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Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

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Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#151
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where can I read their points of view? Can you provide some links by any chance?

Safedean Ammous isn't 100 % studied economist. But according to his CV he studied at London School of Economics, also gave economics lectures and was/is assistant professor of economics at Lebanese American University (Beirut). [1] I'd recommend listening to his interview with Lex Fridman. [2] [1] https://capitalism.columbia.edu/files/ccs/person/cv/2015/amm... [2] https://lexfridman.com/saifedean-ammous/

hmm, no government in the world supports his thesis I guess. From what I understand of his position: deflational currency is the best type of currency. Any inflation is bad etc. The reason governments create inflation is to keep population poor and control them I guess?

Putting aside the weird trash-talking of status quo economists, in order to evaluate the correctness of his position, I would have to do way too much homework.

His prediction of human behavior under a deflational currency though does raise some flags. He says people will buy stuff regardless. If know I can use the same money to buy two cars next year instead of buying a car this year, I will not buy a car this year. He seems to say I will.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#152

Bitcoin is the solution to the fundamentally broken debt-driven economy. Critics don't get it because they lump it together with "cryptocurrency". While technically a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin does not exhibit any of the ponzi, scam-like shenanigans that are easily observable in shitcoins. Yes, there is a lot of crazy stuff happening with wash trading - but this is a byproduct of lack of regulation and has nothing to d…

I have a deep understanding of all of the latter. I work in capital markets daily. I do not know anyone serious with my level of experience in the actual markets who thinks bitcoin is the answer. There are several issues with tradFi. Pointing that out is like saying the sun will rise tomorrow. In some cases, people are working on a fix. In other cases, the inefficiency and criminal activity is not ceasing because the…

> The debt driven economy is by design.

People should ask "whose design?" then. Who's the beneficiary of this design?

What do you think is more likely to be true?

A. The wealthy/influencial/powerful/elites use their (disproportionate) power to influence the design of fundamentals of society - such as the monetary system - in a way that benefits/stabilizes their position at the top.

B. The wealthy/influencial/powerful/elites just let the design of fundamentals of society - such as the monetary system - be in whatever way it's shaped by society or political processes.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fincial freedom tool for billions of people, the likes of which do not browse Hacker News. Citation needed (to put it mildly). How is Bitcoin improving on e.g. M-Pesa? Is there much adoption compared to M-Pesa, outside of fantasy? If you're not familiar with M-Pesa, then you don't know this subject at all. > Those people get Bitcoin instantly. https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/jun/17/jay-z-bitcoin-...

Nigeria, just one country, has 34 million crypto users. mpesa has 30. 34 > 30 is that much adoption?

I'll assume that like me, you googled that. So, this is technically correct, but:

30 or 34 m users out of 206m isn't the whole market, not close.

Nigeria is an outlier, with low M-Pesa adoption as:

> The reason why this incredible product (M-Pesa) can’t be replicated in Nigeria with such success is perhaps due to what you and I as Nigerians enjoy today, the Nigerian Interbank Settlement System (NIBSS)

https://nairametrics.com/2017/09/26/why-the-m-pesa-miracle-h...

https://nibss-plc.com.ng/

https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/nigeria-inter-bank-s...

So to sum up, the huge Nigerian domestic market is covered by a SEPA-like product. It's not a bitcoin thing. Omitting that seems intentionally misleading.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't spam email energy usage come in close to 50TWh? That's from memory. Only decent link I can find on this is from 13 years ago with 33TWh: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/20...

And everyone agrees it's waste of time and energy, except actual scammers - spammers, right?

Certainly, but I don't see anyone trying to properly stop it in both cases here?

Amusingly the PoW as we know it in cryptocurrency came from attempts to combat email spam with HashCash, it's clearly referenced in the Bitcoin whitepaper as a precursor.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#155
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Safedean Ammous isn't 100 % studied economist. But according to his CV he studied at London School of Economics, also gave economics lectures and was/is assistant professor of economics at Lebanese American University (Beirut). [1] I'd recommend listening to his interview with Lex Fridman. [2] [1] https://capitalism.columbia.edu/files/ccs/person/cv/2015/amm... [2] https://lexfridman.com/saifedean-ammous/

hmm, no government in the world supports his thesis I guess. From what I understand of his position: deflational currency is the best type of currency. Any inflation is bad etc. The reason governments create inflation is to keep population poor and control them I guess? Putting aside the weird trash-talking of status quo economists, in order to evaluate the correctness of his position, I would have to do way too much…

> The reason governments create inflation is to keep population poor and control them I guess?

When I listened to the interview I didn't hear him say that.

