Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#151

Post by mikkergp » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

lake_vincent wrote: post #56

davidw wrote: post #11

I think the thing to watch will be ads and other revenue streams. Most companies aren't going to want their ads next to 'free for all' content, so we'll see what happens.

Well, speaking in those terms, I think the thing to watch will in fact be censorship. Elon is extremely idealistic, so it will be fascinating to watch him melt down when confronted with the reality of how complex free speech and censorship issues really are. I predict that he will succeed in turning Twitter into the rightwing safehaven that "Truth" Social, Parlor, etc have all been trying to become. He's making a dea…

> I predict that he will succeed in turning Twitter into the rightwing safehaven that "Truth" Social, Parlor, etc have all been trying to become.

I actually don't think so, I think this was bluster, or if they are safe haven it will be safe in the way that a subreddit is safe. You can freely talk amongst eachother but that content won't be promoted to people who don't want to see it.

I mean this was his latest tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1586059953311137792?cxt=...

My prediction is he ends up growing twitter into a fairly bland chat/communications app/social network, and the focus on global political and social debates slowly weans over time.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#152

Post by NaturalPhallacy » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

hn8305823 wrote: post #69

He literally said it will not be a free for all. He may be chaotic, but he's not stupid. There is a huge difference between no moderation (anarchy), and not targeting conservative voices solely based on ideology.

>targeting conservative voices solely based on ideology.

Clearly happening, yet even here already we have four people so far claiming that it doesn't, and people flagging/downvoting you for telling the truth.

They banned a conservative satire publication ffs. The Babylon Bee.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."

—George Orwell, 1984

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#153

Post by WaxProlix » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #129

OK, so far, not much. Musk is getting stretched rather thin. Space-X seems to be doing OK with Gwynne Shotwell running things. Tesla, which Musk apparently does really run personally, is doing OK, but their side ventures are not. Self-driving is a mess. Solar panels (yes, Tesla has a solar panel business) are not doing well. The Cybertruck is years late. (Maybe next year.[1]) So is the Tesla Model 2, the low-end vehi…

The cars and panels aren't looking great, but Tesla battery business is good for now though, I think.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#154

Post by metadat » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

twelve40 wrote: post #115

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #9

Prediction: Brain drain at Twitter begins as Elon starts enacting unpopular policies. Valuation tanks. Morale becomes non-existent and Twitter slowly starts to fade from existence while competitors begin to fill the void. I give it 3-5 years before it's gone full husk.

Wikipedia (a feature-rich site) is operated by 500 people. Twitter, with roughly the same measly feature set it had 15 years ago, is operated by 7500 people. Maybe some "brain drain" would not be a bad thing?

They aren't comparable in any meaningful way. They have quite different classes of problems, not to mention the scale of Twitter completely dwarfs that of Wikipedia.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#155

Post by libraryatnight » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

danjoredd wrote: post #142

Animats wrote: post #129

OK, so far, not much. Musk is getting stretched rather thin. Space-X seems to be doing OK with Gwynne Shotwell running things. Tesla, which Musk apparently does really run personally, is doing OK, but their side ventures are not. Self-driving is a mess. Solar panels (yes, Tesla has a solar panel business) are not doing well. The Cybertruck is years late. (Maybe next year.[1]) So is the Tesla Model 2, the low-end vehi…

The problem with Musk's solar panel business is that it is more expensive and less effective than normal solar panels. They look nicer than normal panels, but to thrive off of solar you need as much efficiency as possible. Tesla panels don't provide that especially for the cost.

I live in Phoenix and a lot of people have been turned off on solar in general for their home because a lot of the companies are aggressive and shady. Seems like a missed opportunity for Tesla to have stepped in to be a "reliable" solar company simply by pricing competitively and not going out of business a year after installation.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#156

Post by thethethethe » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

If I was working at Twitter right now I would be looking for a different job, regardless of what I think of Elon's politics/motives. The talk of layoffs and major policy changes creates massive uncertainty and I don't think I'd risk sticking out the transition. I bet many inside the company feel the same.

