as a 10km/s one. If you mean delta-v to go laterally, for that 1km/s is probably more than enough. A vehicle with 1km/s delta-v is, in the worst case scenario, twice as heavy than one with 100m/s delta-v, not 100 times as heavy. 2. 9 minutes is plenty. A ballistic m…

The delta-v is not needed to get a big enough impact. The delta-v is needed to be able to maneuver into an intercept orbit. In case you don't know, for rockets the fundamental limit of their fuel is expressed in delta-v.

Your kill vehicle doesn't need much delta-V if you can launch it close enough to an intercept course. But if all warheads are launched in very different directions, and all your kill vehicles need to start from a central starship point, they can't all be launched 'close enough' to an intercept course.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#155
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4x giant geostationary assets have a drastically different adversarial profile compared to 10,000 mini assets.

The DoD has far more than just 4 satellites up there. Anyway, it’s vastly easier to destroy LEO satellites than Geostationary ones. A surprisingly tiny missile fired from an aircraft doing Mach 2 can take out Starlink satellites as you only need vertical speed the satellite provides energy at collision, but geostationary orbit takes significantly more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon

> The DoD has far more than just 4 satellites up there.

Yeah, and they want a hell of a lot more. Seriously, read up on NDSA. For the transport layer they want hundreds to thousands of satellites in LEO.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#156
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The DoD has far more than just 4 satellites up there. Anyway, it’s vastly easier to destroy LEO satellites than Geostationary ones. A surprisingly tiny missile fired from an aircraft doing Mach 2 can take out Starlink satellites as you only need vertical speed the satellite provides energy at collision, but geostationary orbit takes significantly more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon

> The DoD has far more than just 4 satellites up there. Yeah, and they want a hell of a lot more. Seriously, read up on NDSA. For the transport layer they want hundreds to thousands of satellites in LEO.

From the sources I looked at, NDSA is supposed to be less than 1,000 satellites by 2030 which isn’t a huge jump over what they already have. They just don’t benefit from that kind of satellite density at the bottom of LEO when it comes at the cost of lower lifespan.

What they want from NDSA is multiple different systems each with a separate focus that can all use a uniform transmission layer.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#158
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am glad we can both agree that Russia did in fact interfere in the election.

You're openly spreading Russia propaganda by the guy who founded Wagner (Russia is very important, they even swayed the US election!). I wouldn't pat myself on the back for such a thing. If spending a few hundred $k on foreigners using Twitter/FB advertising accounts is enough to meaningfully sway an election I think we have bigger problems than Russia.

I believe your last statement is accurate.

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#159
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't care, Gwynne Shotwell runs the company. But I do foresee a future in which the SEC bars Musk from holding any executive position for any number of things he has done.

> They don't care, Gwynne Shotwell runs the company. This isn't really true in as much as no one person can "run" a company. She acts as in her role as Chief Operations Officer and President of the company. She doesn't set long term vision and she doesn't generally handle projects that are in early incubation. > But I do foresee a future in which the SEC bars Musk from holding any executive position for any number of…

> This isn't really true in as much as no one person can "run" a company.

People seem to think Musk runs quite a few companies.

> We should try to keep our thoughts within the realm of realistic.

Anyone else would have had their ability to hold an executive position at a publicly traded company revoked by the SEC for this: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026872652290379776

Re: Starshield: Secured satellite network for government entities

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's part of this program, https://www.science.org/content/article/decades-after-reagan... More on Wikipedia: https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Military_capabilities

That doesn't seem related. That's 3 years ago.

Yes they're related. This is SpaceX making public (to a partial extent) what they have long been doing for the Space Development Agency (a Mike Griffin government program closely aligned with Starlink).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_D._Griffin#Career

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