Paintmakers are running out of the color blue • Hacker News Board

Re: Paintmakers are running out of the color blue

#151

Post by brigandish » Sun, Oct 24, 2021, 11:48 AM UTC

bellyfullofbac wrote: post #142

brigandish wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The scientific literature says the vaccinated have lower viral load and are less infectious It appears that is not necessarily the case[1]: > In July 2021, following multiple large public events in a Barnstable County, Massachusetts, town, 469 COVID-19 cases were identified among Massachusetts residents who had traveled to the town during July 3–17; 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated persons. Testing identified…

I don't think that study disproves my statement, the study didn't/couldn't see viral load or infectiousness. I wonder how many more would've been sick without the vaccine. There were 469 cases, but how many showed up to those events? Reading the study further, 4 vaxed people (and 1 unvaxed) were hospitalized and there were 0 deaths. I'd say a great result for the vaccine, but to be objective we'd have to see how it'd…

> I don't think that study disproves my statement, the study didn't/couldn't see viral load or infectiousness.

They were using a measure called Ct cutoff, which (if used that way) is a crude measure of viral load, as the CDC points out in its own literature[1]:

> Since Ct values can vary based on many factors, it is not a good indicator of how infectious a person is or how much virus is present in a person (known as viral load).

However, it also points out in the sentence prior:

> It is still unknown how much virus is needed to transmit the virus from person-to-person and cause new infections.

What no longer needs to be ascertained is how this data has been interpreted by the experts, which is that the vaccines do not confer much, if any, advantage against transmission. There was the hope before the vaccines came out that they might but it was pointed out repeatedly that it would be unlikely given the nature of coronaviruses, and that has come to be the case.

> if hospitals are no longer overwhelmed (since people aren't getting very sick and dying) then the governments will probably drop restrictions

I hate to repeat myself, but the examples of Israel and the UK should also remind you that it is mere hope you are expressing, not anything borne out by experience. I hope you are right but my experience of people and how loathe they are to relinquish power - especially people who seek it, like politicians - tempers that somewhat.

[1] https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/cedep/nov...

Re: Paintmakers are running out of the color blue

#152

Post by anticodon » Sun, Oct 24, 2021, 3:25 PM UTC

sokoloff wrote: post #109

anticodon wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is all momentary situation caused by the pandemic Very unlikely. 2020 was beginning of a super crisis caused by several reasons: 1) Depletion of fossil fuels which are used to produce consumer goods, e.g. to heat factories and provide electricity for the factory machines. Also fossil fuels are used to transport produced goods around half of the world. It was all possible due to abundant and cheap energy. But t…

What evidence is there that fossil fuels were suddenly depleted for cause 1? Isn’t cause 2 basically agreeing “it was the pandemic”?

They were not depleted suddenly. Cost of extracting oil and gas is steadily rising. This will soon lead to a situation where there's still enough oil in the Earth, but it's unviable to extract it because you have to invest more energy to extract it than you can receive from burning the extracted oil.

We're almost there. E.g. in Russia all new oil deposits found in recent years are in polar areas where extracting is difficult and expensive.

2. It is amazing how beginning of the super crisis coincided with the pandemia. I remember that in the beginning of the 2019 I said to several of my friends that huge crisis will hit the world at the end of the year. But I couldn't even imagine what would happen in the beginning of 2020.

Anyway, governments would want to get rid of extra mouths, especially young people with lots of energy but no way to put it into something productive.

It's especially clear when you start noticing that NATO forces are concentrating near Russian borders and amount of NATO military exercises on Russian borders has increased several times.

Russia has a big population and huge amounts of mineral resources. If NATO manages to capture Russian territory and exterminate most of the population in the process, it would give maybe 10-50 more years for Europe to adapt (e.g. build thermonuclear or some viable green energy sources), because currently Russia uses much of oil and gas and other resources for its own consumption.

There're other countries that could be the next potential targets. Two birds with one stone: turn young people who can't find a place in life into war into cannon fodder and potentially capture resources to extend the agony of the over-consuming economy.

Re: Paintmakers are running out of the color blue

#153

Post by blix » Sun, Oct 24, 2021, 7:31 PM UTC

yunohn wrote: post #150

blix wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is our last pandemic. Really the modern globalized era is a vanishingly small slice of human history. Ancient societies were often wiped out by unexpected events. I would not bet that nothing unexpected will ever happen again. On the contrary, the relatively consistent climate that has sustained literally all of human civilization is changing at an unprecedented rate. I expect frequent major challe…

> If you want to experience this first hand try living paycheck-to-paycheck. I'd rather pay more and consume less I don’t understand how you can have these statements side by side… Price increases by hoarding will affect the poor the most.

So do price increases from supply chain shocks. And if you've ever lived paycheck-to-paycheck, you understand that even minor shocks get balloon out of control very quickly because resources are so tightly allocated.

We are just now living through an era where a relatively minor shock is going to have severe implications last several years (which have and will continue to hit the poorest the hardest). This is what happens when you allocate resources too tightly without sufficient slack.