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Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

reuters.com

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Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#151

Post by SavantIdiot »

icoder wrote: post #115
SavantIdiot wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I still think it is revolutionary technology that may well revolutionise things in 5-10 or 50 years, who knows. If there's one thing I love most about the technology behind bitcoin, it is the permanent, public, unalterable ledger of every purchase I've ever made and every purchase I'll every make, and who I gave the money to. I'm super excited about the complete lack of personal financial privacy that Bitcoin's blo…

It's a bit more nuanced isn't it (or am I mistaken)? All you see in the ledgers is the (hopefully single use) addresses the money is sent to, plus all addresses that come after it. There's not much in the system itself that links people / organisations to addresses, right? You'll have to get that information from outside the system: you know yourself, and maybe the receiver as a person, but where it then ends up requ…

"We've killed people based on metadata" - Former USA CIA director. [1]

It really isn't that nuanced at all for Bitcoin. If I know your wallet I can see all of your transactions. Period. And if you want to trade money with me, you need to give me your wallet. Once I find it, thought, it is game over. [2]

There are "tumblers" that attempt to obfuscate the chain by turning one transaction into millions of little ones, but it is just a matter of tree search to reconstruct.

[1] https://www.rt.com/usa/158460-cia-director-metadata-kill-peo...

[2] https://www.blockchain.com/explorer

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#152

Post by paulpauper »

dogman144 wrote: post #143
paulpauper wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would only be true if bitcoin technology were protected by IP, which it is not. new coins effectively dilute existing holders of btc

As the supply is fixed, this is a very illogical take.

alt coins. BTC dominace used to be 90%+. now way lower . BTC holders get no royalties from blockchain being copied

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#153

Post by patwolf »

I've been trading Bitcoin for several years and have gone through the various booms and busts of that time. I'm not sure I'm ready to call this a crash when it's back to where it was a few months ago.

The idea of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is addictive, but there's always the sobering moment when you realize how limiting it is. I tried to transfer some a few months ago and was hit with $25 in transaction fees, and it took over 3 days to be confirmed. Clearly I should have used higher fees to expedite it, but I sympathize with newer investors experiencing that for the first time. I've also seen folks recently invest in mining rigs only to realize they're not as profitable as they anticipated.

I'm sure in time prices will back up as the cycle will repeat itself--the hype will die down, Musk will tweet something that inspires the next generation to jump on the bandwagon, and the price will rise again. Maybe we'll lament not buying while it was under 100k.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#154

Post by woeirua »

End_the_Fed wrote: post #44

This is what a healthy market looks like, without circuit breakers, without Powell stepping in, without the POTUS making emergency statements to contain the panic. Price discovery at its finest. When you buy crypto you are effectively voting with your wallet against the Fed and all those phony protection systems Every day more and more people are understanding the machinations of the Fed. BTFD

Let’s see you stick to your guns when BTC loses 95% of its value in a week.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#155

Post by jasonlaramburu »

jmacd wrote: post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

I wonder what % of our Economic stimulus was used to buy crypto, and how much of that money has simply disappeared over the past 24 hours.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#156

Post by acdha »

icoder wrote: post #115
SavantIdiot wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I still think it is revolutionary technology that may well revolutionise things in 5-10 or 50 years, who knows. If there's one thing I love most about the technology behind bitcoin, it is the permanent, public, unalterable ledger of every purchase I've ever made and every purchase I'll every make, and who I gave the money to. I'm super excited about the complete lack of personal financial privacy that Bitcoin's blo…

It's a bit more nuanced isn't it (or am I mistaken)? All you see in the ledgers is the (hopefully single use) addresses the money is sent to, plus all addresses that come after it. There's not much in the system itself that links people / organisations to addresses, right? You'll have to get that information from outside the system: you know yourself, and maybe the receiver as a person, but where it then ends up requ…

The problem is that it's global and irrevocable: mistakes and intentional linkages act as a ratchet increasingly deanonymizing the network over time. If it started to have real usage, you'd quickly see the equivalent of the credit card / scoring companies, Google, etc. paying merchants for transaction details and building a web of user information.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#157

Post by SavantIdiot »

SilasX wrote: post #150
SavantIdiot wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SPY is up 50% since 2019 (pre covid crash). As someone partially invested in index ETFs, this worries me. Index funds aren't supposed to be nitro, they are supposed to be slow and plodding, and 10% annual is supposed to be huge. I think major indices should be nice, slow, inertial gains from ~6-7% annual, tops. Why? When at any point as an engineer or a scientist have you observed large exponential growth to be susta…

>SPY is up 100% since 2019 (pre covid crash). Wait, what? I don't see SPY below 250 for all of 2019. A 100% gain would be 500, but it's 406 now. (Its 2020 nadir was ~228, but it's still not up 100% from that.) https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA?window=5Y

Ah sh^t, you are right: I was looking at $258 and said 258 * 1.5 = ~400, and that is ~50%... but not 100%. Edited! Thanks!

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#158

Post by dcolkitt »

blfr wrote: post #27

Coinbase is down for me. Gotta give it to BTC: it's a great store of value. You cannot sell it in panic, the technology is protecting you from your own psychology.

> You cannot sell it in panic, the technology is protecting you from your own psychology.

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I honestly believe this is the reason owner occupied housing is a more reliable form of middle class wealth accumulation than liquid financial assets. Most of our risk aversion is psychological, rather than economic. We really dislike seeing red numbers, even if our investment horizons make day-to-day swings largely irrelevant.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#159

Post by argvargc »

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #87
kjakm wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with no real opinion on crypto the arrogant stupidity of the anti-crypto crowd (really prevalent on HN) is also quite tiring.

For me, it's because the hype isn't around the technology (which is the interesting part and for the most part, why we're on HN), it's around the speculation. From the outside, looks like a bunch of gamblers constantly getting each other off on whether their bets will make them millionares. It's just...sad...at a level.

Yes. And I'd add the "hype" around speculation works both ways, coming from mainly from two camps:

- those who care only about making money

- those who care only about seeing crypto fail

OTOH, the excitement and bustling activity around the actual technology is largely ignored by the mainstream media, and seems also conspicuously-absent here.

Many are not aware such a vibrant developmental ecosystem - with altruistic and exploratory goals far removed from a demented push to "make money" - even exists.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#160

Post by Theodores »

bogota wrote: post #129
jmacd wrote: post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

You can criticize crypto currency’s for a lot but I still have never seen a good argument for it being a ponzi scheme. Can someone further this argument to one that wouldn't cover every investment asset?

Abductive reasoning:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_test

So you have the non-existent assets, bag holding, difficulty getting out and the promise of above average returns.

If I put my money into my saving account then I can get out at a clearly stated time, there is no expectation apart from very little interest and I am reasonably sure that the government will bail out the bank if the bank fails.

In between there are a spectrum of investment options, property is a good investment asset and you actually have a property made from things like bricks and glass as the 'store of wealth'. Yes it might be difficult to get out if there is a property crash. But it is not a ponzi scheme even if it has some characteristics of one.

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