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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#151
post #31
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto is a speculative asset. It was made and promoted itself as money but failed completely in that aspect.

Except Monero. Funnily enough, Monero is the crypto that failed as speculative asset.

Freicoin was invented earlier and died faster than any other cryptocurrency. In my opinion the idea of an anti speculation cryptocurrency failing is exposing the entire cryptocurrency space for what it is: gambling.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#152
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is To see its value, I don't need to make an effort to understand what a pear is, or a bar of gold, or a house. I and others have looked at Bitcoin, and its trillion dollar market cap (which means Bitcoins are worth more than JP Morgan Chase and Johnson and Johnson put together) and realized it has absolutely no value. At least subprime mortgages, 1999…

You use the word "value" in this comment to mean something different than the market price, but the definition isn't obvious to me. Maybe it's your personal values?

It's called utility and it's the reason why we buy anything.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You use the word "value" in this comment to mean something different than the market price, but the definition isn't obvious to me. Maybe it's your personal values?

It's called utility and it's the reason why we buy anything.

What's the utility of paper money?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#154
post #145
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

-25% flash crash when there is a minor economic event (if even that). What happens when there is a major 2008 style economic event? What happens when billions in BTC need to be sold in a day because a large entity needs to cover their margin call? Crypto has no floor.

Coinbase has the most active USD trading against BTC. Total volume runs from $300 million to about $1 billion. And that’s both buying and selling, it isn’t liquidation. So yes, good question indeed. $27 million in selling is expected to drop the price by 2% says Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/coinbase-exchange/

Is that before or after the 95% wash trade ratio?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#155
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Why does that surprise you? As the article from this discussion shows, there is strong evidence supporting the idea that crypto in general "it's just a big scheme".

Those of us who have been here for a long time heard this story plenty of times before. Ah, but this time it's different? Distributed technology eats everything.

> Those of us who have been here for a long time heard this story plenty of times before.

Getting into a pyramid scheme early does not grant anyone any special insight onto how it is not a pyramid scheme. All they get is the benefits from getting in early, confirmation bias, and an irrational belief that not only past performance guarantees future results but also there is absolutely no growth ceiling.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#156
post #55
post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

I became convinced that NFTs are worth something after understanding that there is little difference between an outrageously expensive watch and a rare NFT. One shows off your wealth in person, the other will let you show it off online.

This would make sense if collectors weren't hiding behind pseudonyms such as "@crypto888crypto" and "@7Surfer7Silver7".

Hint: it's not about status. It's about pumping the price of eth.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#157
The problem with shorting in bubbles is you don’t know when they will pop. As Maynard Keynes famously said, markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.

And given enough time for irrational price levitation, something else can fill the bubble void and the price justifiable at some level. Maybe you short BTC at $30k. It then goes to $300k. You’re licking your wounds but anticipating the drop back down to 0. Except somehow price snaps back to $45k and you’re still a loser.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#158
post #148
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except you can't, practically speaking--as the price is baked into the "brand".

But you’d get twitter verification. Or will twitter only recognize one chain for NFTs? How do you handle someone minting multiple nfts of the same image on different chains?

Twitter, if they build their verification correctly, should determine NFT's sovereignty via the smart contracts, not the chains. Thus, CryptoPunks will only exist on one chain & one smart contract.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#159
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh but NFTs have a very clear value proposition: money laundering. They literally have no value other than what is attributed to them, so if you want to clean up some money you just have to buy an NFT with legit money for X, then sell it to yourself using less-than-legit money. Now you own all legit money, and have only spent some minor transaction fees.

Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious. But thank you, that’s the most concise explanation I’ve seen for exactly how people could use NFTs to launder money. If this is happening, would you expect to see a bunch of NFTs go from nothing, then sell for a large amount, then not move again? Oh also I think you’d also have to declare capital gains tax to do it properly, but that’s better than laundering money…

> Will that really work long run? It seems too obvious.

it is supposedly something that happens often with physical art, and there have been a lot of attempts to prevent it via regulation, e.g. the AML Standards for Art Market Operators[0].

In crypto space as usual we're at the "frontier" state where lack of regulations allow shady behaviours, and they will until the authorities catch up and crypto becomes "normalized".

[0] "Once purchased, the art can disappear from view for years, even decades." https://www.moneylaunderingnews.com/2019/03/art-and-money-la...

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#160
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those of us who have been here for a long time heard this story plenty of times before. Ah, but this time it's different? Distributed technology eats everything.

> Those of us who have been here for a long time heard this story plenty of times before. Getting into a pyramid scheme early does not grant anyone any special insight onto how it is not a pyramid scheme. All they get is the benefits from getting in early, confirmation bias, and an irrational belief that not only past performance guarantees future results but also there is absolutely no growth ceiling.

I would love to be in a pyramid scheme where people keep sending me money.

But that is not the case with crypto is it.

Maybe take a look what pyramid schemes really look like. Here is the wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_scheme

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