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Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

theintercept.com

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Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#151

Post by whimsicalism »

TheGuyWhoCodes wrote: post #41
everdrive wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. It's not clear that they could actually deliver a nuclear weapon, of course. And certainly not all the way to America.

It doesn't have to be on a warhead but smuggled somehow. It would certainly be traced back to them so I don't think they will ever target America directly.

? Target anyone at all with a nuke and you are getting invaded by an international coalition at minimum and quite likely nuked yourself.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#152

Post by raverbashing »

monocasa wrote: post #6

This makes you wonder if we might see a resurgence in old school control systems without processors, and def no networks. The Manhattan project was able uranium purified to get a bomb working without PLCs and networks. All else being equal it's more expensive, but not compared to being unable to keep your network safe from attack. You need to reconfigure the line? Send eight techs down one by one to set new parameter…

You can have low powered processors running the show, it's probably very feasible. Or even analog control is doable.

"Kids these days etc."

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#153

Post by ckozlowski »

klyrs wrote: post #88
nullserver wrote: post #19

Israel is fighting for its existence. Iran leadership routinely makes threats to destroy America and Israel. This often get ignored or dismissed. But like waving a gun in a cops face. Well bad things happen. One nuke will piss America off. One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. From Israel standpoint the logical step is to bomb Iran military into the Stone Age.…

> One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. What? How big of a nuke do you think they can deliver? Tsar Bomba could take out a major city, and had a blast radius roughly comparable with Tel Aviv. This is horrific to even contemplate; I've got friends who live there. But it's nowhere even close to the entirety of Israel; and you can bet your ass that their nukes are…

> How big of a nuke do you think they can deliver?

Agreed. This is the key phrase here. "Deliver". Building a nuclear weapon is only part of the equation. Delivering it such that it gets somewhere that evades defenses and detonates in a place and manner in which it's effective is hard.

Tsar Bomba, since it was mentioned, was an impressive device, but utterly impractical as a weapon. It was of enormous weight and required unreasonable engineering just to drop it.

You're also quite right in that nuclear weapons, while powerful, are not necessarily the "end all" that they're often made out to be. Israel's geography does complicate this somewhat; there's little strategic depth and much of the population is concentrated along the coast which makes the impacts disproportionately larger against Israeli national assets.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#154

Post by throwaway743 »

yongjik wrote: post #80
nullserver wrote: post #19

Israel is fighting for its existence. Iran leadership routinely makes threats to destroy America and Israel. This often get ignored or dismissed. But like waving a gun in a cops face. Well bad things happen. One nuke will piss America off. One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. From Israel standpoint the logical step is to bomb Iran military into the Stone Age.…

> One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. Area of Hiroshima: 350.1 square miles Area of Israel: 8,019 square miles Yeah I'd say [citation needed] for that. > From Israel standpoint the logical step is to bomb Iran military into the Stone Age. This really isn't helping you, because if you're an Iranian and your government says "That country over there says their o…

Depends on yield. Doesn't seem like any nuke used/tested had a yield higher than the Tsar Bomba. Not sure about untested/unused stockpile.

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Doesn't look like even that would wipe out Israel in one go

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#155

Post by Someone »

nullserver wrote: post #19

Israel is fighting for its existence. Iran leadership routinely makes threats to destroy America and Israel. This often get ignored or dismissed. But like waving a gun in a cops face. Well bad things happen. One nuke will piss America off. One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. From Israel standpoint the logical step is to bomb Iran military into the Stone Age.…

> Iran leadership routinely makes threats to destroy America and Israel

So do North Korea and used to do Cuba. For at least some part, that’s for internal politics. Also, it’s typically the weaker party that makes such explicit threats (if the weaker party knows they’re the weaker one, the stronger party doesn’t need to be so explicit)

> One nuke will piss America off.

> One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely.

One nuke on Israel likely will piss America off, too, and rapidly will lead to the end of the Iranian regime.

I think Iran won’t launch a nuke at Israel because they know that, even if Israel cannot retaliate, the USA will.

