He mentions open source and education which I’m really excited about. There’s been a big lack of accessible from-first-principles resources on this (plenty of abstracted libraries though). Now is a great time to build up excitement among amateurs to learn about this stuff imo. (Right near the super cool text-to-image breakthroughs.) It shouldn’t just be openai and google building these things.
Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
151–160 of 441 posts
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#152Earlier quoted context omitted.
If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.
I ended up selling mine because the build quality started getting on my nerves. Misaligned panels that are "within spec" or interior rattles that make the ride completely unpleasant (at only 10k miles). The tech is all right, and I got to try auto pilot at a discount. Unfortunately the phantom braking made AP completely useless with passengers who would freak out and complain. However, when it worked it was quite nic…
It's interesting to see that even customers get Autopilot and Full Self Driving mixed up.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#153Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…
Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…
Zoox has solved it.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…
> Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera lens). Or lane markings that are more than just reflective paint, but can be sensed via RF. Rules around temporary construction that dictate the manner of signage and cone placement that the robot cars can understand. The cones might…
> The problem you then face is that any of those could be forged / faked without some kind of way of securely validating the message in some way. You could cause absolute chaos by driving down the road broadcasting false messages.
Sounds like a job for...blockchain.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
The situation outside the US is even worse for Tesla. There's a whole swathe of great EVs these days from VW (ID.3, ID.4), Renault (Megane, E-2008), Opel (Corsa-e), Volvo (C40, XC40), Ford (Mustang Mach-E), Jaguar (I-PACE), Polestar, BMW (i4, iX), Audi (e-Tron), Mercedes (EQS), Skoda (Enyaq), etc. The range of models is also much wider in terms of affordability. In Europe, we've reached the point where an EV is just…
And still Teslas sell better both in EU & China than all those EVs you mentioned
For now, but they’ll get overtaken next year, perhaps even this year if the trends continue.
For the first 5 months of 2022 there were 500,000 BEVs sold in Europe with Tesla 3 and Y accounting for a little over 60,000. [1]
There is a tidal wave of competing offerings and Tesla will soon be on the sidelines.
[1]: https://insideevs.com/news/594688/europe-plugin-car-sales-ma...
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.
> focus on their incredible cars They have terrible manufacturing quality. The screens melt in Arizona heat. Maybe the ride is cool and feels good, but the car itself is not incredible.
> The screens melt in Arizona heat.
That's a very old talking point about the original Model S screens from ~2012. Do you have any recent justification for this claim?
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#157Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…
The only wait to solve it is to have smart roads. Basically, moving the problem domain from the car to the street.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera lens). Or lane markings that are more than just reflective paint, but can be sensed via RF. Rules around temporary construction that dictate the manner of signage and cone placement that the robot cars can understand. The cones might…
> You could cause absolute chaos by driving down the road broadcasting false messages Even without self-driving cars, an "attacker" can go into a theater and yell "fire" and cause a stampede. They can get a high-viz vest and clipboard, and stand in intersections directing cars to take detours they don't need and holding up traffic. My point here is that society has a lot of trust baked in. We trust people don't just…
Those attacks don't scale. They're also tied to a person or people who need to be physically present, making it possible to arrest them.
The consequences of potential attacks on centrally-orchestrated traffic are a lot more severe. Hack the control node, and you can stop traffic nation-wide. Or cause mass accidents that overwhelm first responders. And they can be executed by anyone, anywhere in the world, for a cost within range of many medium-size corporations (let alone nation states).
I won't comment on the challenges of the approach Tesla et al. are currently taking, but I don't think central control is the panacea commenters in this thread are making it out to be (and I'm personally glad this isn't the route we're pursuing).
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
6. Need to reasonably predict what that human that just made eye contact with you would likely do next, and how that's different from what he might do when he doesn’t make eye contact with you. And all of that differs if you're in NYC or SF or small town, Indiana
7. Need to understand that drunk person staggering along the roadside has been repeatedly slipping off the sidewalk and there's a non-zero chance they trip and fall right in front of you.
This is a dance move known as the "tenderloin lurch". Well, not really, the Tenderloin Lurch is when a person staggers up to a crosswalk, waits until they have a NO WALK sign and proceeds to cross, while ignoring all the drivers who about to run them over.
Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla
#160The autopilot part of Tesla has never made much sense. Is Tesla the electric car company, or is it the luxury car company? Either way, why does the power train (EV or ICE) come into play at all? Not only that, but Tesla has played the Innovator's Dilemma game from the position of the upstart financially, but targeted the segment of the market that incumbents will defend to the death (luxury cars). Tesla could have go…
The incumbents will defend that market segment to their death indeed. Tesla is pulling a 30% gross margin on their EV's, while legacy auto looses money on their EV's. I don't see legacy auto being capable of refactoring their cars, manufacturing processes and business models fast enough to survive. The fall can cascade quickly, as the incumbents are stuffed with debt. When sales of ICE fall due to the growing EV segm…
Hyundai belongs in that group as well.