My view on this: governments simply cannot help increasing debt to spend more on whatever purpose they deem right at a certain time. It's simply the easiest way (least opposition from voters) for them to enact their programmes. The only other option (cutting other spending to increase spending on what's current high priority) doesn't get them reelected.

> Putting aside the weird trash-talking of status quo economists ...

Yeah, I admit he does too much of that, not optimal. But that doesn't mean the message is wrong.

> He says people will buy stuff regardless.

You won't? If your car breaks down, you won't let it get fixed right now but next month because it's cheaper? If you're hungry today you'll wait till next week to buy food because it costs 0,005 % less? You'll wait 10 years to fly to Fiji because it'll be cheaper? Oh wow, you must be a special person then.

> If know I can use the same money to buy two cars next year instead of buying a car this year, I will not buy a car this year.

You sure? You just watch everybody drive around? Besides: same money, next year worth 2x is dramatically exaggerated. What are typical gains of efficiency through technological advances? Maybe 5 % per year? I say you're putting up a strawman here. With 5 % deflation you'll have 2x the buying power in ~ 14 years .. you're going to wait this long?

> He seems to say I will.

Nope, as I understood what he says, he just says it somewhat shifts time preference.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say that trustworthy centralized systems are obviously better simply because even today there is no viable alternative to them, but you can clearly see how that is cause for all types of problems. Most times you don't know who exactly you're trusting, and sometimes you are perfectly aware that those trustworthy individuals/companies are anything but that, but you're left no choice but to """trust""" them and hope…

> You say that trustworthy centralized systems are obviously better simply because even today there is no viable alternative to them, but you can clearly see how that is cause for all types of problems. Most times you don't know who exactly you're trusting, and sometimes you are perfectly aware that those trustworthy individuals/companies are anything but that, but you're left no choice but to """trust""" them and ho…

>I agree with you that trust is an open problem, but it's one that I think is getting solved automatically for free by ubiquitous surveillance, if we administer it sanely.

The problem is, who watches the watchmen? And who watches the watchmen who watch the watchmen? And so on, because at some point you have to trust someone not to act maliciously. Not to mention that ubiquitous surveillance is a problem in itself, because again who can we trust to administer it sanely? It all goes back to the same root problem: trust, which is fundamentally incompatible with human nature. The best course of action, IMO, is to do away with it entirely by using trustless systems.

>The advantage of centralization is efficiency.

Exactly! And because of that a certain degree of centralization is pretty much unavoidable, and it's why decentralization is not a silver bullet, and why the answer lies in the middle. A balance has to be found. A purely decentralized system is very slow to develop, maintain and update compared to a centralized solution; because of the glacial pace of development in the space, lots of detractors say that Bitcoin has been around for 10 years and nothing has changed, but I disagree with that! The ecosystem has matured a lot under the hood in these years, but it took a very long time to get to this point compared to what a centralized could do in the same span of time, with a lot of fragmentation and plenty of time spent coordinating actors towards a common goal. It's the complete opposite of "move fast and break things" :D

>Speaking as an open-minded but skeptical outsider, you would have to convince me that the blockchain provides/solves decentralization better than existing alternatives.

The only decentralized solution I see that works and has adoption is just torrents. Maybe git, if you stretch the definition a bit. But I don't see a way to build and deploy websites that doesn't involve blockchain, for example. What are the alternatives? The fediverse? Someone still has to maintain the instances, and once those go down the content is lost. Scuttlebutt seems to fit the bill, but barely anyone uses it.

>Again, not to be a spoilsport, but it sounds like I could do a lot of that with git and some cryptography. Maybe I just don't get it?

Well yes, but you'd just be reinventing web3 with none of the adoption. git can be thought of as a sorta blockchain, and wallets are simply public-key cryptography. The core issue is making it accessible to everyone and then actually getting people to use it, but luckily (and sadly) there is an economic incentive to drive adoption and usage, which is why crypto has experienced an explosive growth in the last years. Without that you're never going to put any kind of dent into the existing centralized systems, anything one would develop would just be a passion project at best. (again, scuttlebutt)

>On that we both agree. This stuff you're describing sounds interesting, and nothing like the scam-fest "crypto" stuff.

It is! I am one of the few who is unironically in it for the technology. Sure, the money would be a nice bonus, but these are shark infested waters so any money I throw in I just consider it a lost gamble. But it's interesting to see what people are building, there's plenty of people chasing stars and impossible pipe dreams, such as a fully decentralized society down to the government, and it's really hard to discern who is a snake oil salesman and who is actually interested in developing whatever they're peddling, but interesting projects do exist. The hard part is wading through the scams, of which crypto is 99% comprised of because of the lack of regulation. Hopefully this crash will cleanse the ecosystem and finally let actually useful projects that aren't just overly complicated financial games to shine through.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#158
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok so I’m going to start making up theories by assuming the second law of thermodynamics is false and we can have infinite free energy.