Some people say Iran, having seen what happened to Iraq, simply wants to have the deterrent of nuclear weapons, just as Israel does. I think there’s at least some truth in that.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#156

Post by Daho0n »

myth_drannon wrote: post #96
Daho0n wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If much of the world wants you dead (your words, not mine) then maybe it's time to look in a mirror. Edit: HN commenters are so thick. First of all GP says everyone hate Israel. So that must include you the reader of this comment. If you actually take that shit serious and then have a problem with my comment instead all I can say is that you should look in a mirror too. It's a fat lie. Not everyone hates Israel. Actu…

Right... , blacks in US also should look in the mirror. All the police brutality, racism is all their fault. Dont you get it? /s

Woooooosh.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#157

Post by whimsicalism »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #79
pcbro141 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing an Iranian. From articles I've read, it sounds like Mossad has a huge network of ethnic Iranian agents carrying out the ground work in Iran. This stuff is fascinating indeed. Here's a good read for you: https://archive.ph/uG9Lu https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/politics/iran-israel-m... How Israel, in Dark of Night, Torched Its Way to Iran’s Nuclear Secrets > The Mossad agents moving in on a warehous…

Thanks so much! I was just reading https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/revealed-how-a-secret-du... which says the same thing: an Iranian mole was crucial for Stuxnet, smuggling a USB stick into the airgapped facility. I wonder what the calculus is like on whether to be an Iranian mole. Either the Israelis were blackmailing them into cooperating, or they're offering some very lucrative rewards, or the Iranian is doing…

The US, at least, is very good at cultivating a lot of HUMINT just by offering massive rewards &/or relocation+citizenship for your family.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#158

Post by everdrive »

TheGuyWhoCodes wrote: post #41
everdrive wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>One nuke and Israel will just be gone, completely. Iran is probably capable of this, or close. It's not clear that they could actually deliver a nuclear weapon, of course. And certainly not all the way to America.

It doesn't have to be on a warhead but smuggled somehow. It would certainly be traced back to them so I don't think they will ever target America directly.

While this is possible, it's clear that this would be a deterrence first. The point would be that minor strikes or political actions would not have a much higher cost. For example, North Korea does not want to nuke the US. They want to possess nukes such that US actions are more constrained. It's a very unfortunate incentive.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#159

Post by hoka-one-one »

mvzvm wrote: post #72
hoka-one-one wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think would happen if the US and all of Europe completely pulled out of the Middle East? Would Israel stay the size it is now? If not, can you really say it's "purely defensive"?

I am not sure what you are implying. Can you elaborate? Are you saying Israel would go attack its neighbors and seize land? From Egypt? Jordan? Lebanon? If so, that's an absurd proposition with absolutely no geopolitical data points to back it.

I don't think it's too absurd to imply that a country would expand into weaker neighboring countries if it could. One example where the US has intervened is Egypt -- without the US the Sinai Peninsula would surely be part of Israel right now. So yes I'd say it would seize land from Egypt, as it already has.

Re: Israel may have destroyed Iranian centrifuges simply by cutting power

#160

Post by CivBase »

wefarrell wrote: post #144
refenestrator wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no indication that Iran is any less deterrable than every other nuclear power. We didn't start WWIII when Kruschev banged his shoe at the UN like a maniac, it would also be a bad idea to do it over Iran's posturing. The US killed their national hero last year and we got a measured, proportionate response rather than lighting Iraq on fire. Trying to pre-emptively "bomb Iran into the stone age" would not only b…

First we feared the godless communists having the bomb because they were not held to a higher moral authority. Now we fear the theocratic muslims because their fanaticism is stronger than their sense of self preservation. It turns out this is all propaganda, no state is keen on destroying the world, and it's entirely rational for a country under constant threat like Iran (or Israel) to want nuclear weapons.

> it's entirely rational for a country under constant threat like Iran (or Israel) to want nuclear weapons.

No, it's really not. It's akin to citizens wanting to walk around with ARs in case they need to defend themselves. No, worse, because at least an AR wont annihilate everyone around you after you're already dead.

The value in having nuclear weapons is the threat that you could spitefully take your opponents out with you. The danger in having nuclear weapons is that some day it could actually happen.

Mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent. It's an eventuality - one which we should be vigilantly protecting against.

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