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ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#151

Post by bavell »

connicpu wrote: post #30
kayodelycaon wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things like this are exactly why I went with less "intelligent" smart thermostat. (Honeywell T9) The only learning feature it has is figuring out how long it takes to heat or cool the house given the current weather. Before a schedule change, can heat or cool the house so it hits next target temperature on time. This seems to work extremely well. Everything else like schedule and away settings are configured by the u…

Building my own thermostat so I have total control was a fun project, I learned a lot about electrical engineering and built a circuit with some TRIACs to control the HVAC lines. Though I still need to give it an interface so I can program it some way other than uploading the program as a JSON blob to my raspberry pi!

This has been on my project list for a long time haha, would you happen to have any blog posts or references for those of us who aspire to do the same?

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#152

Post by wutbrodo »

Melatonic wrote: post #128
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

The problem I think with all of these ML functions is that there is never enough of an in between full manual and full auto magic. The Nest could simply ask you a few times a day how you feel about how its doing (too hot ? too cold? too expensive?) or you could opt in somewhere and to give feedback. And then it could keep doing its behind the scenes mumbo jumbo.

This is more of a product problem than a technological one. I don't think the issue is lack of imagination, but hostility from consumers.

There are a million and one cases where a pdocut could be 10x better with 10% more effort from me,and where that tradeoff is more than worth it (hell, it's why I use Linux). But the average consumer is aggressively turned off by having to do any "work", and the type of person hanging out on Hacker News is very high-percentile for wanting to put a nonzero amount of work into optimizing this type of thing.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#153

Post by 8note »

Melatonic wrote: post #128
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

The problem I think with all of these ML functions is that there is never enough of an in between full manual and full auto magic. The Nest could simply ask you a few times a day how you feel about how its doing (too hot ? too cold? too expensive?) or you could opt in somewhere and to give feedback. And then it could keep doing its behind the scenes mumbo jumbo.

Surely each time I change the temperature manually that's a signal it's been wrong for the past half hour or so

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#155

Post by BonoboIO »

ape4 wrote: post #22

You just bought a washing machine... could I interest you in a washing machine?

Sometimes you want a company like Facebook or google deliver ads to your potential costumer, but you don’t want, that the ad company knows how much product you sold.

You know your ROI, but your ad company doesn‘t.

I heard multiple stories from amazon, that hey still let the ad campaign or targeting running even if you bought the product for random times so external companies could not get insight in your businesses.

If you got the washing machine you will not click to buy another. If you pay per click, it makes no difference how long you let the campaign running if it is targeted.

I work in the ad industry.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#156

Post by cerved »

jsjohnst wrote: post #148
kristopolous wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is an extremely trivial check to add - if you got assigned that ticket, you'd probably point it at like 2 or so hours. However, they've been like this for over a decade so it's likely there intentionally. here's one way that could be possible: There could be some popular third party service that's integrated on many e-commerce sites that sells this information and doesn't actually give a damn if you bought the…

> Which is an extremely trivial check to add - if you got assigned that ticket, you'd probably point it at like 2 or so hours. Yep, totally a 2hr task for an engineer who works on homedepot.com to “check” that you bought a fridge from lowes.com after you first price shopped the other site. Also a two hour task for a Google engineer to know you bought one in person at Best Buy after researching online first. Yes, ther…

not to mention cross-device browsing

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#157

Post by throw__away7391 »

Somehow I have the opposite experience of everyone else on this site?

I frequently get targeted ads for exactly the item I'm interested in, e.g. a pair a shoes that actually look very similar to a pair I was considering but from a different brand.

My YouTube recommendations bring me a ton of new videos on topics I'm interested in. I do a tiny amount of curation, but overall rarely get objectively bad videos recommended.

Amazon recommends consumable products for me at approximately the rate I consume them. When my pet died and I stopped purchasing treats, they seem to have figured that out and stopped recommending them.

The "you just bought a car, would you like to buy another car?" does happen from time to time, but not all that often to be honest.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#158

Post by AlexandrB »

mbesto wrote: post #81
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

I've always heard this, and so when I went for my first smart thermometer I went straight to Ecobee (which I'm very happy with btw). So I gotta ask HN...what the heck was so popular about Nests?! It's one thing to be go after shiny lures like new iPhone apps or luxury items...but a Thermostat?! Mind boggling...

The industrial design of the thing is really nice. I wish someone could/would copy them. I don't use any of the smart features nor do I connect it to the app, but it's still the nicest looking thermostat out there.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#159

Post by BonoboIO »

BonoboIO wrote: post #155
ape4 wrote: post #22

You just bought a washing machine... could I interest you in a washing machine?

Sometimes you want a company like Facebook or google deliver ads to your potential costumer, but you don’t want, that the ad company knows how much product you sold. You know your ROI, but your ad company doesn‘t. I heard multiple stories from amazon, that hey still let the ad campaign or targeting running even if you bought the product for random times so external companies could not get insight in your businesses.…

No post body was provided.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#160

Post by 2c2c2c »

throw__away7391 wrote: post #157

Somehow I have the opposite experience of everyone else on this site? I frequently get targeted ads for exactly the item I'm interested in, e.g. a pair a shoes that actually look very similar to a pair I was considering but from a different brand. My YouTube recommendations bring me a ton of new videos on topics I'm interested in. I do a tiny amount of curation, but overall rarely get objectively bad videos recommend…

My guess is targeted advertising works great up until the point you share your devices with other people. parents and their kids sharing accounts, laptops, tablets leads to a bunch of junk input and this makes up the majority of population
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