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Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

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Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#151

Post by epolanski »

anhncommenter25 wrote: post #132
pclmulqdq wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, the whole question with FB stock is whether you believe the Metaverse stuff will pay off. I give them worse than even odds, but better than a 10% chance, to be the ones who get it right.

They don't necessarily have to get it right. They just have to be geared up enough to fast follow whoever does get it right, or be an enticing M&A partner. My bellwether is how they respond to TikTok. Now with all that said, I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that VR headsets become as ubiquitous as cell phones. It won't happen until AR. It's like TiVo and Netflix.

point is: vr headsets are barely used by vr headesets owners.

Them being ubiquitous or not doesn't change how inconvenient it is to not have vision of the surroundings. It's also not practical to use them.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#152

Post by jsemrau »

anhncommenter25 wrote: post #132
pclmulqdq wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, the whole question with FB stock is whether you believe the Metaverse stuff will pay off. I give them worse than even odds, but better than a 10% chance, to be the ones who get it right.

They don't necessarily have to get it right. They just have to be geared up enough to fast follow whoever does get it right, or be an enticing M&A partner. My bellwether is how they respond to TikTok. Now with all that said, I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that VR headsets become as ubiquitous as cell phones. It won't happen until AR. It's like TiVo and Netflix.

Exactly. Minecraft, Fortnite, and Roblox have shown that there is customer demand for Metaverse content. I.e., UGC in 3D. If they execute like Microsoft with the XBOX they will succeed in the long run. But it's a long road.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#153

Post by potatolicious »

redwood wrote: post #138
potatolicious wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect a few reasons, some of which are shared by all of the tech companies that over-hired: - Prestige. There are a lot of companies (especially VC funded startups) that have massively over-hired because a large headcount of high-end engineers is a signal to the market (and importantly, VCs) as to your seriousness. - Talent denial to competitors. If you don't want anyone to catch up in a space (say, VR) you can g…

I think another part of it is actually related to how you retain people, the more people you have the more they want to feel they can advance which is made easier by giving more and more people chances to build teams and from there to expand it to ever more specific niches

Agreed. I think there a few key observations I've developed working in BigTech for many years now, that I don't think are necessarily obvious from the outside:

- You retain engineers by giving them money/stock, and by giving them a well-defined system towards advancing within the company. Typically in BigTech advancement into the senior ranks is defined largely by ability to lead major efforts that require significantly-sized teams to build out. You need a steady pipeline of junior engineers in order to keep more senior engineers on the advancement track. Orgs that stop growing have their engineers' career advancements slow/freeze and will eventually suffer attrition for it. If your org isn't growing, it's shrinking.

- You retain management by giving them more reports. Power and influence within the company is largely correlated with the number of people you manage. This is both for stupid signaling reasons, but also for real practical reasons - the more resources a manager has the more they are able to take on initiatives that move their org (and themselves) forward.

Everything from management to IC is aligned around continuously growing orgs. It takes a massive external shock to undo this dynamic.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#154

Post by Zuckeralt »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #62
solarmist wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snarky only comments aren’t in the spirit of HN… That said I laughed out loud to this. I’m not a FB fan because of all the dark patterns. Edit: Added “only”

Quoted post unavailable.

No post body was provided.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#155

Post by [deleted] »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #139
impulser_ wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, they run three of the top five most used applications in the world. I love how people keep saying Facebook is dying, yet TikTok still doesn't have as many active users as Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram. The only application that does is YouTube.

TikTok is the most used app. It has more users than Facebook, WhatsApp, or Instagram. It doesn't have as many users as the sum of the user totals of the three big Meta apps, but WhatsApp users aren't really monetizable, and there is a lot of overlap between FB users and Insta users now.

[deleted]

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#156

Post by georgeecollins »

cm2012 wrote: post #98

I am very bullish on FB: 1) Founder still has majority voting shares, gives a lot more freedom. 2) I think the Metaverse stuff will pay off in the long run 3) They are making the changes necessary to compete with TikTok. I am buying shares now at this price

Bezos, Gates and Jobs all did not have a majority of voting shares and yet they had a lot of freedom because they did a good job. I think Zuckerberg would have the same freedom today without the majority of voting shares-- he's done too good of a job.

But what about ten years from now? What if his wife or kids retain control and act against shareholder interest? Giving different voting rights to share is a terrible idea in the long run.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#157

Post by rossdavidh »

debacle wrote: post #142

I expect Facebook is in a better ARPU position as the ad market continues to implode than Google. I further expect that, as Google becomes more desperate, more users will flock to non-Google products due to the poorer UX on e.g. YouTube. Facebook may have a rough 2022, but I think they will probably be fine.

I'm genuinely curious, why would you think FB is in a better position in the ad market than Google? I find it hard to believe that, if forced to cut one or the other from their ad budget, most companies would choose FB ads over Google. But, perhaps I am missing something?

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#158

Post by mikhmha »

alangibson wrote: post #45

On the metaverse question: does anyone seriously believe Facebook can innovate, let alone build a new industry?

No I doubt it. Why does everyone forget about the “game” portion of the metaverse? You can’t just build it and expect people to join if the underlying game isnt fun. If it’s just some digital hangout spot then that’s boring sorry - been done before and most people don’t care about virtual chat rooms.

I don’t think FB knows how to make games. They know how to make social media platforms and web technologies but making games is it’s own skillset.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#159

Post by zucker_lover »

kart23 wrote: post #126
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #97

Guidance is atrocious. While the misses might not look bad in isolation, the overall picture isn’t looking good. The COO just quit after an extremely successful run, guidance is bad, and worst of all, the planned rebranding to Metaverse has been hijacked by crypto bros shilling ponzis on steroids.

>hijacked by crypto bros shilling ponzis on steroids wat?

It’s actually spelled “what”, fellow kids

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#160

Post by PheonixPharts »

civilized wrote: post #37
pclmulqdq wrote: post #3

Lower revenue than Q2 of 2021 and higher expenses. They're on track to have significantly lower net income this year than last year. Au revoir, Facebook.

At the current rate of year-over-year decline in operating income, they'll be losing money in two short years. Then they'll be as dead as eternal money-losing cash pit Uber. someone whispers in my ear ... correction, I'm being told Uber is still not dead. I know, I know, I'm as confused as you are.

> I'm as confused as you are.

Don't be, for the last decade or so money has been extremely cheap.

For anyone focused on fundamentals many of these companies don't make sense and it all seems eerily similar to the dotcom logic (anyone old enough will remember claims of "new economy" and "things are different"), but for anyone interested in growing their money, spending more than you make while money is essentially free makes a lot of sense.

The thing many people still don't understand is that the era of cheap/free money is coming to an end and there is going to be a lot of reality coming to surprise companies that aren't actually able to become profitable in an era without free money.

This doesn't just impact companies that currently don't make a profit, but those that make their profits from other companies that don't make a profit. How much AWS is paid for by startups that don't make a profit? How much of meta's ad revenue is ad-spend from companies that don't make a profit?

We'll soon be finding out.

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