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Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#151

Post by ogre_codes »

mlyle wrote: post #102
ogre_codes wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To fix that, you need significant overprovisioning or alternate means of generation. They have alternate means of generation... natural gas. There is a big problem with wells shutting down due to the same extremes which shut down wind. Which has caused shortages of natural gas which is doubly problematic because it's also used extensively for heating. What do you do when your backup power is vulnerable to the same…

> It is arguably a fantastic example of where nuclear power excels. Particularly if you had a nuclear plant which ran well below capacity most of the time and ramped up when we have extreme needs. Right now that's awful, because most of the cost of nuclear plants is the capital costs. Paying a bunch of depreciation on something you don't use 24/7 is dubious. Also nuclear tends not to ramp very quickly. I'm pro-nuclea…

I should have stuck to my main point which is that they actually did have traditional backup power which is also offline.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#152

Post by milofeynman »

tnorthcutt wrote: post #140
hourislate wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, it's not that there is no wind. 50% of the Turbines have been shut down do to icing. The also have some NatGas suppliers that suffered freezing damage. So it's a combination of things that are adding up. I'm in North Texas and I can't remember temps this low in the last 30 years. It's about 13 degrees (- 10 C) at the moment and it looks like it is going to get a lot colder in the coming days.

The forecast looks to be warmer after Monday, no?

Tuesday 2am is the lowest we'll see around North Dallas. 2°F is current prediction

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#154

Post by xxpor »

sjg007 wrote: post #145
maxerickson wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric heat is great if you don't use heat consistently. Relatively inexpensive up front, low maintenance, etc.

Central air and a natural gas furnace are both on the same duct system and low maintenance.

Electric heat doesn't need any duct system though, which is nice. Also, no chimney to worry about. For places with low-co2 footprint electricity, it makes a lot of sense.

Granted, down in TX central AC is a lot more important than worrying about heat for a once-every-30-years cold situation.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#155

Post by unethical_ban »

eckza wrote: post #81

It's curious that the current tide of public opinion reckons that we're all going to be in EVs in 10-15 years, when the grid nearly collapses under the weight of everybody plugging in a heater and turning on Netflix at the same time.

What's your point? That EV conversion shouldn't be a goal? That because of a freak, instant spike in demand in 2020 means grids and production can't be more robust in 2035?

A TV pulls what, 50-100 watts? A space heater pulls 1500W on high. Now think about many people who, for better or worse, are running multiple space heaters in their house. Now imagine millions of households doing that, on two days' notice.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#156

Post by TylerE »

jjeaff wrote: post #64
rossdavidh wrote: post #4

Texan here. I tried, on Thursday, to buy a space heater; not only was the hardware store out, they told me a list of other places around town that were also out. Most homes use natural gas for heat, but I think a lot of space heaters are probably turned on right now. I also have to wonder how an everyone-videoconference-from-home society changes electricity usage? Not saying it has a significant impact, just wonderin…

I'm thinking it must take quite a bit more energy to heat all those big sprawling Texas homes to a comfortable temp during the day than the relative efficiency you can get for heating a building full of tightly packed offices. But this would be more of an issue with cooling since it is hotter mid-day. Whereas with cold, it gets colder at night, and most people are at home at night anyway.

OTOH, the homes are probably gonna be heated somewhat anyway, even if no one as homes, and if the offices are shutdown, it's probably a net win.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#158

Post by kevinventullo »

jeffbee wrote: post #135
xxpor wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CA power is hilariously expensive compared to the rest of the country. 10c is much closer to average.

The weighted average price is 10.54¢ per kwh. In California it's 16. Both 5 and 35¢ are pretty poor estimates.

I paid $.36 last month living an hour north of SF.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#159

Post by axiolite »

gregwebs wrote: post #138

Do power saving recommendations given out here to reduce consumption such as "don't use the oven" help in the winter given that wasted electricity ends up as heat? Or is this given by the electricity company hoping that they have natural gas to heat their house with instead?

Beside natural gas, heat pumps have become popular. Ballpack a heat pump at about 1/3rd as much electricity for a given amount of heat, compared to a resistive heater. Even (larger capacity) hot water heaters come with heat pumps now.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#160

Post by jeffbee »

kevinventullo wrote: post #158
jeffbee wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The weighted average price is 10.54¢ per kwh. In California it's 16. Both 5 and 35¢ are pretty poor estimates.

I paid $.36 last month living an hour north of SF.

Average or marginal? Most PG&E customers have a “baseline allowance” with a higher marginal cost as you draw more energy over the month.
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