Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 511 posts

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#151

Post by kragen »

giardini wrote: post #121
kragen wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The PRC is a nuclear power. In the event of a full-blown war there will be no fabs in the US, foreign-owned or otherwise.

Do you really believe China has enough nukes to take out most of the USA's infrastructure? Fab facilities would be waaaay down the list of targets. China's goal has been to maintain a nuclear deterrent (make it not worthwhile to strike China) rather than an offensive capability. if nukes flew then China would likely fragment into many separate countries: its centralized command structure would be destroyed and local…

The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop up the leftovers.

It's hard to tell what you intend by your DDG link, but perhaps you are suggesting that, in the case of nuclear war, China will effectively revert to the Warring States Period of 2500 years ago. Is that really your intention? What would the US look like if it were returned to 2500 years ago, before the rise of the Anasazi and the Mound Builders, before the Olmec invented writing? A much more likely outcome than this sort of quasi time travel is that either a post-nuclear US or a post-nuclear China would look like nothing ever seen before in human history, more closely resembling the world in the immediate aftermath of the Chicxulub impact.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#152

Post by kragen »

refenestrator wrote: post #135
kragen wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, the US has been aggressively escalating the TSMC conflict with targeted attacks on the PRC's nuclear and supercomputing capabilities: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-... and semiconductor fabrication has been a key technology for several five-year plans. So the PRC's patience may run out sooner than you think.

Way better ROI to invest in more capabilities than engage in a zero-sum conflict which will inevitably trash the fabs in Taiwan anyways. Those trade restrictions just galvanize the Chinese to develop the capabilities themselves. And their system doesn't create a need for a big splashy foreign conflict to sell to the hogs for votes. They're more capable of making the smart play than we are.

Chinese reunification seems unlikely to trash the fabs in Taiwan.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#153

Post by nwiswell »

rsj_hn wrote: post #126
irrational wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would think the western suburbs of Portland would be more attractive. Intel has 5 huge fabrication plants in the Aloha/Hillsboro area. That is a large talent base to hire for the plant.

From the article, Taiwan's estimation of the U.S. talent base is rather low: '"TSMC chairman and founder Morris Chang warned last month of higher operating costs and a thin talent pool for the U.S. plans in a rare public speech attended by Wei and chairman Mark Liu. "In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers," Chang said. He warned that "short-ter…

> In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers

What does this even mean? That US engineers expect benefits and work-life balance?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#154

Post by atweiden »

epistasis wrote: post #128
neonological wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>California is extremely entrepreneur-friendly, and have absolutely massive amounts of business compare to Arizona or Texas. I don't know if you've been following the news lately of a bunch of companies moving OUT of California to Texas. One of these people is Elon Musk. And guess what? I have a source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ez90rXhMWjE I'm not saying California is wrong. Far from it. They're right. These l…

The idea that California could become an economic wasteland is absolutely preposterous. It does have its problems: costs are high and there's extreme inequality (because of the nation's worst land taxation and land use policies combined, read your Henry George folks). But these problems are because of its extreme prosperity and economic potential, not because there is any risk of that economic powerhouse stopping. Th…

> The idea that California could become an economic wasteland is absolutely preposterous. It does have its problems: costs are high and there's extreme inequality (because of the nation's worst land taxation and land use policies combined, read your Henry George folks).

The wild housing market is 90% of the inequality. The other 90% can be summed up by this 1994 article in the New York Times [1].

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/1994/10/16/books/what-is-intelligenc...

[1]: https://www.nytimes3xbfgragh.onion/1994/10/16/books/what-is-...

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#155

Post by adrianN »

jeeeb wrote: post #86
jimmcslim wrote: post #17

I’m dismayed that Australia isn’t doing more to foster local fabs.

Australia is a relatively small market located far from global supply chains with relatively high energy, capital and labour costs. I think we need to be selective about which industries we promote, especially if the industry will only be viable with large government subsidies.

If I were an energy intensive industry wanting to set up shop in Australia, I'd simply slap a bunch of solar panels and batteries on my multi-billion-dollar fab.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#156

Post by zaroth »

29athrowaway wrote: post #113
nradov wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nanny states are far worse than tobacco.

Before "nanny state" regulations, food used to be sold in a decomposed or rotten state, it was exposed to all sorts of contamination and merchants mixed it with all sorts of non-food such as wood. Having weird digestive illnesses was very common back in the day, as well as dying from them. Before "nanny state" regulations, you would work as much as your employer wanted you to work, you had no sick days, no vacation,…

That things are better than they were is not particularly strong evidence supporting the “nanny state”.

I absolutely agree we are better off now than 100 years ago.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#157

Post by ChuckMcM »

Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward.

If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors.

High hopes but low expectations. Real estate in AZ could be a good investment though.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#158

Post by MangoCoffee »

its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years.

the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive then my father. I hope I get to see it before I die". a lot of Taiwanese already numb to the threat.

did South Korea stop everything whenever North Korea did a Nuke test?

American can throw ton of money into the semis industry like China big fund. maybe throw money at Intel, free money to companies like TSMC or Samsung to setup more fabs in the US or throw money at a home grown semis foundry?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#159

Post by mr_toad »

philliphaydon wrote: post #75
snskzbs wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The day this is even seriously proposed, China invades Taiwan. And anyway, the vast majority of Americans wouldn't see and attack of a Taiwanese US state as a Pearl Harbor because its non sensical. Taiwan has 100 million people. Theres no way that population transfers to create the bonds necessary to make Taiwan “American” could occur. Hawaii had been a US colony for 50 years and mainland Americans had moved in displ…

> Taiwan is Chinese. Their family bonds are deep, and they share a common language and culture. The ancestor shrines for most Taiwanese (being refugees from the mainland) are in China. Taiwan and Taiwanese people don’t feel this way at all.

From what I’ve read, some of them do and some don’t. Some Taiwanese still claim to be the legitimate Chinese government (in exile). Others would rather remain independent.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#160

Post by musingsole »

kragen wrote: post #151
giardini wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really believe China has enough nukes to take out most of the USA's infrastructure? Fab facilities would be waaaay down the list of targets. China's goal has been to maintain a nuclear deterrent (make it not worthwhile to strike China) rather than an offensive capability. if nukes flew then China would likely fragment into many separate countries: its centralized command structure would be destroyed and local…

The PRC is estimated to have some 350 warheads, enough to land one or two on every US city of 100k population or more, killing about a third of the population. That's not nearly enough to prevent a retaliatory strike, but it seems like a fairly effective deterrent, and Intel's and TI's US fabs would definitely be out of commission, even if they weren't targets, until after the Mexican Army or whoever moved in to mop…

You cripple your argument with your own. The US can't return to a 2500 year old structure; it's not old enough to have that history.

Which is a strength. China has further to fall than the US. That old history is still history. The US would cobble together into something more reminiscent of something later into history by virtue of a shorter memory span...whether or not that is beneficial in this hypothetical future is a different question.

Post reply on HN