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I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

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Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#151

Post by dangle1 »

erwincoumans wrote: post #125

Just curious about the "golden window for buying I-bonds" he mentions: what is the benefit of buying ibonds on April 30, 2022 at 7.12% gain versus buying on May 1, 2022 at 9.6% gain?

In this case, the investor will get 6 mos of interest at the 7.12% rate, then later this year will begin a full 6 mo term of interest accumulating at 9.6%

It confused me for awhile until I figured out that different people with different investment dates will have different instantaneous interest rates as a function of their date of investment.

So buying now lets you take advantage of the similarly nice previously set rate, for 6 mos, then another guaranteed (and known) nice rate for another 6 mos.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#152

Post by usrn »

JusticeJuice wrote: post #70
vasco wrote: post #32

The venn diagram of internet users that read about super specific financial products, decide to buy them, while not even understanding the need to keep an emergency fund such that a move like this leaves them with under $200 in their account seems to be growing. It seems to be a weird mix of wall street cosplay and financial ineptitude.

I work in the financial advice industry, and I honestly personally believe current legislation in most countries have truly failed to protect normal people from bad financial advice, despite that being their entire point. The problem is, giving financial advice en-masse is very expensive and risky for a company. You need to ask a lot of questions about the users situation (assets, debt, income, dependants, etc) to ma…

I'm not sure it's possible to protect people from bad financial advice without creating class stratification between those who can actually invest in useful things and those that can't.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#153

Post by cft »

It could be that the email was ambiguous (because the refund amount was not stated in the email) and he'll get back only $10,000 total (only $25 from the first deposit), in which case he's actually purchased $10,000 worth of bonds, but he'd only find this out in 8-10 weeks.

Shoddy software like this undermines general trust in the government.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#154

Post by butlerm »

Ekaros wrote: post #126
butlerm wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there are government agents out there that do that sort of thing as a matter of course, they should be prosecuted without mercy and imprisoned for decades as the criminals they are, if not lined up and shot at dawn.

Nah, prosecutors are in on the game. They don't prosecute their friends and colleagues unless there is big enough media presence or they have something to gain from the process. Usually it is well tied corrupt, nepotistic system with even the judges involved.

If the corruption is deeper that just means more officials deserve to be imprisoned for decades. The only reason not to shoot malicious prosecutors at dawn is we can't be entirely sure we have the right ones. Official malice is a threat more dangerous than an invading army.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#155

Post by prepend »

midasuni wrote: post #46
Blackstone4 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are saying official inflation figures can be manipulated to be below real inflation

Last year internet experts were saying “real” inflation was high because lumber was up X% As of today, Lumber is down 30% year on year. Those same people seem to no longer talk about lumber as it doesn’t suit the narrative.

Well also because there are other factors that are high. Inflation is a basket of many goods. Just because lumber is up or down doesn’t mean inflation, overall, must be up or down.

It’s not a conspiracy in this case or an official narrative. Inflation is high so reporters try to find examples. Instead of lumber, they now talk about groceries or whatever.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#156

Post by Jochim »

oli-g wrote: post #104
jrimbault wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if there's a keylogger installed, why would the same keylogger not take regular screenshots ?

Screenshots wouldn't be of much help. The frequency would need to be almost like a low-fps video recording in order to capture the buttons' pressed state. At that is assuming the state is visually distinct in the first place.

Wouldn't you just need to screenshot on any mouse click/return key event?

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#158

Post by tjoff »

vasco wrote: post #32

The venn diagram of internet users that read about super specific financial products, decide to buy them, while not even understanding the need to keep an emergency fund such that a move like this leaves them with under $200 in their account seems to be growing. It seems to be a weird mix of wall street cosplay and financial ineptitude.

This move was calculated though. With incoming pay he knew that he'd be fine regardless. Sure, another emergency before the payback might suck but likely not catastrophic given the $10k coming back in a few weeks.

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#159

Post by daurnimator »

JusticeJuice wrote: post #87
pmontra wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And often the advice comes out as rather un-opinionated and general, which for most people means it's hard to actually action and put in place I agree with this. It seems that I have to make all the choices myself to shield the company from any responsibility so why should I pay some fee for the advice? No wonders that people get advice from random videos on YouTube or any equivalent source.

I have found there is really good advice out there, it's just in places most people won't look. The first one is books. Go to a book shop, and find a book on personal finances, written by a registered financial advisor in your country, for your country. It'll be long, stuffy, boring as fuck, but you'll likely come away well informed. I think if you're reading HN this would suit. Second one is personal financial advis…

> You should pay them by their time, like you would a doctor. Except it'll cost like $200

I looked into this a couple of months ago. It turns out it costs minimum ~$2,000 here in Australia to get anything that's not "General Advice only".

Re: I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government

#160

Post by dangle1 »

erwincoumans wrote: post #150
gte525u wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really golden. It' just i-bond inflation rates are high at the moment. The bond rates are set per 6 month window - but you get it relative to the purchase date. So if you buy before the last possible day before the rate change date you would get 7.12% (annualized) for 6 months then 9.6% (annualized) for 6 months. If you buy after the rate change, you would get 9.6% (annualized) followed by some yet to be det…

So the undetermined inflation rate for November 2022 has to go down to less than 7.12% (annualized) for that (the April case) to be a real "golden" opportunity? How likely is that?

In my personal calculations, I've been comparing the return from I bonds to CDs. Right now, the I bond provides higher interest than CDs have provided since the 80s.

However, since the I bond term readjusts in 6 mo intervals, it's possible for CD rates to catch up in the next two years as interest rates rise.

So if there is anything 'golden' about the situation, it's the opportunity to (perhaps briefly) receive 80s-era guaranteed interest rates.

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