Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

metaculus.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 419 posts

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#151

Post by sillysaurusx »

imwillofficial wrote: post #103
sillysaurusx wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nuclear reactor was shelled. I saw it live. Doubt it had anything to do with radiation though.

It was not shelled, there was a small firefight involving a training building outside the reactor complex. Shelling means artillery. No artillery was involved. You did not “see the reactor get shelled live.”

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD

Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#152

Post by trhway »

Choco31415 wrote: post #99
bobowzki wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An army marches on its stomach.

I think the question is - is food being mobilized to Ukraine?

anecdotally - yes. We bought and brought some stuff following that https://www.facebook.com/lnyuz/posts/5490539337642083 (drop-off in San Jose, some people order stuff from Amazon with delivery right to there), and while i don't see food among the list of requested item, boxes packed with donated food were pretty prominent there (and even though food wasn't mentioned we actually brought food too - long term packaged high calories low weight, we thought that probably that may be needed too and it happened so, seems like many people do that).

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#153

Post by pmoriarty »

otherme123 wrote: post #104
beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

There was a saying in falling Germany in 1944: "each day our victories are closer to Germany than the previous day". You can follow the bombings, for example: if Kyiv is being shelled (and reported in Russian media), it's not under Russian control. If the shelling last for days, the city is holding. If some city was being shelled, but there are no more news about it, but the news are a nearby and further city is bein…

"It seems the Russian invasion is crawling"

During WW2, the siege of Leningrad lasted 872 days. Ukraine has only been under attack for 13 days.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#154

Post by flir »

jjulius wrote: post #128
q1w2 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are also getting fresh soldiers. I saw a claim from a Canadian vet in Kyiv that 40,000 foreign fighters were already in Kyiv. The Canadian was part of a 500-man exclusively Canadian urban battalion. There was also a report on BBC that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia [1]. I've also been on Telegram channels helping…

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

I hope every single ambassador said "they're on holiday".

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#155

Post by tada131 »

otherme123 wrote: post #146
tada131 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Soviet losses were incomparably bigger than Finland. Is this war the case?

IMHO war isn't a scale of bodies. Each side has a strategic objective(s), and winning/losing should be measured against that. Case in point: Vietnam. uSA and allies lost between 1/3 and 1/2 lifes than the North. And the USA loses were small (60.000 in a total of 1.5 million deaths). But it was a total defeat of the USA because none of the strategic objectives were achieved. Ukraine: strategic objectives are being an…

Perfectly valid standpoint, but USA and Vietnam is not Russia and Ukraine. Geography, culture, history - all of this. We can hardly guess what the hell is in Putin's head and what those plans really were aimed at. We are guessing thoroughly, though.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#156

Post by drcode »

bostonsre wrote: post #64
beepbooptheory wrote: post #57

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

The incident with the nuclear reactors seemed to involve an administrative building, not the reacor(s) themselves (As far as I can tell, hard to determine the truth from my chair in the USA)

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#157

Post by bewaretheirs »

imwillofficial wrote: post #71
bostonsre wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Ghost of Kiev Snake Island Soldiers Dying Heroically Nuclear Reactor Shelled, Radiation Rising

Here's a video showing heavy weapons damage to elevated walkways connecting the reactor buildings, showing damage to what looks to me like wiring conduit running through the walkways.

https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1499799810609668106

The focus of the fighting was elsewhere but some projectiles made it very close to the reactor buildings.

Based on comparing the shot out the window with a look on Google Maps this is between units 2 and 3 of the 6 at the plant

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#158

Post by g8oz »

jcadam wrote: post #106
k__ wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone in power in Russia would see the issue and "remove" him. The replacement could then spin it as being a good replacement and play by the rules of the west.

When has Russia ever had a transfer of power that didn't involve the use of force?

Yeltsin to Putin.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#159

Post by zarker »

Choco31415 wrote: post #99
bobowzki wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An army marches on its stomach.

I think the question is - is food being mobilized to Ukraine?

Anecdotally, I live in Ireland and a number of locals have mobilised to gather food and medicine to send it to Ukraine. Then I came across this article and now think this is happening across the country: https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0308/1285137-ireland-ai...

I wouldn’t be surprise if many other communities in Europe are doing the same. The problem might be getting the aid to the right place.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#160

Post by pmoriarty »

user3939382 wrote: post #113
krastanov wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are conflating media and social media. If any of these stories were picked by something like NYT, it would be "here are some examples of local stories going around to strengthen the morale", never as "truth". Actually, even reddit comments were generally "I know the Ghost is made up, it would be silly to believe it, but gosh, it is a good story". Moreover, the radiation in Chernobil did rise (measurably,…

> you are conflating media and social media https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie... https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-snake-island-soldiers-russi... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-sold... https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/russia-ukrai... I could go on, but you get the point. These were definitely fake stories propagated by the western media as part of thei…

Every one of the stories you link make it clear that the reports came from Ukranian sources.

Nowhere in these stories do the news outlets claim that the Ukranian reports were independently verified.

So I'm not sure what you're complaining about. These news outlets are reporting what Ukranian sources say, just as they report what Russian sources say.

Post reply on HN