Do I get this right? You have a rather pessimistic view of the world that leads you to believe that while such tax systems might be possible they allegedly haven't ever been observed in the real world. So you go on to infer that what hasn't been observed is not possible. I think it's a stretch to draw a parallel here to the unyielding character of physical laws. I assume the world has seen reasonable tax systems in t…

I’m not pessimistic. In fact, I definitely think something will disrupt the status quo and it is very corrupt. That’s not the point. I just don’t think your solutions are workable. If you’d told me about btc 10 years ago, I would’ve thought it was a radical attempt at a solution. Now I don’t think it’ll work with the benefit of hindsight. I just think anything in the future that disrupts tradFi will have equally crazy origins.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#159
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do not read idiots like Ammous. I don’t like to restrict people’s reading choices but this is equivalent to reading Deepak Chopra for economics. Between that and someone like Lee Smolin who is also extremely anti establishment, only one of them is an incredibly deep thinker. People’s appearance on Lex Fridman shouldn’t be used as an indicator of anything. He interviews very widely and he does it well. But he isn’t ve…

A comparison of Safedean Ammous to Deepak Chopra isn't useful IMO. Chopra does likely have views on economics but it's not the focus of his work. Ammous' work is about economics. Thus it appears you're merely trying to discredit one person by comparing them to another person whose views (on a totally different topic) are ridiculed/controversial (for potentially legitimate reasons). As to Lee Smolin .. he appears rath…

I wasn’t clear. I should’ve said it is equivalent to reading Deepak Chopra about quantum mechanics or string theory vs reading Lee Smolin. Not economics.

Additionally, imagine why and how someone with an Econ degree who wasn’t very well known became incredibly famous. Enough for Taleb to write a foreword for him (although I suspect that was motivated by their ethnic common origins and less so by the rigor in the book). This is a common grift. Several professors in extremely high end Ivy League universities tried the same tactic. Including that one fucktard from MIT who claimed he’d done simulations for a million years and Terra (or some other coin, I really can’t keep all the scams straight in my head) couldn’t fail no matter what. Same motivation. New shiny thing? Let’s use it to try and increase our social capital. Less erudite crowd? The better.

Re: Bitcoin Is a Hideous Monstrosity Made Out of Computers and Greed

#160
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hmm, no government in the world supports his thesis I guess. From what I understand of his position: deflational currency is the best type of currency. Any inflation is bad etc. The reason governments create inflation is to keep population poor and control them I guess? Putting aside the weird trash-talking of status quo economists, in order to evaluate the correctness of his position, I would have to do way too much…

> The reason governments create inflation is to keep population poor and control them I guess? When I listened to the interview I didn't hear him say that. My view on this: governments simply cannot help increasing debt to spend more on whatever purpose they deem right at a certain time. It's simply the easiest way (least opposition from voters) for them to enact their programmes. The only other option (cutting other…

>If your car breaks down, you won't let it get fixed right now but next month because it's cheaper?

Which car? The one I don't have because I'm saving to buy two next year? You're changing the example I gave into something else entirely. If you're saying that drastically reducing or eliminating the purchase of everything that is not absolutely essential to have won't be bad for the economy, or if it is, it won't be bad for society in the long term -- then say that.

>> If know I can use the same money to buy two cars next year instead of buying a car this year, I will not buy a car this year.

>You sure?

Yes. (I lived someplace where there was a ridiculous price markup for electronic goods. I needed a new phone and laptop but I refused to buy them because of the ridiculous prices. Then the currency crashed a year later and I immediately bought them by exchanging US dollars before they could markup the prices or pause sales. I ended up getting them for less than the US price incidentally. Otherwise I would have waited until the old ones were preventing me from doing essential tasks. This is same for cars.)

"People consume because there's a limitless desire to consume" he says. And when Fridman calls him on it, he says yes well people economize due to constraints no matter what.

>same money, next year worth 2x is dramatically exaggerated.

Well yes that’s the point. aren’t we talking about a bitcoin economy in the end after all? If a transition from fiat to bitcoin standard starts happening, this is the path its going to take until the price stabilizes, no? People doubled their money in half a year in 2021 after all.

EDIT: his odd comment that he is migrating from anarchism towards supporting benign dictatorships doesn't exact endear him either.

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