This begs the question:

If there is a major exodus, will it even matter? And, if it does, how will the problems manifest? Reduced reliability? Slower feature velocity? Less innovation?

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#157

Post by ElevenLathe » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:55 PM UTC

hardtke wrote: post #85

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #9

Prediction: Brain drain at Twitter begins as Elon starts enacting unpopular policies. Valuation tanks. Morale becomes non-existent and Twitter slowly starts to fade from existence while competitors begin to fill the void. I give it 3-5 years before it's gone full husk.

If this is a normal Silicon Valley deal, until Twitter relists or sells the valuation at vest of the already granted RSUs will be $54.20. So from an employee perspective the valuation will stay high.

I would be really surprised if this remains privately-held for very long. It's a LOT of capital (and a lot of it borrowed) so my guess would be that he has an eye on Zuckerberging it (issuing himself a class shares with all the votes, but marketing another class of shares without them).

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#158

Post by HWR_14 » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

TSiege wrote: post #43

I would really like to hear how he's financing this deal. His net worth has dropped since he's made this play. Most of his money is tied up in equity. So who's funding this deal? The fact that this isn't well talked about and that the company is going private is raising a lot of red flags to my eyes

As I understand it, the financing is

$13 billion in money from banks as a loan ~$4 billion in pre-owned Twitter stock (he doesn't have to pay himself) ~$7-8 billion in commitments from other investors (Ellison, a16z, the Bitnance CEO etc.) ~$8-10 billion in TSLA stock he sold in like May when he announced the purchase at $900-$1000/share when he said it was specifically to buy TWTR ~$1 billion in a major investor (I don't recall whether it was a specific Saudi businessman or the Saudi investment fund or the royal family directly) asking to keep his ownership of the company and trade out the shares for teh new compnay shares

That still leaves ~$9-11 billion unaccounted for in a very public fashion. At one point, Merrill had promised him a $12.5 billion margin loan backed by his Tesla shares. He claimed not to need it (and removed it from being a contingency on the deal a while ago). Or maybe he secretly used it. It's less than 5% of his net worth, so it seems reasonable to assume he can get or borrow it easily.

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#159

Post by pmoriarty » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

danjoredd wrote: post #36

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #9

Prediction: Brain drain at Twitter begins as Elon starts enacting unpopular policies. Valuation tanks. Morale becomes non-existent and Twitter slowly starts to fade from existence while competitors begin to fill the void. I give it 3-5 years before it's gone full husk.

Not going to lie, whoever owns it, I have an inner hatred for that hell site. The way I see it, it can go two ways...either Musk somehow manages to actually make the site tolerable, or it dies. Its going to be one or the other...nobody really knows which way yet. Either direction is a win in my eyes though. If it changes for the better: great! If it dies: even better! More social media sites will take its place.

"I have an inner hatred for that hell site"

What do you hate about it?

I've never used it because it always seemed pretty shallow and vapid to me, but I don't have a visceral reaction against it. What am I missing?

Re: Elon Musk owns Twitter: The story so far

#160

Post by kitsunesoba » Fri, Oct 28, 2022, 6:57 PM UTC

sosodev wrote: post #137

mooreds wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. I think he understands that, as indicated by https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585619322239561728 That doesn't sound like someone burning Twitter to the ground. Also, many are acting like Musk has free rein in running the company. Yes and no. Beyond needing employees to actually run the thing, he also has loans to pay back ($13B!) and investors to maintain good relationships with. More on that here: https…

I'm very skeptical of the idea that Twitter can become a place where people discuss things with civility. It seems like the mechanics of the conversation encourage outrage.

On top of that, historically internet forums have required fairly strict moderation to remain civil for any significant amount of time. Without that, one quickly ends up with an incredibly unpleasant space that repels more people than it attracts.